Should Occidental Petroleum Really Buy Anadarko?
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) has thrown a spanner in Chevronâs (NYSE: CVX) acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC), and is reportedly well-placed to hijack the deal.
Chevronâs offer for Anadarko stands at $33 billion. The oil major will pay a third of it in the form of stock. Occidental, on the other hand, is willing to pay $38 billion for Anadarko, but half of that will be in the form of shares.
Reuters Breakingsview estimates that Occidentalâs bid is better for Anadarko shareholders:
âEven after paying Chevron a $1 billion break fee, Anadarko shareholders would still collect cash and shares worth 46 percent more, on paper, than the companyâs stock price before the announcement of the merger with Chevron, compared with 42 percent under that deal, according to a new Breakingviews calculator.â
Whatâs more, Occidental has Warren Buffett in its corner for the deal. It is reported that the Oracle of Omaha was willing to invest a handsome $20 billion into Occidental, double of what he has actually invested.
Of course, Buffettâs investment depends on whether or not Occidental manages to land Anadarko and hijackâs Chevronâs move. But it remains to be seen if the deal actually goes through because Occidental is probably facing dissent from shareholders.
Occidental faces a task of convincing shareholders
Reuters reports that major Occidental shareholders are opposed to the deal, especially because of the costly financing agreement in place with Warren Buffett.
For instance, T. Rowe Price, which is a shareholder in all the parties involved and is Occidentalâs sixth largest shareholder, believes that the company can avoid a shareholder vote thanks to Buffettâs financing package. The current Occidental deal requires shareholders to vote on the matter.
Also, Occidental investors are concerned that the premium that the company is paying for Anadarko doesnât seem justified because the latter is a Permian Basin player. As such, the acquisition wonât diversify Occidentalâs holdings as its acreage will be concentrated in just one area.
Moreover, the fact that the oil industry is a cyclical one is another problem for investors. In case of any downturn in oil prices, making such a costly investment for a company of Occidentalâs size doesnât make sense.
Occidentalâs market cap at present is $43 billion, while that of Anadarko is at $36.5 billion. So it would be on the lines of a merger of equals if the transaction goes through. Chevron, on the other hand, is a much bigger company with a market cap of nearly $225 billion.
As such, it will be much easier for Chevron to integrate Anadarko into its operations as it will be better placed to handle any potential downturn in oil prices. Occidental, on the other hand, might have to face bigger challenges as integrating an almost identical company into its operations will be a big task.
In all, it looks like Chevronâs offer could be the better fit, and thatâs why Occidental investors could scuttle the deal.
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