#us futures

New Post has been published on http://www.brianbrown.net/2014/10/10/heres-a-super-quick-guide-to-what-traders-are-talking-about-amid-global-market-dive/

Here's A Super-Quick Guide To What Traders Are Talking About Amid Global Market Dive

REUTERS/Shannon StapletonA trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Dec. 5, 2008.

From Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a quick look at what traders are talking about this big global sell-off:

Good Morning! US Futures under sharp pressure (but off lows), with NDX off 90bp and Russell 75bp as Semi numbers come in weak, Growth concerns mount, and Ebola fears in UK hit overnight. The Damage in Energy complex continues — WTI is off 1.5% (was off 2.5% earlier), and Brent remains under the weight of heavy put positioning at $90. Resource stocks remain under sharp pressure in London and Aussie, as the Coal complex continues to reel from China’s surprise tariff announcement yesterday. The DAX is getting whacked for 2.2% in VERY heavy volume, as it takes out YTD lows — Consumer stocks are off nearly 3%. It wasn’t any prettier in Asia, as a Breakdown in Hong Kong talks saw the Hang Seng lose nearly 2%, and Shanghai finally retreats from an 8day winning streak. Aussie was hit for 2% as Miners were hit sharply — Only Taiwan closed green in Asia … We have 4 Fed speakers today, and they all represent the most “hawkish” opinions. After the EU close, we get ratings updates from SP on Finland, France, EFSF sovereign rating — Fitch on Portugal — possibly Moody’s on Italy, Latvia and DBRS on Italy, Spain, the Netherlands.

Sovereigns have a bid again today, with the US 10YY off 2bp to 2.29% into the 3day weekend (US Credit closed Monday), and German Bunds yielding 88bp. Continue to expect growth stocks to remain under pressure, as Euro Inflation Swaps are hitting fresh lows this AM. The $ is making gains against Euro and Yen, the latter breaching Y108 support again. The stronger dollar is a headwind for commodities, and most everything is solidly in the red. Industrial metals like Copper and Silver are off near 1%, while even safe haven gold is retreating. The focus remains on the Energy complex, which sees Brent testing the 2012 lows, while WTI’s 2012 lows remain down $10 from here. Only Natty is bid this morning — The AG complex is all solidly in the red into WASDE data later today. Today we get US Import prices at 8:30, Fed’s Plosser (hawk) Speaks on Monetary Policy at 9, there is NO POMO at 11 — at 12 we get WASDE data for Agriculture, at 1 we get Baker Hughes Rig Count and Fed’s George (hawk) Speaks on Economy, Fisher (hawk) speaks at 2:10, at 3 Fed’s Lacker (hawk) Speaks on Financial Firm Bankruptcy at 3:30 gets us “Commitment of Traders” data  

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New Post has been published on http://www.brianbrown.net/2014/10/09/heres-a-quick-guide-to-what-traders-are-talking-about-this-morning-dia-spy-qqq-tlt-iwm/

Here's A Quick Guide To What Traders Are Talking About This Morning (DIA, SPY, QQQ, TLT, IWM)

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Good morning!

Yields are falling after stocks had a huge rally yesterday.

Via Dave Lutz of JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are chattering about this morning:

Good Morning – US Futures are holding yesterday’s gains, led by a 30bp pop in the Russell, but Nasdaq and SP just dipped red.   Yesterday’s action had the classic feel of a short-cover across the board – we saw capitulation in Energy (XOP, but not WTI) – and it’s Important we get follow through in the Miners – GDXJ/GDX were among the first commodity ETFs to crack.  GDXJ closed 13% above its low, and bid is up 1% now.  The FTSE is under slight pressure as BOE stays unchanged – Germany just reversed it’s 1% gain to slide towards unchanged, with volume pacing slightly heavy – Draghi speaking at 11 should be a focus into the EU close as we got Bad trade data out of Germany putting more pressure on the Bundesbank.  Over in Asia, Weaker Dollar against the Yen hit Tokyo, Nikkei lost 80bp despite better machinery orders – while Shanghai continued marching forward, India recovered 1% and Miners boosted Aussie, ASX gaining over 1%.   

