#thegunsofaugust

Gavrilo Princip, photo Wikipedia

On June 28 1914, a Bosnian Serb by the name of Gavrilo Princip shot the heir to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Archduke Franz Ferdinand in front of Schiller's Delicatessen, on a street in Sarajevo. When asked the question “How did the First World War begin?” many will point to this incident. But why?

How did the assassination of the Archduke bring the great powers to general European warfare a little over a month later? What was the threat to Austria-Hungary that brought the German Empire into the conflict? Why did Russia, France and Britain, three nations that were could not reasonably be considered under threat by the Austro-Hungarian Empire, end up enthusiastically committing to war?

The explanation is a very long and very detailed story and if you are interested I would recommend a book by Christopher Clark, The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914. It provides a great narrative regarding the state of Europe leading up to the war and goes into detail covering the events from the assassination of Ferdinand to the first declaration of war. However, if reading books isn’t your thing, I will review and summarize some of these same events for you now. Be warned, even in summary it’s still a long story!

As mentioned in previous posts, the great nations of Europe had come together and rebalanced their size and powers during the Congress of Vienna in 1815. The goal was to prevent a single nation from acquiring enough strength in order to throw the continent into chaos as France had done during the Napoleonic Wars. By and large, the peace and the Industrial Revolution that followed brought wealth and prosperity to Europe, but did not end the potential for regional conflict between nations.

The 1870 Franco-Prussian War resulted in the annexation of French territory to the newly proclaimed German Empire and created an ongoing point of embarrassment and frustration for the government and citizens of France. As the power, and population, of the German Empire continued to grow, France worked to create and reinforce alliances with other nations to attempt to keep the neighbor on their eastern border in check. The Dual Alliance of 1894 between France and Russia and the Entente Cordial of 1904 between France and Britain served this purpose.

Field Marshal Alfred von Schlieffen, photo Wikipedia

France was not the only nation with an interlocking network of allies however. The German Empire had long standing alliances established with the Ottoman Empire as well as the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The Germans were feeling the pressure of Einkreisung (encirclement) and the potential adversaries on both its borders, France on the west and Russia on its east. With France and Russia as allies the German Empire could be facing a dual front war should conflict breakout with either of its neighbors. Chief of the Imperial German Army Staff, Field Marshal Alfred von Schlieffen developed a plan to defeat its enemies and preserve the German state.

The Schlieffen Plan

It was assumed that, in the event of war, it would take Russia much longer to mobilize their forces than it would take France. Schlieffen’s plan therefore was to attack France quickly, using a huge maneuver of forces west through the neutral countries of Belgium and Luxembourg, while leaving a token force on the eastern border. The plan required a detailed timetable from the moment German forces were mobilized, taking into account all possible French responses. The invasion of France from the north with a massive force, the capture of Paris, the surrounding of French armies, and a complete defeat of France, all accomplished within six weeks. German forces could then turn their full attention to their eastern border and engage the Russian threat. The timing of this plan was critical. Any delay could result in a disaster for the German Empire. Russian troops invading from the east could be lunching in Berlin and throwing cabbage at the Kaiser if French forces were not defeated quickly enough! Schlieffen worked and reworked his plan countless times in the attempt to plan for every contingency. Assuring that adequate forces would be committed in order to guarantee the quick knock-out blow to France was foremost in his mind. Schlieffen’s last words before his death in 1913 were said to be “Remember, keep the right wing strong”, in reference to the size of the German forces he thought critical to move into France from the north.

