#blaydes

Joey

June 3rd

It's been hard going recently for some of these UFC events. Not since the Fox card headlined by Gaethje vs Poirier have we had an event that seemed to leave everyone feeling equally satisfied with what we got out of the five hour investment. Brazil had some good moments, some cringe and a truly depressing main event. Chile and Liverpool seemed to be going just fine before the main cards began and things got a little strange, both shows ending with main events that seemed destined to test the patience and willpower of their audience. This week from Utica, we were all THRILLED with what seemed like the worst six fight stretch in UFC history before the card eventually righted itself from "Worst show ever" to just being a bad show. All of this is to set the stage for an event that IF it's anything but great, will be a sign from the MMA Gods that this sport is going apocalyptic. This card is fantastic; a PPV event with two damn good title fights, CM Punk defending two titles of his own, two really intriguing HW fights, some damn good stuff in WMMA and good fights at weight classes below 145 lbs. The only bad fight on paper is a really shuntsy HW fight which of course can be forgiven. It's got a great mix of snazzy names, compelling fights, stories and worthy title challengers fighting for belts. You should be all in on this.

Fights: 13

Debuts: 1 (Megan Anderson)

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: (BObby Green OUT, Charles Oliveira IN vs Clay Guida/Allen Crowder OUT, Chris De La Rocha IN vs Rashad Coultier)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 16 (Holly Holm, Andrei Arlovski, Alistair Overeem, Robert Whittaker, Yoel Romero, Colby Covington, Rafael Dos Anjos, Curtis Blaydes, Claudia Gadelha, Carla Esparza, Ricardo Lamas, Gleison Tibau, Sergio Pettis, Joseph Benavidez, Clay Guida, Charles Oliveira)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: 2 (Rashad Evans, Chris De La Rocha)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 8  (Robert Whittaker, Tai Tuavasa, RDA, Colby Covington, Andrei Arlovski, Curtis Blaydes, Carla Esparza, Joseph Benavidez)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2016 (in the UFC): 19-13

Robert Whittaker- 4-0 Yoel Romero- 2-1 RDA- 3-2 Colby Covington- 5-0 Tai Tuavasa- 2-0 Andrei Arlovski- 2-5 Megan Anderson- 0-0 Holly Holm- 1-3 CM Punk- 0-1 Mike Jackson- 0-1

Divisional Breakdown: Heavyweight- 3 Welterweight- 2 Featherweight- 2 Lightweight- 1 Flyweight- 1 Light Heayweight- 1 Middleweight- 1 Women's featherweight- 1 Strawweight- 1

Too High Up- Chris De La Rocha vs Rashad Coultier

Don't be a goof and say CM Punk vs Mike Jackson because that's just smart business. As for this, do I have to explain? De La Rocha and Coultier are a combined 0-4 in the UFC. De La Rocha last fought before Conor McGregor was a UFC champion (twice) and Coultier has been KO'd both times. There's just no reason for this to be on FS1 outside of "they're big" which okay and all but they can be big on Fight Pass too, no?

Too Low- Joseph Benavidez vs Sergio Pettis

It's REALLY close between this fight, Oliveira/Guida and Blaydes/Overeem. Either way let's go with this really good fight at 125 lbs between a guy who has yet to fight the champion (Sergio Pettis) and the guy who has twice fought the champ but probably figures to be remain one of the best fighters in the division. Pettis is coming off a loss to Henry Cejduo while Benavidez rides into this fight on a long winning streak and an almost equally long layoff. This fight should be higher but what are ya gonna do?

Stat Monitor for 2018: Debuting Fighters (Current number: 14-17):  Megan Anderson

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 15-7): Charles Oliveira, Chris De La Rocha

Second Fight (Current number: 17-16): Mike Jackson, CM Punk, Dan Ige

Cage Corrosion (Current number: 10-17): CM Punk, Mike Jackson, Joe Benavidez

Undefeated Fighters (Current number: 20-13):

Keeping An Eye On But Not Really:

The UFC Win Check Test The records of fighters who have 4 or more UFC fights (or three full calendar years in the organization) but 0 wins against people still in the UFC: Rashad Evans

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- Does the first fight between Yoel Romero and Robert Whittaker even matter? Their first fight was a short notice booking (May 27th for July 8th) and so even if you grant that they had a month to prep, it was a short notice booking for two guys in their first ever title fights PLUS both Romero and Whittaker had only had one five round fight prior to this. Then the day of the event, they were randomly bumped up to the main event which is always added pressure. Making matters worse, Whittaker blew out his knee at the beginning of the first round and Romero admittedly said he was waiting for the right moment to kick Whittaker right in his fucked up leg.  There's been so many fluky circumstances that I'm not sure the first fight should hold any weight beyond an acknowledgment that it happened.

