Exposure is just as important in the nomination and voting process as the quality of the movies themselves. I speak from experience, as someone whose job it was to fill out Emmy and Oscar ballots for someone during the 2011 awards season. I hadn’t seen all the movies and shows up for nomination, and in some categories I voted based on the past work of those nominated that I’d seen most of and enjoyed. Whether their films deserve awards or not, I imagine it’s easy for voters to check off boxes for Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence simply because these are people who’ve had ample opportunity to star in a variety of things that show their talent as actors. Even if you’re not thinking of Joy while voting, perhaps you’re remembering that you enjoyed American Hustle, Silver Lining Playbook, or The Hunger Games or X-Men franchises. If Leonardo DiCaprio wins an Oscar this year for The Revenant I’ll go to my grave swearing it’s actually for Catch Me If You Can or The Wolf of Wallstreet.
Jennifer Lawrence has made three movies a year since 2011. Michael B. Jordan made one movie in 2014. Despite being active in the business for longer than Lawrence, 2015 is the first time he’s released more than one film in a single year. This means she’s had triple the chance for interviews, soundbites, fake celebrity friendships, and quirky red carpet stumbles to stick in the public’s mind. Jordan’s not been offered the chance to make the same impact.