The Balkans had long been a powder keg which caused repeated difficulties for the great powers of Europe. By the early 20th century the Ottoman Empire had lost significant power and territory in this region. The Austro-Hungarian Empire, looking to increase their sphere of influence in the Balkans, announced the annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina in October 1908. This generated outrage in Serbia, which was looking to expand their borders and create a “Greater Serbia” that encompassed a larger portion of the Balkan Peninsula. Serbia mobilized its army and demanded that the annexation be reversed. What was unknown to Serbia was that their Russian pan-Slavic ally had already made a secret agreement with Austria-Hungary regarding the annexation. The German Empire, allied to Austria-Hungary, knew the details of this secret agreement and pressured the Russian government to force Serbia to stand down lest the details of this secret agreement be made public. The pressure worked and on March 31 Serbia formally accepted the annexation. The Austro-Hungarian Empire learned the effectiveness of standing up to Serbia while Russia seethed at its inability to back up its ally.

The Balkan Wars of 1912 and 1913 essentially pushed the Ottoman Empire out of Europe for good. Only the nation of Turkey would survive as a vestigial European remnant of the once great Ottoman dynasty. The great powers of Europe were troubled by the Balkan situation, each for their own compelling reasons. Russia continued to support Serbia as an ally but also worked against the weakened Ottoman Empire in the desire to control the Dardanelles and access from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. The Austro-Hungarian Empire looked to support the Ottomans as a counterweight to the continued threat of Serbian desire to expand their territory. Germany and France supported their allies Austria-Hungary and Russia respectively, but also both sought to increase their influence in the Middle East. Britain, despite being allied with France and Russia by this point, was playing all sides against each other as it did not want increased Russian control of the Dardanelles and wanted to keep France away from British control of Middle Eastern territory. Another diplomatic conflict arose between Austria-Hungary and Serbia arose in 1913 over Albania. The Austro-Hungarian Empire issued an ultimatum to Serbia, and once again Serbia backed down. By 1914 the situation was ready to boil over.

The June 28 assassination of the Austro-Hungarian Archduke triggered a new crisis. It was quickly determined by the Austro-Hungarian government that the assassin was a Serbian nationalist who most likely acted with direct assistance from the Serbian state. Discussions within Austria-Hungary would drag on for weeks. However, Austria-Hungary saw the murder of the heir to the throne as a direct challenge to their authority in the region. Finally, on July 23, having been assured of support from the German Empire (the so called Blank Check) and with a desire to deal with Serbia once and for all, the Austro-Hungarian government took action. A new ultimatum was issued to Serbia. This ultimatum listed 10 points, impossible for any sovereign government to fully accept, and had a deadline of 48 hours. The ultimatum did not list any specific action that Austria-Hungary, or its allies, would take if it was ignored or rejected.

Meanwhile, France and Russia had already agreed to be in full alignment. Russia would support Serbia against any aggression from Austria-Hungary and France would support Russia against any aggression from the German Empire. Britain, watching the events unfold from the safety of their island, generally saw no reason to get involved, beyond an offer to mediate the dispute, and did not expect to take part if war did break out on the continent.

Historians still debate today to the extent to which Serbia was willing to compromise in their reply to the ultimatum, but by July 24 it was clear that their reply was unsatisfactory to the Austro-Hungarians. Austria-Hungary broke off diplomatic relations and Serbia mobilized their forces expecting war. The fuse, lit by the June 28 spark, would now burn very quickly.

The same day that Serbia mobilized their military both France and Russia began preparations for mobilization. On July 25 Austro-Hungarian Emperor Franz Joseph ordered his troops to mobilize and prepare for action against Serbia.

The German military staff could foresee what was coming and supported the possibility of war against Russia. Russian military power was growing and if it was to be war against Russia and France there was no better time than now. The German Kaiser Wilhelm II was having second thoughts however. On July 26, reading the Serbian reply to the ultimatum, Kaiser Wilhelm believed that Serbia had capitulated and the need for war was past. German diplomats were more concerned with making it appear that Russia would be the instigator of a general European war as well as keeping Britain neutral and out of the conflict to come. On July 27, with the threat of war growing by the hour, Chief of the German General Staff Helmuth von Moltke ordered the military attaché in Brussels to ask for permission for German troops to cross though Belgian territory, following the detailed Schlieffen plan and attack France.