2- Given everything that went wrong for Whittaker since the title fight (bad knee injury, flesh eating virus that nearly went after his organs), what condition is he going to be in?

3- A lot has been said about Overeem-Blaydes being on the prelims and Holm-Anderson being on the main card. I don't think it's wrong to suggest Holly Holm is the biggest star on the main card outside of CM Punk nor is that a bad thing. Holm is somebody people want to see fight even if her fights can be really boring with the wrong kind of opponent. Her vs Megan Anderson at the very least is an important fight at 145 lbs which should give it the nod over Blaydes-Overeem since that fight really is JUST another fight at heavyweight. The key is to accept that this division is only going to grow if it's treated like a big deal and putting it on the main card helps it come off as a big deal. I can accept that the main card is weaker now without Overeem vs Blaydes which is the price we pay for trying to make sure the women's featherweight class gets a fighting shot.

4- There are two kinds of MMA fans; the ones who are dreading the idea of Colby Covington as a UFC champ and the ones who are openly anticipating it. I happily fall on the former but if you're on the latter? Well you're absolutely welcome to keep on readin'

5- What makes RDA vs Covington so interesting is that for all the BS about Covington's personality warts; his style has given RDA fits in the past while RDA is the best opponent Covington has faced ever. Guys like Gleison Tibau, Clay Guida, Khabib, Tony Ferguson etc etc have given him problems in the past with their relentless pressure and wrestling chops. If you're versatile (and I bet there's more to Covington's hands than what we've seen so far) with the ability to take RDA down then you'll more often than not have a shot. As for Colby Covington? His best win is an aging Demian Maia in a fight where he ate far too many hooks in the beginning of the fight and looked like a guy who had made a conscious decision to try and prove he could strike. After the first round, he settled down and went back to being a guy who was powerful on top, smothered with pressure and cooked dudes with cardio. There's so many things RDA can do that Maia can't do and at a level by which Covington has never seen from an opponent before. RDA at 170 lbs has been pretty damn perfect thus far and everything that worked at 155 lbs has carried upwards. Don't allow Covington's gimmick to convince you this fight isn't pretty damn great on paper.

6- Who is taking the bigger step up; Tai Tuavasa or Megan Anderson?

7- Let's focus on Tai Tuivasa currently. He's 2-0 in the UFC and his opponents combined records are 2-5 in the UFC (and Asker has ZERO wins vs people still in the organization). He hasn't been out of the first round, has shown some truly ugly aspects to his game which suggests this bandwagon is going to crash really hard at some point. At the same time, there's something crudely enjoyable about Tai Tuivasa's game. Maybe it's the Hunt-esque attitude he has or the fact he has some truly violent tools against the cage or just the fact that HW is in the midst of a bit of a renaissance (seriously!) and he's a pretty enjoyable part of that. He's getting his Arlovski test really early compared to other HW contemporaries. By the time guys like Ngannou and Tybura were tempted with the Arlovski chin, they had fought good quality HWs like Luiz Henrique (both guys) and Curtis Blaydes (Ngannou). This is a big step up for an entertaining young HW with some upside. PRoceed with caution, amigos.

8- Is Arlovski on his 4th career renaissance?

9- On a card loaded with proven established dudes, let's talk about Mirsad Bektic.  A forgotten face at 145 lbs, Mirsad's biggest weakness has been inactivity. He's suffered multiple knee injuries on his way up the FW rankings and then came back JUST in time to get beat by Darren Elkins in a very Elkins-y performance. In that fight Bektic abandoned any sort of success with his strikes to try and grapple with Elkins, a bad idea that gassed him out and ultimately led to him getting finished. He took another long break (of course) and re-emerged in Jan of this year to ice Godofredo Pepey. 145 lbs is the sort of division where even the bottom of the barrel is really good and where guys like Ortega, Holloway and Edgar are blasting through names one after another after.  Bektic is one of the rare guys who hasn't fought those three and he's really talented. On the other hand, Ricardo Lamas is probably the measuring stick for how good a dude can be at 145 lbs. A loss here doesn't ruin Bektic because Lamas is really good BUT a really impressive performance might start the clock on a Bektic title shot. Assuming he can avoid getting hurt again.