The US 10YY is dropping quick, breaching 2.29% this morning – sharp demand for Sov paper overseas has Germany’s 10YY taking out lows, and  seeing Record Lows in some Sovereigns:  Portugal, Spain, France, Finnish.   Japan’s 10YY is under 50bp (US yielding 1.75% more), and Germany’s 10YY at 86bp (US 1.4% higher) – that’s keeping a sharp bid under Treasuries.   Dovish tailwinds in last 24hours from the Fed minutes (idea of being “lower for longer”), as well as speeches by China’s Premier Li (Targeted Easing) Kuroda (BOJ has “many options” for additional easing), Bernanke (Stock prices are “within historical norms” relative to returns on bonds) all pushing yields lower.   Fed Fund Futures this Am have pushed the 1st Fed hike to November ’15, from Oct ’15 last week.   That “Policy Sensitive” 2YY is coming in sharply as hawks retreat. 

The $ is under some pressure this morning, losing ground against Yen, Euro and Pound.   Despite this tailwind, the energy complex is under pressure, with WTI, Brent, Natty and Gasoline all red.   The upshot continues in Gold, with the metal up 2%, and beaten-up silver up 3%.  Copper is moving higher, so we may see some follow through in Industrials today.    We get Weekly claims at 8:30, Fed’s Bullard (centrist) at 9:45, Wholesale Inventories at 10 – there is NO POMO at 11, but we do get ECB’s Draghi, Fed’s Fischer (Hawk) Speaking on Europe.  At 12, the beleaguered retail sector will be getting Chain Store Sales Trends, and we have a 30Y auction at 1.   The afternoon closes with 3 Fed speakers – Fed’s Tarullo (dove) Speaks on Bank Regulation Panel at 1:10, Fed’s Fischer (hawk) Speaks on Global Economy Panel at 1:30, and Fed’s Williams (dove) Speaks on the Economy at 3:40. 

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New Post has been published on http://www.brianbrown.net/2014/10/10/heres-a-super-quick-guide-to-what-traders-are-talking-about-as-global-market-dive/

Here's A Super-Quick Guide To What Traders Are Talking About As Global Market Dive

REUTERS/Shannon StapletonA trader holds on to a phone on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange December 5, 2008.

From Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a quick look at what traders are talking about this big global selloff:

Good Morning!   US Futures under sharp pressure (but off lows), with NDX off 90bp and Russell 75bp as Semi numbers come in weak, Growth concerns mount, and Ebola fears in UK hit overnight.   The Damage in Energy complex continues – WTI is off 1.5% (was off 2.5% earlier), and Brent remains under the weight of heavy put positioning at $90.   Resource stocks remain under sharp pressure in London and Aussie, as the Coal complex continues to reel from China’s surprise tariff announcement yesterday.    The DAX is getting whacked for 2.2% in VERY heavy volume, as it takes out YTD lows – Consumer stocks are off nearly 3%.    It wasn’t any prettier in Asia, as a Breakdown in Hong Kong talks saw the Hang Seng lose nearly 2%, and Shanghai finally retreats from an 8day winning streak.    Aussie was hit for 2% as Miners were hit sharply – Only Taiwan closed green in Asia…  We have 4 Fed speakers today, and they all represent the most “hawkish” opinions.  After the EU close, we get ratings updates from SP on Finland, France, EFSF sovereign rating – Fitch on Portugal – possibly Moody’s on Italy, Latvia and DBRS on Italy, Spain, the Netherlands.

Sovereigns have a bid again today, with the US 10YY off 2bp to 2.29% into the 3day weekend (US Credit closed Monday), and German Bunds yielding 88bp.   Continue to expect growth stocks to remain under pressure, as Euro Inflation Swaps are hitting fresh lows this AM.    The $ is making gains against Euro and Yen, the latter breaching Y108 support again.   The stronger dollar is a headwind for commodities, and most everything is solidly in the red.  Industrial metals like Copper and Silver are off near 1%, while even safe haven gold is retreating.   The focus remains on the Energy complex, which sees Brent testing the 2012 lows, while WTI’s 2012 lows remain down $10 from here.  Only Natty is bid this morning – The AG complex is all solidly in the red into WASDE data later today.    Today we get US Import prices at 8:30, Fed’s Plosser (hawk) Speaks on Monetary Policy at 9, there is NO POMO at 11 – at 12 we get WASDE data for Agriculture, at 1 we get Baker Hughes Rig Count and Fed’s George (hawk) Speaks on Economy, Fisher (hawk) speaks at 2:10, at 3 Fed’s Lacker (hawk) Speaks on Financial Firm Bankruptcy at 3:30 gets us “Commitment of Traders” data  

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