On July 28 Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia and began to shell Belgrade. The next day the Kaiser sent a telegram to his cousin, Tsar Nicholas of Russia, asking about the possibility of avoiding general war. The Kaiser’s military staff, knowing that Russia was preparing for war, were trying to find a justification to mobilize their troops early. But the German diplomats were now the ones getting cold feet and on July 29 attempted to coax Britain to agree upon their neutrality in the event of war. Failing in being able to get a commitment from Britain one way or the other, and despite having promised Austria-Hungary their full support, German diplomats were now pushing for Austria-Hungary to accept the Serbian reply to their ultimatum and avoid an escalation to general war.

On July 30, after first ordering a partial mobilization and finding it totally impractical, Tsar Nicholas ordered the full mobilization of Russian troops. The act of mobilization was generally considered an act of war. With their neighbors on the east moving, the Germans no choice but to act.

The Schlieffen Plan was clear. If the German Empire was to survive it was critical to follow the specific timetable laid out for mobilization: troop assembly, deployment of equipment, distribution of forces, invasion of Belgium and Luxembourg, attacking France and their defeat in six weeks, then the attack upon Russia, everything was determined and defined by precise calculation right down to the number of military train carriages that would need to pass over any given bridge per hour. Any variance to the plan could mean the destruction of Germany. On July 31, while demanding that Russia stop its mobilization, the German Empire begin to mobilize its own forces.

Chief of German General Staff Helmuth von Moltke, photo Wikipedia

On August 1 Kaiser Wilhelm II nearly caused General von Moltke to suffer a nervous breakdown. A British offer to guarantee the neutrality of France, an offer made without any actual authority from France, was immediately accepted by the Kaiser. Wilhelm then sent a telegram accepting the offer to his cousin, Britain’s King George V, who had no idea what offer Wilhelm was referring to. The erratic Kaiser then ordered that German forces shift their entire mobilization from west to east, ignoring the Schlieffen Plan entirely. Von Moltke told the Kaiser that it was impossible. 

Your Majesty, it cannot be done. The deployment of millions cannot be improvised. If Your Majesty insists on leading the whole army to the east it will not be an army ready for battle but a disorganized mob of armed men with no arrangements for supply. Those arrangements took a whole year of intricate labor to complete and once settled, it cannot be altered.

The mechanism had been conceived, fully assembled, had been put in place, and now had been activated. Unlike the other major powers of Europe, once mobilization was complete there was no point of pause. Following mobilization there were no other plans for the German military other than the invasion of Belgium and the attack on France. When the Tsar refused to stop their mobilization the German Empire declared war on Russia.

Now the dominoes would fall rapidly. On August 2 France began to mobilize their troops. On that same day Germany demanded Belgium give free passage to German troops on the way to France. Belgian King Albert I refused. On August 3 Germany declared war on France. The next day German troops crossed the border into Belgium. It was a larger force than was deployed at any given moment by the Romans throughout their entire Empire, from the British Isles, to Northern Africa to the Middle East. Nearly one million German soldiers were marching towards France.

Up to this point it was still an open question as to what Britain would do. Britain had an alliance with France and was a signatory to the 1839 Treaty of London that guarantied Belgium neutrality. However, Britain had sat out European wars in the past and some believed that the British had much more in common with Germans than they did with the French or the Belgians. Kaiser Wilhelm II was a grandson of the British Queen Victoria, like his cousin and British King George V, and was at her bedside when she died in 1901. Wilhelm also rode beside George during the London funeral procession of King Edward VII just four years earlier.

Additionally, Britain had serious issues within their own borders. The question of Irish Home Rule had come to a head in early 1914. Unionist supporters in Ulster had been importing weapons from Germany in order to fight off the possibility of Dublin taking control. of the territory When the British government threatened to send in military force in order to maintain control in Ulster numerous high ranking officers stated that they would resign rather than fight those who wished to remain under London authority.

