#olenik

Joey

July 15th, 2019

Another event on ESPN, another makeshift card! These ESPN cards seem to have a bit of a theme or rhythm to them now; give folks a name main event, give them a main card featuring fighters they've had in fights they may/may not care about and then just fill in the rest of the prelim slate. That's no different here with the UFC's return to San Antonio where there's a "name" (sorta) main event, a main card filled with names like Ben Rothwell, Andrei Arlovski, Greg Hardy, James Vick, Daniel Hooker, Alexander Hernandez and Walt Harris and the prelims are just kinda there with intriguing fights featuring people you've probably never heard of. The headliner for this ESPN gimmick is Rafael Dos Anjos vs Leon Edwards; a solid welterweight fight on paper well worthy of the main event spot even if the "winner" is somewhat inconsequential to the title picture. It's as close as we're going to get in theory to an all doughy guy bonanza so settle in, pour yourself a drink and get after it!

Fights: 13

Debuts: Gabriel Silva, Domingo Pilarte

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 1 (Liz Carmouche OUT, Jennifer Maia IN vs Roxanne Modafferi)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 13 (Rafael Dos Anjos, Leon Edwards, Greg Hardy, Aleksei Oleinik, James Vick, Dan Hooker, Andrei Arlovski, Ben Rothwell, Alex Caceres, Raquel Pennington, Sam Alvey, Roxanne Modafferi, Ray Borg)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: 6 (Andrei Arlovski, Ben Rothwell, James Vick, Rocky Pennington, Ray Borg, Sam Alvey)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 3 (Leon Edwards, Walt Harris, Irene Aldana)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2017 (in the UFC): 33-20 (2)

Leon Edwards- 5-0 Rafael Dos Anjos- 4-2 Walt Harris- 4-2-1 Aleksei Olenik- 4-2 James Vick- 4-2 Dan Hooker- 4-1 Greg Hardy- 1-1 Juan Adams- 1-1 Alexander Hernandez- 2-1 Francisco Trinaldo- 2-2 Andrei Arlovski- 2-5-1 Ben Rothwell- 0-1

Fights By Weight Class (yearly number here):

Bantamweight- 3 (39) Heavyweight- 3 (21) Lightweight- 2 (44) Welterweight- 1 (39) Light Heavyweight- 1 (29) Featherweight-  1 (34) Women’s Bantamweight- 1 (13) Women’s Flyweight- 1 (19)

Middleweight- (23) Women’s Strawweight- (19) Flyweight- (8) Women’s Featherweight- (6)

2019 Number Tracker

Debuting Fighters (20-41)- Domingo Pilarte, Gabriel Silva

Short Notice Fighters (19-27)- Jennifer Maia

Second Fight (38-16)- Mario Bautista, Jin Soo Son, Klidson Abreu, Felipe Corrales

Cage Corrosion (Fighters who have not fought within a year of the date of the fight) (14-27)-

Undefeated Fighters (25-28)-  Gabriel Silva

Fighters with at least four fights in the UFC with 0 wins over competition still in the organization (9-8)-

Weight Class Jumpers (Fighters competing outside of the weight class of their last fight even if they’re returning BACK to their “normal weight class”) (19-17)- Felipe Corrales

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- A lot of folks took offense to Dana White not rushing to grant a #1 contender in the WW division but let's play this out real quick:

Jorge Masvidal has two back to back highlight reel KOs

Tyron Woodley is still around and has a justifiable claim to being the #1 contender

If Colby Covington beats Robbie Lawler, he'll have wins over RDA, Lawler, Bryan Barberena, Demian Maia and Stun Gun Kim in the past three years

If Robbie Lawler beats Colby Covington, he's the super popular former champ who beat Donald Cerrone and then Colby Covington

If Anthony Pettis beats Nate Diaz then he's got wins over two of the more recognizable faces in the UFC on back to back fights

Nate Diaz may have been a simple “Yes” away from a title fight in December of 2017 so let’s see what happens if he beats Pettis

Guys like Elizeu Zaleski, Vicente Luque and Santiago Ponzinibbio are racking up finishes and wins at a crazy rate

Then you throw in these two guys and you can see why a clogged picture with an inactive champion is not ideal at all. Leon Edwards took a big step up from beating the so-so guys on the European scene to racking up wins over the likes of Bryan Barberena, Donald Cerrone and Gunnar Nelson. He's a tremendous welterweight who has a not so thrilling style at a time where the UFC kind of sort of has a very hit or miss level of interest. It would be tough to deny a guy on this kind of winning streak (finishes or otherwise) that he isn't a top contender. With a win by RDA, It's totally fair to point out that RDA will have snapped Leon Edwards' winning streak after stopping Kevin Lee with wins over Robbie Lawler and Neil Magny backing that up. RDA was dominated by Kamaru Usman so he's probably not in the title picture with a win but his value only goes up if he develops into that title shot gatekeeper/contender. The UFC's welterweight division is very cluttered and Usman being out has only made it even more cluttered.

2- Does the makeshift-y nature of this fight allow put RDA in the driver's seat? Rafael Dos Anjos has been frequently tasked to become a short notice main eventer a la Donald Cerrone as evidenced as recently as 2017 where he fought in June, September and then December. Guy keeps himself busy and if you remove the 15 lb weight cut, he's more inclined to take quicker turnaround fights. Leon Edwards tends to be the kind of guy who fights on a bit more of a laid back fighter sched; often popping up whenever the UFC needs a fight in Europe. It's also worth remembering that RDA is pretty much used to these grueling violent in tight fights (which Edwards is going to chase) and seems to always be surprisingly well conditioned despite the pacing. Edwards will probably be the hardest hitting WW that RDA has faced since Robbie Lawler but even Lawler was compromised by a torn ACL but he's also a space and pace guy who either needs to be far away or in REAL tight to operate. This fight is as close as the numbers would suggest it to be.

3- He had zero problems dealing with Donald Cerrone in Singapore so it's probably not a big deal BUT it is worth pointing out just for sniggles that Edwards' two UFC losses have come outside of Europe. Consider this one a Pondering padder if anything.

4- It wasn't his first loss ever BUT Alexander Hernandez is coming off of his first stoppage loss at the hands of Donald Cerrone. The UFC apparently had designs on him coming back sooner but he took a bit more time off. Trinaldo is not much of a one shot finisher but he's really strong, is abnormally good despite his age and if he senses a fighter wilting, he tends to pour on the pressure. Trinaldo's sort of settled into the bottom half of the top 15 in my estimation while Hernandez has top 10 upside on paper but has sort of looked overwhelmed at times vs Donald Cerrone and Olivier Aubin-Mercier. I'm not sure if he'll ever really reach that upside although I'm betting on upside still. Hernandez vs Francisco Trinaldo is an interesting fight between two guys who could really use a high profile win.

5- The UFC signed Walt Harris in 2013. He's officially in a co-main event in 2019. He was cut once, suspended for PEDs once, a no contest, a DQ loss, had two not fights vs Mark Godbeer, fought Werdum at 3 hours notice and now has finally elevated himself up to co-main event status. Hard work (and being around when nobody else is around) has paid off!

6- Seriously though when you consider that Walt Harris and Olenik are in the co-main and Rothwell and Arlovski are still kickin' around at this point, is it any surprise the UFC is TRYING to make a somebody out of the Adams vs Hardy winner?

We’ve got our frontrunner for 2020 FOTY, folks.

Of course. Of coooourse.