Rapid urbanization and morphological transformations in Cagayan de Oro City have substantially intensified the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) effect. This research quantifies the spatiotemporal evolution of the city’s thermal environment from 2016 to 2024 using an empirical, multi-tiered geospatial framework. Sentinel-2A multispectral data mapped six land cover classes, validated by a simple random sampling of 300 independent points, while Landsat 8 TIRS data retrieved kinetic Land Surface Temperature (LST) via single-channel emissivity modeling. Spatial statistics expose a profound terrestrial transition, primarily driven by a 27.15% contraction of forest canopy alongside a 441.40% surge in Bare Ground and a 5.20% expansion of Built-up areas. This physical restructuring catalyzed a 2.26°C escalation in the mean basin LST. Bivariate analyses confirmed the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) exerts a stronger suppressive influence on LST variance (R2= 0.4174) than the warming effect of the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (R2= 0.3190). Translating radiometry into ecological vulnerability, the Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI) revealed an aggressive geographic diffusion of thermal stress. Furthermore, Contribution Index (CI) assessments determined Forests are the sole remaining thermal sink, with the overall Landscape Effect Index (LI) degrading to 0.981, signaling an inverted thermal regime. Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot analysis anchored these patterns, demonstrating 67.5% of administrative units have coalesced into 99% Confidence Hot Spots. Mitigating this self-reinforcing SUHI effect demands a shift toward spatial de-clustering, strict zone to protect cold spots, and extensive green infrastructure deployment.
