#ufc280

You can’t take anything away from O’Malley here. He came out to fight and was wildly more successful than anyone thought he was going to be. When he is given space to operate and throw volume and big shots, he is going to hurt the guy in front of him like he did Yan. Especially if they’re caught at the end of his range.

I had a whole thing I was going write for this fight. Took notes and everything, but life gets in the way of my MMA obsession so I’m going to dump it all here in your answer instead.

Charles’ guard is overrated, but only in the sense that EVERYONE’s guard is overrated in MMA. It just is not a winning position in this sport. If Islam gets Charles down and can keep him from instantly creating space to get up or sweep, he’s probably going to beat him up in that position. I don’t trust Oliveira’s gas tank. We’ve seen him wilt against big physical fighters before like Felder (granted, that was from Oliveira trying to push a ridiculous grappling pace on Felder but still) and dude fights like he has to be back in the locker room in like 5 minutes. Everything is a sprint with him, including his guard. So him throwing up armbars for like 3 minutes before Islam flattens him out and beats him down makes sense. And unlike against Poirier and Gaethje, the guard isn’t a rest area. If Makhachev hurts Oliveira in the clinch should they tie up or Oliveira falls down for whatever reason (KD, TD, tripped, etc), that’s not a rest position. 

BUT my question for Makhachev is how many people have engaged him on their own terms? Guys like Hooker, Green, and Moises just willingly gave him the center of the cage because, ironically enough, they didn’t want to get taken down. That’s also how they all fight a lot of the time but still, Islam is from a camp that specializes in cage wrestling. They’re entire identity is based around putting opponents up against the cage or near there and getting them down and using the limited space to not let them back up. Against Tsarukyan, Islam didn’t really need to chase a target either because Tsarukyan was actively trying to outwrestle him. Drew Dober is a bit of a boxer-puncher but he’s never been a guy with any type of serious range tools. He’s been known to be takedown-able. The only person I can recall being the aggressor against Makhachev is Davi Ramos. Ramos is a great grappler that Makhachev didn’t bother trying to takedown. That was in part cause Ramos is a limited striker who relies on big explosive movement and Makhachev was picking him off as he charged in. But how much of that was Ramos just not giving Makhachev the read he wanted to push the wrestling? Oliveira probably doesn’t fare well on the ground against Makhachev for long stretches, but if Oliveira’s confidence in his wrestling/grappling carries him to be the aggressor on the feet? If it leads to him throwing sharp strikes from range like he was doing against Poirier and Gaethje that forces Makhachev back? Maybe he doesn’t need to be.

A few weeks ago I said Khabib was a better striker than Islam. Islam has certainly become better as a striker from the days he got KTFO by Adriano Martins. He’s cleaner with his technique. He has more variety, especially with the kicks. But I said what I said because Khabib’s striking had strategic variety rather than weapon variety. It wasn’t always pretty or fluid, but Khabib’s offense was always able to engage an opponent on multiple levels. He’d be able to get an opponent to commit to a jab or paw out with his striking/feints before ducking under that lead hand to turn it to a takedown. He was able to take aggressive opponents and tie them up. He was able to use the threat of the level change to get his strikes off. He had a nice stiff jab that he was able to angle off of to take breaks slow the pace of fights down so he could gather his energy back after high paced rounds. I just haven’t seen that level of craft put into Makhachev’s game, in part cause he’s been fighting guys who are willing to give him all the positions he wants in the poor assumption that they will be safe from his wrestling there. It’s not really a knock on Islam but it’s a big question that is hanging over his head imo.

What a performance from Makhachev! Just looked amazing out there, both on the feet and on the mat. He was a much more confident boxer, allowing Oliveira to close distance and then tagging him with counter shots, including the one that put Do Bronx down for the arm triangle submission. It was a lovely hook off a Do Bronx flying knee. The wrestling wasn’t really there tonight. Do Bronx defended well along the fence and when he did end up on his back, he got up. But he’s so damn strong from top position.

Charles, I don’t know what the gameplan was. I liked the pressure. But pulling guard? Wading in on the backstepping counter puncher with no distance tools? Set your stuff up brother.

TJ should have never been allowed to go back after his shoulder popped in the first round.

Tj’s shoulder popped in the first. I don’t think Aljo and his team realized until they stood back up towards the end of the round and they were screaming at him to attack it. He did (not with the same ferocity that Aldo attacked KZ’s popped shoulder). He even went for a D’Arce on the popped shoulder side. Lucky for TJ, he managed to spin out before it got locked on too tight. But by the end of it, he was getting his ass beat.

Almost feel for Aljo cause he’s getting these wins in the most bizarre ways possible, so people aren’t going to give him any credit. I will say I was curious heading into this about TJ’s TD defense. Cruz (and Garbrandt I think) got him down but couldn’t hold him there. Granted, neither guy is a truly great top control grappler like Aljo is. Hard to say any of that was really tested here as TJ’s shoulder dislocating was really the end of this being a competitive fight.