#ufc201

Tom Holland with fans after the UFC.

Welterweight:

Tyron Woodley (beat Robbie Lawler) vs. Stephen Thompson: Woodley’s somewhat shocking first-round knockout of Robbie Lawler made the new champ, in some circles, a bit of an unwelcome party crasher at the top of the welterweight division - Lawler’s had a close to the fight of the year-level performance every time out as champ and had some interesting fights on the horizon, while Woodley’s been inactive and even now is trying to call his own shot once again, demanding Nick Diaz or Georges St. Pierre. I don’t think either of those are going to happen, and the clear number one contender is Thompson, fresh off a decision win against Rory MacDonald in June. It’ll be an interesting fight, too, with Woodley’s wrestling and knockout ability offering an interesting test to Thompson’s high-level karate.

Robbie Lawler (lost to Tyron Woodley) vs. Demian Maia/Carlos Condit (UFC on Fox 21) winner: On the plus side, Lawler should remain in the title picture and you can step up a really interesting number-one contender’s bout between the former champ and the winner of August’s Fox main event. Lawler and Condit already put on a fight of the year to kick off 2016 back at UFC 195, and Maia was always an interesting possibility for a title fight during Lawler’s reign, given how Lawler’s high-violence style would interact with Maia’s slick grappling.

Matt Brown (lost to Jake Ellenberger) vs. Tarec Saffiedine: Brown’s on a bit of a skid, and he’s an exciting action fighter and general fun guy to have around, along with a viable free-TV headliner, if he has some momentum, so let’s give him a bit of an easier win (although most assumed Ellenberger was that). You can go with an unranked opponent - and maybe I probably should - but I like the idea of a bout with Tarec Saffiedine (which fell through a few different times in 2015), given that Saffiedine probably doesn’t have the type of power that could knock Brown out if he gets over-aggressive. Plus it’ll have some high stakes as far as each guy trying to stay relevant as a fringe top-ten fighter.

Jake Ellenberger (beat Matt Brown) vs. Alberto Mina: Ellenberger’s win over Brown was a weird one, and not just because it was so unexpected - Ellenberger didn’t look particularly spry and gassed out in about half a minute, but, well, he managed to knock out Matt Brown in under two minutes, so who can complain. Still, this was much more Ellenberger saving his job than portending any sort of return to being a top contender, so he’ll be a solid guy to use as sort of a gatekeeper for rising prospects. Let’s try Ellenberger against Hong Kong’s Alberto Mina, who looked good and somewhat explosive in a win over Mike Pyle over International Fight Week, but has been somewhat inconsistent and shown gas tank issues of his own over his UFC career.

Jorge Masvidal (beat Ross Pearson) vs. Ryan LaFlare: Masvidal’s in a bit of a weird position - this win stopped the bleeding of a bit of a skid thanks to a lot of close decision losses, and he’s probably close to being a top-fifteen welterweight, but that skid also sort of halted any momentum he’d have towards the top of the division. Add in the fact that Masvidal likes to fight fairly frequently and options are surprisingly limited, so let’s go with LaFlare, a Long Island-based wrestler who would be a solid test - if Masvidal fights smartly, he should win it easily, but LaFlare is also more than capable of taking Masvidal and grinding out a win. (And, again, given Masvidal typically wanting to take fights as soon as possible, the actual call is probably just Masvidal vs. whoever’s opponent gets injured at welterweight next.)

Michael Graves (drew Bojan Velickovic) vs. Sergio Moraes: It’s always weird booking guys off of draws, because there’s no obvious sign about what direction to head in next. I still like Graves as a prospect and want to see him develop further, so let’s put the aggressive wrestler against Sergio Moraes, a BJJ stylist whose ground game matches up with Graves in a pretty interesting manner.

Bojan Velickovic (drew Michael Graves) vs. Sheldon Westcott: Velickovic looked good here - his size gave Graves trouble and he showed a pretty solid striking skill-set, even if he did show a tendency to invite a grappling match when it didn’t exactly benefit him. I’d like to see how he matches up with Canadian grappler Sheldon Westcott - Westcott’s another guy who’s massive for welterweight, albeit with a much worse gas tank than Velickovic, and it’d be an interesting test to see if Westcott can take Velickovic down and tap him out before running out of energy.

Women’s Strawweight:

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (beat Rose Namajunas) vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk: Kowalkiewicz looked excellent in getting the upset win over Rose Namajunas, and a title fight with Joanna Jedrzejczyk is the obvious next direction from pretty much every angle. The only question is if Jedrzejczyk/Kowalkiewicz should headline a smaller show in their native Poland or be a co-main on a bigger card in New York City, which has the largest Polish population in the U.S.

Rose Namajunas (lost to Karolina Kowalkiewicz) vs. Jessica Andrade/Joanne Calderwood (UFC 203) winner: Despite a disappointing loss, Namajunas still showed a ton to like - she was actually getting the better of things when it was a distance kickboxing fight early on, and what figured to be an advantage in the clinch (given Rose’s takedown and submission ability) just sort of wound up not being there, resulting in some vicious knees to the body by Kowalkiewicz that pretty much left Namajunas without a gas tank. Rose is still developing nicely, and there’s no reason to move her too far down the ladder, so let’s put her against September’s Andrade/Calderwood winner - it’ll be an interesting fight against either a long striker (Calderwood) or a short buzzsaw (Andrade) of an opponent.

