If anyone is curious and doesn’t already know the formula:

((Wins X 3) + Participation Points) X Event multiplier = points for the day

I went 6-3 at GP Pittsburgh 2500 people means highest participation points (9) Grand Prix multiplier is 8 so:

((6X3)+9) X 8 (18+9) X 8 27 X 8 = 216

Now I just need to do that 6 more times by next May to get a first round bye

Magic: the Gathering - Planeswalker Points

Readers may note that I've dropped the PWP score card into the margin of my Tumblr MTG Realm page.  I've done this as a reminder to myself to get out of my basement lair to my local Friday Night Magic event.  Planeswalker Points has been given a minor facelift by Wizards just recently and you can read about it here. 

(This is still a bit unfocused, but I'm putting it out there ATM.)

So, in a coversation with @SethBurn on twitter, I have come to crystallize a few troubling thoughts about what the organized play program for Magic: the Gathering is 'rewarding'. Let's start with the basis.

The Rewards

There are three major types of tournaments that Wizards runs, Pro Tour Qualifiers (PTQs), Pro Tours (PTs), and Grand Prix (GPs). There are also two 'regular player' rewards systems, Planeswalker Points (PWPs) and Pro Points (PPs). I could type out all the details, but Wizards has them on their site, more or less, except for how PWPs and PPs work in a clear manner.

PTQs tend to cost $20-30, give a box of product to each person in the top 8, and last 6-10 rounds before that cut to top 8. The winner gets an invite and airfare tothat season's Pro Tour.

GPs: GPs cost $40 to play in, and pay out as such: http://www.wizards.com/Magic/TCG/Events.aspx?x=grandprix/points

The top 4 (if they are not already qualified) will get an invite and airfare to that season's Pro Tour. They're also 2 day events that tend to last 15 rounds plus the top 8 cut.

PTs: http://www.wizards.com/Magic/TCG/Events.aspx?x=protour/default/prizes

Additionally, the top 25 from each PT are invited to the next PT.

Now, PWPs are awarded based on attendance and wins (3 points a win, and log_2(players)-2 for attending), all multiplied by a 'level' multiplier. PTQs are 3x, GPs are 8x, PTs don't give real PWPs for season reasons. The relevant numbers are 400 PWPs for 1 bye at GPs, 750 for 2, and 1500 for 3. 

PPs are awarded for good performances at GPs, and at the PT. There are 3 levels of rewards for PPs: Silver, Gold, and Platinum. http://www.wizards.com/Magic/TCG/Events.aspx?x=protour/playersclub/guidelines

(Silver basically yields no real rewards, as the effort taken to get Silver will almost certainly get you byes at GPs.)

So with all that laid out, let's look at attendance (I don't have hard numbers yet on these, I haven't been able to get them.)

PTQs: 40-300+ . 

GPs: 600-2000+

PTs: 350 (The PT's size is set by all the invite tournaments and Wizards' whims, yielding a very regular number.)

So, a very basic quick glance makes it clear that, if there are no rewards systems in play whatsoever, hitting a PTQ gives you a better chance of going to the Pro Tour than a GP does: there's only 4x more invites at a GP, and tend to be 4-10x the players. 

But it gets worse for you, because Gold and Platinum level pros get paid to go to GPs. Remember, they already have invites. Wizards is paying them, from an EV point of view, to reduce the rewards they have to pay out at the tournament itself, since every Top 4 position they take is another ticket and invite they don't have to give. (I don't think this is cynical, BTW, because it's obvious that paying them all to show up costs more than the tickets they gobble up. The reason they're there is to show Magic's big names and faces. But this is the EV effect.)

But wait, Planeswalker Points will matter, right? Well. GPs are meant for people who are local, so let's say you're in Ohio. There are two GPs within striking distance. Let's say you did well in one, poorly in the other. Your PWP yield is going to be, from that, 500. A couple PTQs and other events, and you might have the 750 for two whole byes. For 1-2 15 round tournaments every 4 months, at which the competition is going to be harder than most anything else Wizards offers. So they're a little help, but all those Pros have 3 byes, and you'd still do better going to PTQs unless the GPs were close. But if you go consistently for an entire season, you are, in fact, able to get those elusive 3 byes... well, let's figure out how much you wasted first.