10-  We buying this Clay Guida career renaissance? Two straight wins since going back up to 155 lbs, both in dominant definitive fashion. Charles Oliveira is an interesting sort of test for him especially on short notice.

11- Don't act like CM Punk vs Mike Jackson doesn't have a perverse appeal to you. It's better to be honest about all of this than to try and lie. Nobody likes lying to yaself!

12- It's really weird to think the Gadelha vs Esparza winner could find their way into the title picture with one more win.

Five Can't Miss Fights

1- Robert Whittaker vs Yoel Romero

2- Curtis Blaydes vs Alistair Overeem

3-  Ricardo Lamas vs Mirsad Bektic

4- Tai Tuivasa vs Andrei Arlovski

Joey

February 5th, 2018

Oooof.

You poor dudes out there in Australia. The UFC's plan to finally put on another PPV in Australia felt like a solid enough one; bring your standard Fight Night-ish card with some bigger matchups and some title fights to make it all tie together. The original concept was easy enough to understand. You give Australia Robert Whittaker in a big title main event, find yourself a second title fight and roll with it. Unfortunately as is often the case with the UFC, the best laid plans tend to lead to things falling apart. The second fight (rumored to be Thug Rose vs Tecia Torres) fell apart and Robert Whittaker wound up contracting some kind of a super duper illness which took him out of the fight. In its place we're left with an Australian showcase card without THE big Aussie title fight to be the bow to tie everything together. Shit shit shit. This card isn't anywhere near as bad as some of the other cursed PPVs of 2016 but given what it could've been, it still hurts to see what we've got. Let's try to make the best of it, eh?

Fights: 12

Debuts: 1 (Israel Adesanya)

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 1 (Robert Whittaker OUT, Yoel Romero IN vs Luke Rockhold)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 6 (Luke Rockhold, Robert Whittaker, Mark Hunt, Jake Matthews, Jussier Formiga, Ross Pearson)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC:  3 (Ross Pearson, Mizuto Hirota, Damien Brown)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC:  7 (Jose Quinoines, Curtis Blaydes, Li Jingliang, Alexander Volkanovski, Jeremy Kennedy, Dong Hyun Kim, Ben Nguyen)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2016 (in the UFC): 17-10-2 Yoel Romero- 1-1 Luke Rockhold- 1-1 Mark Hunt- 2-1-1 Curtis Blaydes- 3-1-1 Tai Tuivasa- 1-0 Cyril Asker- 2-2 Jake Matthews- 2-2 Li Jingliang- 4-0 Tyson Pedro- 2-1 Saparbek Safarov- 0-1

Too High Up- Tai Tuivasa vs Cyril Asker

Come on, man. Come on now. Tai Tuivasa vs Cyril Asker is not a main card fight EVEN on free TV. Cyril Asker has never fought off of Fight Pass and NOW he's on PPV? NOW?! Come on. I get the argument here that Tai Tuivasa at 24 years old has all sort of upside and potential in the UFC's HW division that is starting to get itself a new collection of young big guys. This is a showcase fight----but you shouldn't make people pay 60 bucks for a friggin showcase fight especially when it's got a decent shot of falling apart on ya. Tuivasa vs a better opponent? Sure! Against Cyril Asker?! Nah, man.

Too Low- Jussier Formiga vs Ben Nguyen

Plenty of people will make the argument here for me but yeah, I get it. People don't like flyweights and they're not sold on the division and they hate the champ and etc etc etc. The point is that if you're being honest about divisional relevance and title fight qualifications, this fight is probably far closer to being something of note than any other fight on the main card besides the top two fights. Nguyen was swamped by Louis Smolka but outside of that performance he's been all action and basically all finish in the UFC. Jussier Formiga is a fine step up and an important challenger who tests whether or not somebody is truly ready for the next step up in their careers. Even if it makes some people get all butt hurt, you have to commit to giving the 125ers a chance on bigger shows.

Stat Monitor for 2018:

Debuting Fighters (Current number: 0-4):  Israel Adesanya

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 1-2): Yoel Romero

Second Fight (Current number: 2-6): Daichi Abe, Saparbek Safarov, Tai Tuivasa, Rob Wilkinson

Cage Corrosion (Current number: 4-4):  Saparbek Safarov

Undefeated Fighters (Current number: 2-6): Israel Adesanya, Tai Tuivasa, Daichi Abe

Twelve Precious Ponderings

1- So given that this fight came about on short notice, how many rounds does the ageless wonder that IS Yoel Romero have in him? 2? 2-3 tops?

