Jul 10, 2025
[Tipping Point]
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[Tipping Point]
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Donald Trump's approval on immigration has collapsed 17 points since taking office, and support for abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement has swung 50 points since Sept. 2024.
It is not normal for the public to move 50 points on an issue in just a little over a year.
In their classic 1992 book The Rational Public, political scientists Benjamin Page and Robert Shapiro documented that collective public opinion is remarkably stable. Americans’ views on most issues shift only a few percentage points per decade, much of it due to older cohorts being replaced by younger ones. Persuasion is limited, so the aggregate is coherent and slow to adjust. Politicians, pundits, and campaigns all try to move the polls, and mostly fail.
Page and Shapiro argue that opinion change requires new information to meet five conditions simultaneously: it must be received by enough people, understood, relevant to the policy question/issue domain, discrepant with prior beliefs, and credible. Most information fails at least one of these tests, which is why opinion on issues is usually stable. (More on this in an APSR article Page and Shapiro wrote with Glenn Dempsey before The Rational Public was published here.)
But when a major event — or sustained coverage of undeniable evidence — satisfies all five conditions at once, opinion can move quickly. Scholars of public opinion and political communication call this an information-diffusion threshold: the point at which information satisfies the five conditions above and starts moving priors en masse. I’m going to call this a “tipping point:” a point in time when a new piece of information causes many individuals to update their opinions in the same direction at roughly the same time, producing a noticeable break in the polls and notable, directionally aligned changes in policy.
Tipping point
Man has released the amount of CO2 and other gases and toxins into the air in 200 years that would take earth to do in 200,000 years naturally. Shit is gonna hit the fan really soon. When it does the only thing to cool the earth will be a large meteor years after impact or a volcano that will cut out the sun for years and so such our ability to grow food. Either way we all die sooner or later. The sixth earth extinction. Thank you industrial age of humans.
TIPPING POINT
JOHN MCINTOSH
Today marks a major ‘Tipping Point’ in the world-dream as many key issues converge simultaneously. Within any Great SHIFT [as this world-dream moves quickly into an era of Peace and Light] there are ‘waves’ where ‘voids’ are replaced with periods of ‘high drama’. Such a moment is happening now. The incessant buffeting of this SHIFT has been felt at some level by ‘ALL’ these last 2+ years and by some few for over a decade, but today is a line in the sand … remember – this is a dream line, just an appearance in the fabric of illusions that defines the universe.
Nevertheless, most of the almost invisible puzzle pieces put into place these last 10 years will soon become visible for all to witness. The structures of dysfunctionality that have fallen away will become very apparent. A small percentage have felt this through sporadically uplifting financial benefits, but most have felt the erratic tensions as they touched their lives in less agreeable ways. This is the inevitable ‘shaking’ that occurs when tyranny collapses.
Be assured that almost all of what appears in the mainstream arena is a ‘pantomime’ [not true] and what is ‘really’ happening is benign, life enriching and increasingly beautiful as ALL will soon experience.
“THE GREAT SHIFT ‘explained”- The World You Have Known Is Collapsing. Here Is Why It’s a GIFT https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08795Y7MT
BOOKS by John McIntosh https://www.johnmcintosh.info/copy-of-books
Happy Birthday to my wonderful wife Julie!
Eventually you reach a point when you stop lying about your age and start bragging about it.
Will Rogers
Anya is live and ready to show you everything. Watch her strip, dance, and perform exclusive shows just for you. Interact in real-time and make your fantasies come true.
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Treehopper. Note, it is not THE treehopper but one of 91 known species in Maryland and thousands world wide. Which one is a great question, have a side and a top shot coming so maybe we can work that out. In the mean time realize that these crazy architectural beings are common and you kill or brush them aside in your yard all the time (if you haven't sprayed it down for mosquitoes that is). This one found on the research lands of USDA now identified as a possible private rail yard for the MAGLEV. this minibeast treehopper was captured by entomologist in training Danie Phan and photographed by biology college boy Anders Croft. maybe this landscape will be there for them when they get to be my age. Or, ... not.
‘Tipping Point’ An installation by Andrew Schoultz in downtown Santa Monica.
Tipping point
Did you know that the permanent ice frosted ground is melting? That's the permafrost in the upper latitudes of the world. It's melting and releasing green house gases that were captured there hundreds of thousands of years ago.