Module 3 Raw Notes ~ Lec 3.1
Is/Ought is a concept brought about by David Hume.
In an irrational mood, an individual may mistake what 'is' as something 'ought' to be.
They may not be able to distinguish between what is correct and what they perceive as correct
What would you do when the train breaks down and delays are incurred? - perhaps find the exit
Not sure where this is going
Assessment of risk is dependent on an individual's past experience and intuition
Statistically, people cannot accurately estimate events with a low probability occurrence
Decisions are also dependent on whether there is a high impact consequence
Taking the risk, even when the probability is high and no consequence had occurred is just as bad as taking the risk and producing a consequence/ impact during failure
- e.g. not using a seatbelt and avoiding an accident is still illegal
- The media sensationalizes the consequence and the risk is still present but not invisible
- This is the case for the BF Skinner pigeon training experiment. A good outcome is usually generated by luck because risk is always present. Habit is therefore created by successful repetition of an action or decision with no consequence however this does not always quantify the decision as correct or safe
Number of Australians dying overseas due to terrorism is less than 200 β not as drastic as perceived by the media
Governments have taken advantage of this obsession with terror to pass legislation that have more oppressive consequences than the terrorism act itself on a long term regard.
Use a risk matrix/register - these are arbitrary and subjective
Richard Fineman β research him
He was transparent about the risks involved with a launch (NASA) - they launched at low temperatures which raised the risk of failure because the O-ring is brittle at that temperature
Top managers in the hierarchy of a company will have a less severe understanding of risk involved with failure (e.g. 1 in 1000000 chance of failure)
Engineers working with the details (lower in the pyramid) will have a higher understanding of failure (e.g. perhaps 1 in 10)
How to develop a genuine risk register?
Use a lot of people with diverse mindsets
You can ask a third party to help you but as all humans are self-interested, there is still bias involved
This is a useful tool for the prevention of unsatisfactory outcomes
Sets the minimum standard for satisfaction but there is no absolute certainty that this standard will correctly apply to all situations
Read about: Sundance Resource Limited β Republic of Congo
Yezhov β head of police for Stalin during the Great Purge
Better that ten innocent people should suffer than one spy get away β what is the significance of this quote
Similar to bits of security
Update table to advise a company of the budget and minimum security bits to secure against different hacker types (hacker, small company, middle, large, Intelligence organisation)