Light Heavyweight:

Nikita Krylov (beat Ed Herman) vs. Jimi Manuwa: Nikita Krylov is on a five-fight winning streak and may actually be a top ten light heayweight, somehow. This was actually the first fight where I’d describe him as looking “good”, since he was finally patient and just sort of let the openings come to him for pressuring the action, which he eventually capitalized on with a vicious head kick knockout of Ed Herman. Might as well see how far up the ladder Krylov can go, and the next obvious step up is England’s Jimi Manuwa, a talented brawler who’s been a bit inactive lately, but would make for a good opponent on an upcoming European show - UFC 204, maybe?

Ed Herman (lost to Nikita Krylov) vs. Patrick Cummins: Herman gave it a go, hanging in there amidst some abuse by the more athletic and aggressive Krylov before being put down, but this pretty much cemented him as a crafty gatekeeper in his new division. Let’s put him against Patrick Cummins, who the prospect shine is quickly wearing off of, since it’ll be an interesting fight - Cummins can take him down at will, but Herman has a crafty submission game and Cummins can’t take a punch (as slow as Herman’s are), so there should always be some tension.

Bantamweight:

Erik Perez (beat Francisco Rivera) vs. Johnny Eduardo: Perez got a solid win here, and cemented himself as a still-improving sort of jack of all trades, master of none, and it’s probably time to see if he can make his way back into the top fifteen. So let’s give him veteran striker Johnny Eduardo, who should provide enough craft to be a solid test.

Francisco Rivera (lost to Erik Perez) vs. Rob Font: It’ll be interesting to see if UFC cuts Rivera - he’s an excellent action fighter, but he’s also dropped five of his last six, as controversial as some of those defeats were. If they keep him around, I’d love to see him against Font, another bantamweight with his back against the wall who has a tendency to incite a back and forth brawl.

Lightweight:

Ross Pearson (lost to Jorge Masvidal) vs. Stevie Ray/Alan Patrick (UFC Fight Night 95) winner: I’m assuming it’s back to 155 for Pearson, who looked overmatched by the size (along with the skill) of Jorge Masvidal. Coming off two losses, it’s a hard needle to thread with Pearson - he’s looked good enough in his losses at lightweight that he’s hard to write off and send down the card, but he’s also in need of a win. I think a solid compromise will be the winner of the rumored Ray/Patrick matchup in Brasilia this September - Ray’s a solid prospect, Patrick’s a solid veteran, and a bout with Pearson could probably go either way for each.

Damien Brown (beat Cesar Arzamendia) vs. Sage Northcutt: Australian veteran Brown was able to put away the brittle Arzamendia in fairly short order, keeping him around a bit more as a lower-level lightweight. Brown has some solid skills but doesn’t particularly stand out anywhere, which makes him as good a choice as any to face Sage Northcutt as UFC desperately tries to get Northcutt some experience.

Cesar Arzamendia (lost to Damien Brown) vs. Damir Hadzovic/Yusuke Kasuya (UFC 203) loser: Arzamendia is almost surely getting cut after losing two straight and showing an inability to get hit, but if he gets a third UFC bout for the purposes of this exercise, let’s put him against the loser of September’s Hadzovic/Kasuya bout, who is almost surely getting cut as well.

Flyweight:

Wilson Reis (beat Hector Sandoval) vs. Louis Smolka: Reis pretty much held serve after his title fight here against Demetrious Johnson fell through due to injury - Sandoval could’ve been a tricky test for the Brazilian, but Reis more or less ran through him and got an early submission. There are a few different directions to go, since the upper reaches of flyweight are rather fluid, but let’s put Reis against Smolka - they’d both be fresh contenders for Johnson, and matching them against each other ensures that one of those fights will stay alive, and with some added momentum.

Ryan Benoit (beat Fredy Serrano) vs. John Moraga: Benoit looked fine on ten days notice against a raw opponent - he’s a weird one for flyweight, possessing a solid striking game but little in terms of grappling. I suggested he’d be a solid fight for John Moraga after Moraga looked flat and lost a stunning decision to prospect Matheus Nicolau, and let’s keep that going - it’ll be a solid benchmark of exactly where Moraga is at this point.

Hector Sandoval (lost to Wilson Reis) vs. Geane Herrera: Sandoval hit Reis pretty well, but got overwhelmed in the grappling department - a bit disappointing, but not bad considering the short notice and level of competition. Zhikui Yao is an option if you just want to give Sandoval a win, as he’s worth keeping around, but I’d like to see him against Geane Herrera, a fellow athletic action prospect in a fight that should provide some fireworks.

Fredy Serrano (lost to Ryan Benoit) vs. Danny Martinez: Serrano is such a weird, raw fighter, and he showed it in this fight, with an offense that pretty much consisted of giant slams, axe kicks, and winging punches. He’s obviously an athlete and has some potential, but at 36, who knows if he’ll reach it - plus flyweight has surprisingly few fighters that Serrano could get experience and an easy win against. The closest thing, I suppose, would be Martinez, who’s a decent wrestler and not much else, and who’s been out of action for a while, although that may still be too much for Serrano.

Heavyweight:

Anthony Hamilton (beat Damian Grabowski) vs. Francis Ngannou: Well, that was unexpected. Not so much that he won, but that he did so in just fourteen seconds, since Hamilton hasn’t looked particularly explosive or dynamic. He’ll be a solid next test for uber-prospect Francis Ngannou, and the big win by Hamilton only makes it even more enticing of a matchup.