#mktupdate

After price reverted to 1977 off the lows, a series of higher lows were made as delta trended higher. Price broke back above 1977 and reverted to the top of IB lo and continued higher to 1988. The poc shifted from 1973 to 87.25, but then price retreated lower. Since then, price has remained within the 1977-85 range with the POC @ 81.

SPs gapped open higher about +15pts and rallied to 1991.25 before stalling around 915am. The mkt reversed and fell below the midpt/vwap/poc around 1986. Fell to IB lo @ 1980.50, bounced 2-3pts then continued lower to top of Tues mcvpoc @ 1977. Rallied above to 1982, but IB lo broke again and fell into Tues POC area @ 67-72. I began entering long @ 73.75, looking for a reversion to the upside with targets of 76-77 and up to IB lo @ 1980. Mkt continued lower to 68.5, so I entered a larger position to average in to 70.75. New targets were top of prev range near 73-74, and held a runner for 76-77 in case of a break of this range. Higher low was made @ 69 with a trending delta making higher highs as well. Price broke to prev range of 76-78.

The SPs have remained in a range bound holding pattern for two weeks as the FOMC rate decision will occur on Th. Last week I anticipated range bound resistance with a bias to the downside, but that downside flush only occurred on one day. SPs still have 1992-2000 as the top of this range, with higher lows increasing on each dip. This is forming a flag pattern, which I believe will culminate to the downside. If this were a simple correction in the market, the multi-year uptrend would have continued already. However, the uncertainty of what the Fed will do, along with other global markets facing problems, have caused volatility to increase and fear to enter. I'm currently short AAPL via 110 Sep p, and premarket it is currently hitting 117 resist. I will use the pre-order 6S demand news as a way to enter more on the shortside. Looking at the Oct 110p still, as I do believe in one more test to the downside, if not follow-through to newer lows.

For tomorrow, I’d look for resist near 79.5-85. There is a hvn from prev range at 1995, with a gap fill at 2025. Otherwise if the mkt resumes the downtrend, I’ll look for reversion into Mon range, then back into the 1930s.

SPs have broken out of its long term uptrend range established in Feb 2015. Based on price action alone, the clear line in the sand for this downtrend is 2025-2035 max. The current swing high in this downtrend is 1992.75, so that would be my first major line in the sand. On the downside, 1900 has been decent support, but I am not anticipating that to hold yet. According to volume profile analysis, SPs have traded in the hvn of 1960-1880. There is a lvn in the 1860 area, but on the 10% crash day, that area cut through like a knife through hot butter to 1830-20s in the next hvn area. I would anticipate a test of that before any uptrend resumes. Perhaps sell the week2 1930/25 strangle for 42pts...

1.1: +12137.5 on 1040 1.2: +6175 on 965 1.3p4: +5175 on 962 1.3p8: +6087.5 on 966 Despite SPs gapping up higher, grinding upward and finally breaking out to new highs this morning, the VRs and specifically the orig, are positive. Version 1.1 is the best with earning about 1 tick per trade. ES is currently trading above the IB hi @ 1968.75 and has formed an intraday LVN here. Will post new update after lunch

1.1: +8812.5 on 1291 1.2: +2612.5 on 1085 1.3p4: +3200 on 1087 1.3p8: +1912.5 on 1088 14pt range in ES o/n, but relatively slow trade compared to recent days. Interestingly, the orig 1.1 is still the breadwinner for this type of activity. Will update around 10am

1.3p8: +3412.5 on 160