Would Britain stay out of the coming war? The French in particular, were despondent under the belief that they would not be assisted in their coming fight with Germany.

Three facts tipped the balance in favor of Britain going to war. The first was the consideration following the war if Britain did not come to France’s aid. Where would Britain be if France was defeated and Britain was left with no friends on the continent? On the other hand, where would Britain be if France was victorious without British help? What then use would there be for Britain? 

Secondly, Britain could not allow the major ports along the English Channel fall under the control of a hostile power, especially those ports in neutral Belgium.

The third fact was that the British Liberal Cabinet was not strong enough to maintain power if a decision was made not to join the war. Cabinet members would resign in protest, the government would fall and the Conservatives would take over the government and join the war anyway. Of course, none of this was discussed publicly and another reason entirely was given for Britain to join the war: Belgian neutrality.

On August 4 Britain delivered an ultimatum of its own to the German Empire: Respect the Treaty of London, respect Belgian sovereignty, cease all hostilities. The ultimatum was delivered by the British Ambassador in Berlin. The reaction by German Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg was reported by the British Ambassador as follows:

I then said that I should like to go and see the Chancellor, as it might be, perhaps, the last time I should have an opportunity of seeing him. He begged me to do so. I found the Chancellor very agitated. His Excellency at once began a harangue, which lasted for about twenty minutes. He said that the steps taken by His Majesty's Government was terrible to a degree; just for a word -- "neutrality," a word which in war time had so often been disregarded -- just for a scrap of paper Great Britain was going to make war on a kindred nation who desired nothing better than to be friends with her. All his efforts in that direction had been rendered useless by this last terrible step, and the policy to which, as I knew, he had devoted himself since his accession to office had tumbled down like a house of cards. What we had done was unthinkable; it was like striking a man from behind while he was fighting for his life against two assailants. He held Great Britain responsible for all the terrible events that might happen. I protested strongly against that statement, and said that, in the same way as he and Herr von Jagow wished me to understand that for strategical reasons it was a matter of life and death to Germany to advance through Belgium and violate the latter's neutrality, so I would wish him to understand that it was, so to speak, a matter of "life and death" for the honor of Great Britain that she should keep her solemn engagement to do her utmost to defend Belgium's neutrality if attacked. That solemn compact simply had to be kept, or what confidence could any one have in engagements given by Great Britain in the future? The Chancellor said, "But at what price will that compact have been kept? Has the British Government thought of that?" I hinted; to his Excellency as plainly as I could that fear of consequences could hardly be regarded as an excuse for breaking solemn engagements, but his Excellency was so excited, so evidently overcome by the news of our action, and so little disposed to hear reason that I refrained from adding fuel to the flame by further argument.

The Germans were shocked that the British were choosing to join the war. With the British Empire engaged, an entirely new and unplanned dimension would now have to be considered by the German military. At midnight, on August 4 1914, Britain declared war on the German Empire.

In the span of 8 days, six countries had gone from peace to war. None of them expected what was to follow.

President John F. Kennedy and Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara 1962, photo Wikipedia

Postscript: Barbara Tuchman’s The Guns of August is another fantastic account of the lead up to the Great War. Tuchman argues that mistakes and miscalculations lead to the war. No one wanted a general European war, yet they all got one. Nearly 50 years after the start of the Great War, President John F. Kennedy told his brother Bobby during the Cuban Missile Crisis “I am not going to follow a course which will allow anyone to write a comparable book about this time called the “Missiles of October.” Kennedy wanted to send a copy of Tuchman’s book to every office of the US Navy and it was required reading among his Presidential aides. While subsequent research has found that some actually did seek war in 1914, specifically the German military staff who saw Russia as a threat to be dealt with sooner than later, Tuchman’s book remains an outstanding document regarding the start of the First World War. I highly recommend it.

Next up - Prologue Part 6: First battles, defeat and retreat