2- The most obvious question for me is how will Rockhold handle the athleticism that Romero possesses if it forces him to go backwards? For Rockhold the plan (to me at least) seems obvious; drag Yoel into deep and (Pirates of) dark waters after the 2nd or 3rd round, get him tired and get him down. In theory if he flattens out Romero, he can presumably pound out a tired Romero with torrential ground and pound. Getting there is the problem as Rockhold did not look overly comfortable exchanging on the feet with David Branch who is not exactly the world's best striker. Romero's quick twitch explosive offense is going to be on point in the first and second round while Rockhold's entire path to victory in my estimation is dependent upon his ability to turn those first few rounds into a slow grind en route to an eventual finish. Rockhold hasn't been the same springy athlete he was during his Strikeforce days but he's a hell of a lot stronger than he used to be and his size can drain on folks when he gets clinch happy. At the same time, Romero in the third round has proven to be a pretty damn scary fighter.

3- Do we pencil in the winner of Rockhold/Romero vs Whittaker for sometime in the summer? Robert Whittaker has suggested he expects to be healthy around then and if they cancel UFC 222 as a PPV (a possibility) then maybe the UFC goes back to Australia to try and make up for the lost PPV of March in the Summertime.

4- A lot has been made of the UFC/Mark Hunt relationship and I get it. In all fairness, they gave him  a pretty tough match up here. If Curtis Blaydes can replicate what Stipe Miocic did, he's got a good chance to spoil this Aussie partay with Mark Hunt at the helm. Outside of Stipe, Hunt's takedown defense has held up pretty well but he can still be stalled and neutralized against the cage.

5- There's been a better version of Curtis Blaydes each time he takes to the cage even if his striking still remains at times too wild for its own good and his submission game doesn't seem to be developing much. Even if his confidence comes and goes, Blaydes will likely be his best yet vs Mark Hunt. Whether that's good enough to beat Hunt remains the question.

6- You can almost view the final three fights on the main card as the usual progression of Australian prospects:

Tai Tuivasa- "Oh man we've got a new guy! He's Australian and he looks good! Did you see how he finished that last fight?!"

Tyson Pedro- "Okay so he lost but there's no reason to give up on him just yet. Let's give him a wee bit of a step back and see if he can handle that. If he wins then we're back on course!"

Jake Matthews- "Well we're stuck with him so we might as well figure out what to do with him."

7- That Li Jingliang vs Jake Matthews match is pretty damn interesting if we're being honest for a second or two. He's got four straight wins, three by finish, against relatively okay competition. The likes of Zak Ottow and Frank Camacho have proven their worth as exciting middle of the pack type guys so we at least know he can beat average. While I don't know if Jake Matthews is better than average, I do know that stylistically he'll present a few challenges for The Leech. For starters, Li Jingliang's main slip up came against Keita Nakamura. Matthews and Nakamura do share some similarities; primarily in the way that both are heavy grappling types who seem to excel in those gas out fights where everybody is tired. Nakamura is the more seasoned grappler and better at subs (ask The Leech) but Matthews tends to be more active with top control. It's one of those ugly stylistic challenges that Li Jingliang will have to get by if he wants to be able to have a justifiable case at a top 10 spot in the WW division.

8-Who thinks it's a good idea for Teruto Ishihara to drop down to 135 lbs? That seems really reckless?

9- Alexander Volkanovski vs Jeremy Kennedy is one of those fights that's really hard to get excited about even if you acknowledge that it's a pretty fine fight on paper. Both guys are so similar that this has "Stall against the fence" stamped on it. It's a great fight between two unbeaten prospects at 145 lbs BUT it's just tough to muster up any real excitement given what it presents to be on paper.

10- I'm at that weird spot with Ross Pearson where I don't want to see him take any damage and leave the way he's left before but I also don't want to see him to win and potential incur more damage down the road. All of Ross Pearson's fights recently (since the Felder win at least), FEEL the same. The spirit is still willing and he has flashes of moments where he's in control but he just no longer has the athletic quicks and he doesn't respond to strikes the way you feel like he should. He's in that weird Gray Maynard class where the fighter he once was is gone but the fighter he remains is competitive enough to the point where he's always going to believe he's one win away from rediscovering it.

11- Can Israel Adesanya do what Gokhan Saki did and put a jolt in the UFC?

12- Someone sell me on Daichi Abe, por favor.