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What Are Traders Chatting About Right Now? Energy Junk Bonds And Retailers... (DIA, SPY, SPX, QQQ)

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Stocks Are At All-Time Highs (DIA, SPY, QQQ, TLT, IWM)

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What Are Traders Chatting About? The Japan-Induced 'Scalded-Dog' Formation...

New Post has been published on http://www.brianbrown.net/2014/11/04/what-are-traders-chatting-about-right-now-midterm-elections-and-oil-dia-spy-qqq-tlt-iwm/

What Are Traders Chatting About Right Now? Midterm Elections And Oil... (DIA, SPY, QQQ, TLT, IWM)

Kevork Djansezian/Getty ImagesIt is Election Day in America.Good morning and happy Election Day! From Dave Lutz of JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about this morning: Good Morning! US futures are retreating slightly, led by a 25bp drop in Russell names as the Yield Curve flattens, potentially a headwind for those Regional Fins, which are a large % of the IWM. The markets are being rather resilient near peaks, as the Oil complex got taken apart overnight – WTI and Brent are both off over 2.5% – Headlines Iran Nuke talks near a breakthrough, coupled with Saudi campaigning in Venezuela and Mexico for lower prices to slow Shale production are today’s “reasons”.  EU Markets are acting well, with the DAX up 30bp, but volumes remain quite light on the continent into the ECB meeting – DAX trading 25% light to averages.  Over in Asia, Nikkei popped nearly 3% in 2x volume as they re-open from yesterday’s holiday – China was flat, Aussie was slightly higher, while India was closed. The standout loser was Korea, as the KOSPI was hit as peeps worried plunging yen will hurt exports. The US 10YY is under pressure, down 4bp as Germans flush toward Bunds as the ECB slashes growth forecasts – Bund Yields are near 2week lows, driving US 10YY toward 2.3% again. The $ is under pressure, losing ground as the Yen rebounds – and EUR regains 1.25 against the $ as €5.3bln in options expire at that strike today. Despite the commodity tailwinds, we find most everything in the red as the damage in the Crude Complex probably sparking margin liquidation in other commodities.  Silver and Copper are off 90bp (Slow EU growth) – Corn, Soy and Wheat all off 1% (Higher Crop Yields). While both Brent and WTI are sharply lower, there remains a small bid in Natty Gas as shorts continue to cover there. While today is about the Micro, with a slew of earnings releases scheduled – Other Scheduled Catalysts today include US Trade Balance at 8:30, ISM New York at 9:45, and Factory Orders at 10. After the close we get API data for the Crude Complex, as well as results flowing in from 2014 Mid-Term elections. Some moves from earnings – BABA up 4%, – while HLF is off 15%, S 10% and PCLN 5%

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New Post has been published on http://www.brianbrown.net/2014/11/03/what-are-traders-chatting-about-right-now-the-tailwinds/

What Are Traders Chatting About Right Now? The Tailwinds...

Flickr/ Aleksander Markin via Google ImagesJonesTrading’s Dave Lutz has this morning’s buzz: Good Morning!   US Futures are off small, giving back 15bp of Friday’s rally higher.   We will see how long that lasts, as multiple tailwinds are blowing:  The $/¥ has gone vertical thru 113, Nikkei futures up 5% from Friday’s close (They have Holiday today); Heavy MA headlines as Publicis Offers $3.7 Billion for Sapient, Altice Offers $8.8 Billion for PT Portugal, LH $6B deal for CVD; and Seasonality – Over the past 100 years, the best three-month stretch for stocks has been November through January.   Over in Europe, the DAX is off 50bp in very light volumes as we enter ECB week, where expectations of any follow-through from the BOJ are minimal.   Industrials are among the main laggers in Germany, where PMI comes in a hair light, and Ukraine – Russia seems to be destabilizing, with Rebel elections held over the weekend – sparking further growth concerns.   Over in Asia, Hong Kong fell small, but China popped despite weaker Manufacturing data this weekend.   Aussie was under pressure, Miners a standout loser down under again. The US 10YY is off small, but both German and US yields are well off overnight lows – Credit players are chattering about a potential AAPL Bond sale- They last did a $12B issue in April.   The DXY is stronger, led by gains against Euro and Yen – causing a headwind for commodities.   We continue to see precious metals underperforming, with Silver and Gold heading red right now – while the Grains and Beans remain under pressure.   Right now the Crude complex is mixed, but have rallied 90bp from overnight lows.   As I chattered about all last week, the surprise cold weather in the USA – coupled with a 3Y high short interest, has Natty popping 5% this AM.    Throughout the session today, we will get Auto Sales data – other scheduled catalysts include Fed’s Evans speaking at 9:30, Markit US Manufacturing PMI at 9:45, ISM Manufacturing at 10, ECB’s Nowotny speaks on Policy at 12:30, Dallas Fed’s Fisher speaks on monetary policy at 12:40, and President Obama to meet with Yellen on Economy at 2pm today.   Tomorrow brings us the Mid-Term elections, where odds have ramped significantly of the GOP taking the Senate (NY Times puts at 75%, WaPo 90%+)

SEE ALSO:  10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

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What Are Traders Talking About? Banks, Brazil, Oil... (DIA, SPY, SPX, QQQ)

New Post has been published on http://www.brianbrown.net/2014/10/31/what-are-traders-chatting-about-the-japan-induced-scalded-dog-formation/

What Are Traders Chatting About? The Japan-Induced 'Scalded-Dog' Formation...