To run some numbers, a 150 person PTQ, you pay $25 to get in, 8 boxes to T8 let's value the plane ticket + invite at 1000, that's still roughly $-13EV assuming you're at even odds. A 1800 person GP with 0 byes, you pay $40 to get in, add up all that money and make the same assumptions... that's $-23EV. Wow. So wizards is paying you, essentially, $10 more dollars to go to a PTQ than a GP. (And you're at much lower odds to cash a GP, because the competition is much, much tougher.)

So you go to, say, 4 GPs and a PTQ, at those EVs... and you're -100 EV. Great, but now you have 3 byes, right? Well... three byes are pretty awesome. I may be wrong on this, but from what I can roughly figure, a bye doubles your 'win' half. So the -23 EV goes up by $17 for each bye you have. At this 1800 person event. So hey, assuming GPs don't go above 1800 people, and you have 3 byes, going to a GP has a whole.. 28 EV! So you can earn all that EV money back, assuming travel is free, in another season!

... assuming travel is free. Hrm. Look at this GP schedule and tell me how much it would cost someone to go to 4 GPs a season (A season being roughly 4 months): http://www.wizards.com/Magic/TCG/Events.aspx?x=grandprix/welcome

Assuming you can get the cheapest of flights, you're looking at easily $250 a GP just to do this travel. But what about travelling to PTQs? Most PTQ travel involves 3-5 hour car rides at most, split between people, meaning the travel costs are in the $20-40 range per. So the actual EV calculation for GPs that are out of driving distance is $-220 or so (rounding), if you have all 3 byes, and PTQs become $-50 or so for driving, $-265 for flying, and GPs with no byes that are flown to being the worst. 

So the EV order is GP with 3 byes within driving distance > PTQs within driving distance > GPs flown to with 3 byes > PTQs flown to with 0 byes > GPs driven to with 0 byes > GPs flown to with 0 byes.

And how many people have 3 byes? About 100, 150, and they have to play a lot to get them (and keep them). And this is assuming there's not, say, 2000 people GPs (which there are). 

You see the problem, don't you? GPs, the large 'gala' tournaments that everyone can enter, are essentially giant swaths of dead money lining up to get very little  for their two days of effort, combined with a few grinders who are managing to maintain their 3 byes on PWPs. PTQs, the small 'run by random stores' tournaments that have a lower skill level of player, actually pay out better for everyone else, and they're only one day to boot!

But maybe this is what Wizards wants... right?

Wizards' Stated Goals

Wizards, conveniently, has stated several goals for their Pro Play system! 

http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/feature/174c

When they came out with this version of Organized Play, this was the post accompanying it. I'm ignoring the 'world tournament' for the moment, because it doesn't much play into this system, and I'm instead going to focus on the goals that are related to the PTQ/GP/PT system.

We want to make sure Premier Play represents the highest level of competition for Magic

Premier Play has to be a source of aspiration for millions of Magic players around the world

Put an end to the "grind"

So they want Premier Play to represent the highest level of competition for Magic. Is that what they are rewarding?

GPs invite in pros, but if they aren't paying you to be there, your EV is miserable unless you have byes, and to get those byes you have to fly, socking your EV in the face. So the result is that pros will show up, and people who don't know better will show up, but there is actually no reason, tournament-wise, to travel to go there, unless you are grinding Pro Points/3 byes. 

Premier Play has to be a source of aspiration? GPs where you have no legitimate shot of getting an invite, instead a bunch of meaningless PWPs that only matter if you're a grinder, and PPs that only matter if you're a grinder? That doesn't actually sound like a source of aspiration: it sounds like a recipe for being a punching bag for pros and a cash sink for Wizards. PTQs are the only place an 'aspiring' pro can go and have a chance.

Putting an end to the grind? Going to a couple GPs a season only gets you 2 byes at best. To get 3 byes, the number at which GPs aren't completely miserable, requires a hell of a grind and travel. The pros? To stay on the train they have to grind too. Instead of grinding for aspiration, people now have to grind just to stay where they are, lest the clawing hands of randomization pull them out of pro play forever. 

So I've accumulated enough points to get me a 1 Round Bye at GPs next season. Yay! Slogging through the early rounds is seriously crappy.