#puppet state

Following the US military operation in Venezuela on 3 January 2026, during which President Nicolás Maduro was captured, legal experts and international actors accuse the Trump administration of violating several fundamental international and national laws.

Violations of international law

Experts and international organisations cite the following points in particular:

UN Charter (Art. 2(4)): The prohibition of the use of force is considered to have been violated, as the attack on Venezuela's territorial integrity and political independence took place without the consent of the UN Security Council, without a basis for self-defence and without the consent of the host country.

International maritime law: Even before the attack, the blockade of Venezuelan oil exports and the sinking of suspicious ships without warning were considered violations of maritime law.

Principle of sovereignty: Trump's announcement that the US would ‘govern’ Venezuela for the time being is considered a flagrant breach of state sovereignty.

Classification under international law: Critics, including former prosecutors at the International Criminal Court (ICC), describe the campaign as a ‘systematic attack against civilians in peacetime’.

Violations of US national law

Within the US, criticism focuses on the constitutional division of powers:

War Powers Act: Critics in Congress argue that Trump did not obtain parliamentary approval for the use of military force against a sovereign state.

Article I of the Constitution: This is seen as a violation of Congress's power to declare war. Instead, the government classifies the operation as a ‘law enforcement measure’ against ‘narco-terrorist’ organisations in order to circumvent the need for a declaration of war.

Senate refusal to approve: Although the Senate rejected a bill that would have explicitly bound Trump to congressional approval, MPs consider the unilateral escalation without prior briefing obligations to be illegal.

That's what the red dragon was waiting for.

According to experts, the Trump administration's actions in Venezuela on 3 January 2026 will have far-reaching consequences for China's geopolitical strategy towards Taiwan. The options available to Beijing can be divided into three key areas:

1. Justification through precedents

China could use the US action as a legal and moral template to legitimise its own coercive measures against Taiwan:

Security arguments: Since the US has declared the military action to be a protective measure against ‘narco-terrorism,’ China could cite similar ‘security reasons’ or ‘anti-terrorism measures’ to justify blockades or strikes against Taiwan.

Weakening of international law: Legal experts warn that by violating the UN Charter's prohibition on the use of force, the US is losing its credibility to criticise China internationally for similar actions in the Taiwan Strait.

Narrative of ‘quarantine’: Beijing could portray a naval blockade of Taiwan in the future as a ‘domestic law enforcement measure’ (similar to the US logic in Venezuela) in order to avoid the status of an international war.

2. Strategic windows of opportunity and tactics

The commitment of US resources in the Caribbean region opens up operational advantages for China:

Withdrawal of military capabilities: Protracted US operations to control Venezuela could weaken the readiness and presence of the US Navy in the Indo-Pacific.

Acceleration of the timetable: Observers fear that China will use the global instability triggered by Venezuela to bring forward its own timetable for ‘reunification’ (by 2027), as the US is tied up on another front.

Testing of alliances: China can observe how US allies react to unilateral military force.

If international resistance to Trump in Venezuela remains weak, this could encourage Beijing to take bolder action against Taiwan.

3. Diplomatic and economic counter-offensives

Diplomatic isolation of the US: China is already using the action to portray the US as a ‘hegemon’ and ‘bully’ that disregards international law. This is intended to make it more difficult for Washington to form an international coalition to protect Taiwan.

Securing energy resources: As China is a major buyer of Venezuelan oil, the interruption of these supplies by the US could prompt Beijing to expand its maritime presence more aggressively to protect its own trade routes – including in areas such as the South China Sea.

In summary, the operation in Venezuela offers China a ‘propaganda opportunity’ and a strategic precedent that significantly lowers the threshold for military action in the Taiwan Strait.

Today is the day Russia legitimizes the annexation of the Crimea. Ethnic Ukrainians and Tartars will no doubt be told they are welcome and ‘included’ in the new Crimea – despite the fact they will boycott the Russian led referendum. Vladimir Putin, ignoring protests at home, will happily tout he is merely honouring a request from fellow Russians in the Ukraine to protect them and secure their…

To be precise, this is not the flag of Manchuria. It is the flag of Manchukuo, which was a Japanese puppet state in Manchuria. We like this flag because it looks like a flag within a flag.