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JonesTrading’s Dave Lutz has a roundup of what traders are chatting about right now: Good Morning!   US Futures are in the “Scalded Dog” formation, running well over 1%.  The late afternoon rally on the GPIF news squeezed higher in the overnight, as a double-dose of good news shot Tokyo nearly 5% higher to 7Y peaks (and Nikkei futures are up ANOTHER 2% this AM) – The BOJ said it would expand its annual asset purchases to Y80T from the prior Y60-70T.  Most of the incremental buying would be targeted at JGBs but the pace of stock and property fund purchases would triple, while the GPIF confirmed moving domestic stocks to 25% (vs. 12%), domestic bonds 35% (vs. 60%), foreign stocks 25% (vs. 12%), and foreign bonds 15% (vs. 11%).  In Europe, the DAX is up 2%, led by a nice rebound in the Financials, but volumes remain light.  Over in Asia, the Ruble is collapsing again, despite headlines Ukraine, Russia Reach Deal on Gas Dispute – but the MICEX is still rallying, up 1.5%.   Shanghai added 1.2%, but India leaps another 2% to new all-time highs.    Aussie added 1% despite some of the carnage going on in the Miners.    There is no global sector I could find in the red overnight – China fins among the worst performers, but still added 40bp. The US 10YY is slightly higher, despite a persistent bid in Bunds – after that deflationary CPI print yesterday freaked out the Germans, and their retail sales for December just posted its biggest monthly fall since May 2007.    The real story though is that Greenback, as it leaps near Y112, and looks to take out 2014 peaks against Euro.  Stronger dollar is a huge headwind for commodities this AM – but it’s encouraging to see a bid under Industrial commods like Copper and Lumber, albeit small.   Gold is not happy today off 2%, hit with deflation, a stronger dollar, and momentum/technical selling.  Mixed picture in Energy – with the Oils off roughly 1% and nearing last week’s lows, while the Ukraine gas deal, coupled with cold weather, has that massive short base in Natty bidding it up almost 3%.  Scheduled Catalysts today include PCE at 8:30, at 9:45 we get Chicago Purchasing Manager (Released 9:42 for paying subs), at 1 watch Natty/Oil on the Baker Hughes Rig Count, and 3:30 brings that “Commitment of Traders” data – Late tonight we get Chinese PMI. We have a Russell and SP month End rebalance today on the close – more details will be in WTAW – I’ll be watching today: REITS as Japanese property REITS leapt over 11% overnight / Watch for a sharp rebound in the SOX after MCHP’s guidance is much better than feared / Capitulatory selling in the Miners, as GDX/GDXJ are making all-time lows this AM / Oil ETFs with the commodity looking to go out October under more pressure – heavy short interest there, if Oil pops today, u will see those 3 ETFs squeeze / Natty – Due North, been saying it all week / Finally – look for people setting up in front of the “Good Harbor” rebalance that may occur Monday – Since the wild session on Oct 15th, The SP has climbed 10%+ from a intra-day low, while the 10YY is 45bp higher.  In what can only be a amazing coincidence, that’s when Good Harbor went to “25% large cap and 75% treasuries”

SEE ALSO:  10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

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New Post has been published on http://www.brianbrown.net/2014/10/30/what-are-traders-chatting-about-right-now-stocks-the-dollar-german-inflation/

What Are Traders Chatting About Right Now? Stocks, The Dollar, German Inflation...

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JonesTrading’s Dave Lutz has a roundup of what traders are chatting about right now: Good Morning!  Us futures are starting weaker this Am, led by a 80bp drop in the Russell.  The Selloff accelerated this AM when deflationary German CPI data got a bid under Bunds, driving flows from Equities.  The DAX is off 1.5% in decent volume, trading 30% heavier than normal.   The EU banks are under decent selling pressure again, led by a 3% drop in Spanish Fins.   Slowdown concerns are weighing on Industrials and Material issues in Germany as well.   Over in Asia, the MICEX has given up pre-morning gains, despite a massive squeeze in the Ruble on reports a Gas deal will be signed.  The Nikkei gained 70bp as the Yen fell, While Shanghai gained 80bp as more vauge reports of stimulus circulate.   Hang Seng was under pressure on the surging HK$ (Tied to USD) – While consumer and Fins propelled Aussie in the green, despite pressure in the Miners.   We continue to focus on Emerging Markets – Watch EWZ and PBR as Brazil raises rates overnight, Brazil is 10% of the EEM. The US 10YY is off a few bp, mirroring the drop in German 10’s as the Euros chase yield.   Yellen is due to speak at 9amET although shouldn’t address policy (giving remarks on Diversity).  The $ is gaining against both Euro and Yen, the latter getting upside Y109 as we await the BOJ’s anticipated downgrade of their economy tonight.   The $’s Focus is on US GDP at 8:30ET.  Street at 3%, but peeps have been ramping higher of late – The top 5 forecasters on Bloomberg are all above 3% – as high as 3.5% – With the stronger $, commodities have a headwind.  We are seeing a sharp drop in Metals, with Silver breaking down 2.6% and Gold off 1.8% and nearing a $1200 test as Indian imports collapse and Inflation vanishes (Citi Cuts Global Inflation Outlook by Most in 5 Years, German CPI comes in at -30bp m/m, and US breakevens drop.   The Oil complex is under pressure this AM, as OPEC Secretary General sees no reason for panic on prices, and reports mount US shale is profitable at $70.   Continue to see the cover happening in the Grains and Beans – While Natty Gas continues to see a short-cover into a cold weekend in the Northeast.    Scheduled Catalysts today include GDP and Weekly Claims Data at 8:30, Yellen speaks at 9, we have a $29B 7Y auction at 1, and at 2:15 ECB’s Linde Speaks in Madrid – while Pre-Opening Earnings include ABC, APD, APO, FIG, HAR, IVZ, K, MA, MGM, OAK, and TWC while CCI, GPRO, LNKD, MCHP, NEM, ONNN, SBUX, and WU come after the close.

SEE ALSO:  10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

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