#lawrence sheets

Is 'Soviet Union Light' the Future of Putin's Russia? | Voice of America

By James Brooke

MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin once described the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” Two decades later, he is laboring to create what some critics call a "Soviet Union Light."

FULL ARTICLE (VOA)

Azerbaijan protests take shine off Eurovision | Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Reports about alleged rights violations in Azerbaijan are capturing international attention as the country prepares to host this year's Eurovision song contest.

Eurovision is the most prestigious cultural event in the country since independence from the Soviet Union, and authorities had hoped it would boost the ex-Soviet state's image.

Slick footage from Baku's Crystal Hall shows competitors prancing and posing their way through rehearsals, but images of police breaking up opposition rallies and seizing protesters have caught the attention of many.

"This is part of a broader diplomatic charm offensive to put Azerbaijan on the map, but if you get a lot of attention, you are also much more open to criticism," Lawrence Sheets, Caucasus project director at the International Crisis Group think-tank, said.

Azerbaijan today called on the European Union to help find a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The predominantly ethnic-Armenian territory was occupied by Armenia as the Soviet Union crumbled in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s. Less than a month ago, both Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents expressed their readiness to speed up the process of reaching agreement on the disputed territory during a meeting hosed by the Russian president. “The two have basically agreed at various times what the basic outline of the resolution of the conflict would be,” said Lawrence Sheets, an analyst and expert on the Caucasus region for the International Crisis Group. “It’s incredible because the basic framework – the basic things that the two sides seem to agree one – they same to be in relative commonality,” he told Vatican Radio. “But when you start discussing these smaller issues, which are politically potentially explosive or dangerous to the administrations in control…it becomes very difficult.”

Margaret Talev and Helena Bedwell

President Barack Obama said the U.S. supports Georgia’s aspirations to join NATO and is willing to explore the “possibility” of a free trade agreement.

Following a meeting with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili at the White House, Obama said that the U.S. is ready to help Georgia’s free-market development and promised to continue a dialogue on “how we can continue to strengthen trade releations between our two countries, including the possibility of a free-trade agreement.”

Saakashvili’s visit comes as Georgia, which has 935 troops serving in 50-nation coalition fighting the war in Afghanistan, is seeking membership in NATO. The Georgian president said he was “incredibly grateful” for U.S. support for the bid.

Georgia’s government is striving to recapture the 10 percent or more economic growth it achieved before losing a five-day war with Russia in 2008. Its economy grew 8.7 percent in 2011, Georgia’s statistics office said today, citing preliminary data. Standard & Poor’s raised its credit rating one level last month to BB-, three short of investment grade, citing “improving public finances.” Fitch followed suit Dec. 15.

Trade between the two nations has been increasing and the U.S. concluded a framework accord for reaching a trade agreement with Georgia in 2007. Commerce last year between the two countries totaled $681 million last year, up from $499 million the year before, according to the Census Bureau figures.

No Timetable

Saakashvili said outside the White House that there was no timetable for working on a free-trade agreement.

He also said a working group from the two nations would be addressing his administration’s request for the U.S. to sell or provide heavy weapons to Georgia.

Obama today made a commitment to Georgia’s right to self- defense, which represents an “elevation” of the U.S.-Georgia relationship, Saakashvili said.

Lawrence Sheets, South Caucasus project director for the International Crisis Group in Tbilisi, said Saakashvili’s visit would have been politically difficult for the U.S. a year ago while Washington and Moscow were working on a so-called “reset” in their relations. Russian-American ties have since worsened.

Saakashvili and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev have yet to restore diplomatic relations between their two nations. Saakashvili is calling for Russia to remove “illegal embassies” from two occupied regions, while Medvedev has declined to meet or speak with Saakashvili.

Afghanistan Commitment

Sheets said there is “genuine U.S. gratitude” for Georgia’s commitment in Afghanistan. Still, he said, the U.S. needs to signal that relations could suffer if Georgia’s elections process later this year appears to be tainted.

The White House, in a release ahead of today’s meeting, said Obama planned to discuss the elections and “reforms that will ensure Georgia’s continuing transformation into a vibrant and stable democratic state.” Obama said today he expects the elections to be “free and fair.”

Saakashvili said that “nothing can bring us back” to less democratic practices.

Even with U.S. support, Georgia faces hurdles in getting approved for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said Damon Wilson, a former NATO adviser and senior director for European affairs at the White House National Security Council.

Future Consideration

It’s not likely to be settled when the alliance holds its summit in May in Chicago, he said.

“There is an effort to keep enlargement off the table,” Wilson, executive vice president of the Atlantic Council, told reporters in Washington today.

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said during a November visit to the Georgian capital Tbilisi that, while Georgia had come “a lot closer” to joining the alliance, “further reforms will be” needed.

Georgia is among a group of countries that Defense Secretary Leon Panetta wants to link more closely to NATO because of their consistent contributions to alliance missions such as the war in Afghanistan or the Libya operation last year, Wilson said. The other countries include Australia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Sweden and Finland.

Eight Pieces of Empire, recently published by ICG South Caucasus Project Director Lawrence Sheets, presents a engrossing description of the atrocities committed in the aftermath of the Soviet Union collapse. An excerpt of the his book review by The Washington Times follows: 

The emerging independent states were a lumpy and unassimilated blend of scores of national, racial and religious groups, many nursing grievances - make that hatreds - stretching back into the mists of time. Only the strong hand of the czars and Soviet leaders such as Josef Stalin had maintained relative peace. As Mr. Sheets points out, many of the conflicts he covered started with trivial provocations.

Consider Georgia, once the richest corner of the Soviet Union, with abundant agriculture, its Black Sea beaches dotted with luxurious resorts owned by the Soviet hierarchy. But the Abkhaz people, who made up 17 percent of the population, wished to break away from the Georgians, who accounted for 45 percent. A “national guard” unit was sent out supposedly to maintain the peace, but soon things degenerated into open warfare. Much of Georgia was laid to waste, with Russian artillery and bombs doing much of the damage.

A victim of the collapse was Eduard Shevardnadze, a Georgian who had served as Soviet foreign minister under Mr. Gorbachev and then become head of state in Georgia. Mr. Sheets rode on the presidential plane when “Shevvy” went to the United Nations to plead for help in restoring peace. But few of the Georgian officials and journalists who accompanied him bothered to attend his speech. “They skipped the protocol bit and busied themselves scouring the bowels of the Bronx for cut-rate TVs and stereos.” Shevvy’s plane “became a flying warehouse of cheap electronics.”

Perhaps the saddest story in Mr. Sheets‘ litany of agony was Chechnya, a Connecticut-size state that took the czars longer than any other to “pacify” in the 19th century. Stalin packed much of the population off to Siberia in 1944 lest the people cooperate with the Germans; the remaining million or so hated the Soviets, and a strongly anti-Moscow government sprang into being once the Soviet Union collapsed.

Book Review by Joseph C. Goulden