I've got a leftist friend who argues that negative coverage of Venezuela's left is just building a pretext for US meddling/invasion. Ignoring the merits of the specific question, is it likely the US will mess with any Latin American governments in the near future? Lately it seems to only target the Middle East with that sort of thing. (Come to think of it, is there a clear reason why the US stopped overthrowing Latin American governments?)
Iâm not a Leftist or a Latin America specialist, so I donât know as much about this subject as I should, but for understanding US foreign policy during the contest with the USSR, I think itâs enough to understand that the US believed that the USSR was an existential threat to the US, and anything that helped the USSR increased that threat.
The US was especially anxious about communism. The USSR might have influence in non-communist states, but those states would always be less threatening than communist states, whether or not those communists happened to be Soviet clients. They were far less likely to directly threaten the US or its allies. They made far fewer credible or lasting commitments to the USSR. And they did not spread international communism.
That was mostly true, but the emphasis on âcommunismâ biased US threat perceptions. The US had false negatives (Cuba), false positives (Iran, Guatemala), true negatives that nonetheless threatened US interests (Egypt), and true positives that many US policymakers were convinced were false positives (China, Vietnam). It was all a big headache.
I think that helps explain Latin America â the US helped some sanguinary men because they promised to suppress communists, and when the USSR disappeared, the US just didnât care all that much, which is why Daniel Ortega has been President of Nicaragua for a decade now, with nary a peep from Washington  â but Latin Americaâs a bit different because the US had been overthrowing Latin American governments for decades before the USSR showed up.
So what was all that about? Iâm not as familiar with classic American Imperialism as I should be, but I suppose it was driven by an alliance between concentrated economic interests and American nationalists â the former to do the plotting, the later to do the voting and the shooting â with a different balance between the two according to the situation.
I know that some folks still think that individual capitalist interests still drive US foreign policy, but Iâm unconvinced. That was all before America built up a real security state â the pack of suits that make up Americaâs ruling mind â when concentrated economic interests had more pull. Washington didnât have the same Establishment back then. It didnât even have a Pentagon. Now itâs Washington that does the plotting â Americaâs military-political Establishment â not the capitalists. No, they arenât very good at it.
So if Washington isnât doing the anti-communist thing, and it isnât doing the capital-I Imperialist thing, what is it doing?Â
Washington has a few perennial obsessions. Preventing Islamist terrorism; containing Russia, Iran, and China; preventing nuclear proliferation; managing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; supporting democracy movements. Those are all big projects. Washington picked them because it thought they were good fits for American values, interests, and capabilities.
Latin America is smaller than that. As best I can tell, US policy towards Latin America just doesnât have the centrality it did in the Age of Imperialism or the Cold War. Americaâs Latin America problems are mundane. Controlling migration. Suppressing the drug trade. Preventing state failure. Itâs not redemptive. Itâs not heroic. Itâs just a problem, and not an especially important one.
Iâm sure the US is still ticking along doing sanguinary things in Latin America, but there are fewer people around convinced that those sanguinary things are actually heroic, there are fewer people to push for them and fewer people to sign up for the, and so Washington has fewer bold and stupid plots to work on. Fewer Oliver Norths, fewer Iran-Contras.
Now, that might change. The Establishment is opportunistic. If the situation on the ground is right, and Washington thinks it can do something â something redemptive, something heroic â it will jump. Itâs wary, itâs chastened, but everyone wants redemption. Everyone wants to be the hero. Weâre all just waiting for the right moment.
If Venezuela starts coming apart, Washington might jump. It might want to. It might need to.