Real thing on my reading list for comprehensive exams:
Graeber, D. (2018). Bullshit Jobs, A Theory. Simon & Schuster.

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Real thing on my reading list for comprehensive exams:
Graeber, D. (2018). Bullshit Jobs, A Theory. Simon & Schuster.

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Is the AI Labor Market Disruption Finally Showing Up? New Data from Anthropic.
There has been a lot of noise about AI replacing jobs, but most of it has been based on "theoretical capability"âwhat a model could do in a vacuum.
A new report from Anthropic ("Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence") just changed the conversation by looking at Observed Exposure. Instead of asking "Can AI code?", they looked at "Is AI actually being used to automate coding tasks in the real world?"
At Frugal Scientific, we believe in the power of data-driven pragmatism. Here are my three main takeaways from this landmark study:
1. The "Capability-Usage Gap" is Massive
While researchers like Eloundou et al. suggest that 94% of tasks in Computer & Math occupations are theoretically exposed to LLMs, Anthropicâs real-world data shows actual coverage is only at 33%.
The Insight:Â Theoretical potential is not the same as economic deployment. Legal hurdles, the need for human verification, and complex software integrations act as "frictions" that slow down displacement. We are in the "deployment lag" phase.
2. The "Canaries in the Coal Mine" are Young Workers
While aggregate unemployment hasn't spiked (yet), the data shows a significant "chilling effect" on new entrants.
There is a 14% drop in the job finding rate for workers aged 22-25 in high-exposure occupations (like software dev, customer service, and data entry).
Experienced workers are staying put, but the "entry-level" door is narrowing.
3. High Exposure â Low Income
Interestingly, the workers most exposed to AI are actually higher-paid, more educated, and more likely to have graduate degrees. This isn't the robotics revolution of the 90s that hit manual labour; this is a white-collar transformation.
The Top 10 Most Exposed Occupations
Based on Anthropicâs "Observed Exposure" metric, these are the roles seeing the highest levels of real-world automated usage:
Â
Â
Occupation
Observed Exposure
Leading Automated Task
Computer Programmers
74.5%
Writing and maintaining software programs
Customer Service Reps
70.1%
Handling complaints and orders
Data Entry Keyers
67.1%
Entering data from source documents
Medical Record Specialists
66.7%
Coding patient data
Market Research Analysts
64.8%
Translating complex findings into reports
Sales Reps (Wholesale)
62.8%
Demonstrating products/soliciting orders
Financial Analysts
57.2%
Analysing financial info to forecast trends
Software QA & Testers
51.9%
Modifying software to correct errors
Info Security Analysts
48.6%
Risk assessments and security testing
Computer Support Specialists
46.8%
Resolving user hardware/software inquiries
Theory vs. Reality:Where the Gap is WidestÂ
The difference between what AI can do and what it is actually doing is starkest in technical and administrative fields.
Computer & Math:Theoretically 94% exposed, but only 33% observed.
Office & Admin:Â Theoretically 90% exposed, but significantly lower in actual automated deployment.
Methodology Spotlight: How Anthropic Measured This How did they move past theory? They utilized the Anthropic Economic Index, which analyzes millions of real-world interactions with Claude to map them against the O*NET database.
The "Observed Exposure" score isn't just a count of mentions; it is weighted based on:
Work-related Context:Â Distinguishing professional use from casual chat.
Automation vs. Augmentation:Â Full automated implementations (like API-driven workflows) receive double the weight of simple "human-in-the-loop" augmentation.
Semantic Mapping:Â Using advanced embedding models to match user prompts to specific occupational tasks.
What does this mean for the "Frugal" approach to science and business? It means the value of "standard" cognitive output is deflating. If a task can be observed in API traffic as "automated," its market value will trend toward the cost of the tokens. The premium is shifting rapidly toward system-level thinking, human-in-the-loop verification, and complex problem-solving that hasn't hit the "Observed Exposure" threshold yet.
The report concludes that while we haven't seen a "Great Recession" for white-collar workers yet, the signals in youth hiring are a warning we shouldn't ignore.
Source: "Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence" by Maxim Massenkoff and Peter McCrory (March 2026).
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[ICYMI đđđ] State of Maryland (AMNG) âAJCs offer comprehensive employment, training, and business services. They help job seekers and employers fully participate in the stateâs expanding economic recovery. To find the nearest AJC and current information, visit http://labor.maryland.gov/county.â https://cbsloc.al/3eAxxxL#.YP7PQr0Z7tU.twitter Cc : MdLabor #jobsearch #careeradvancement #mdlabormarket #laboreconomics #mdeconomy #mdworkforce (at United States of America) https://www.instagram.com/p/CRy4OmZMQP_/?utm_medium=tumblr
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#LaborPolicy #LaborEconomics #thefutureofwork #greennewdeal #whatisagoodjob #MTU #michigantech #phdblr #studyblr #studygram #bestmugever (at Michigan Technological University) https://www.instagram.com/p/Bvt954Bh4US2g4Fh4cmwTcn5pBG7MBmzDdkWeE0/?utm_source=ig_tumblr_share&igshid=1qmnrik8sch5z
"The two most common occupations in the United States are retail salesperson and cashier. Eight million people have one of those two jobs, which typically pay about $9â$10 per hour. [..] This is possible because the minimum wage that businesses must pay is low: only $7.25 per hour in the United States in 2016 (although it is higher in some states and cities). At that rate, a person working full-time for a whole year, with no vacations or holidays, earns about $15,000âwhich is below the poverty line for a family of two, let alone a family of four. A minimum-wage employee is poor enough to qualify for food stamps and, in most states, Medicaid. Adjusted for inflation, the federal minimum is roughly the same as in the 1960s and 1970s, despite significant increases in average living standards over that period. The United States currently has the lowest minimum wage, as a proportion of its average wage, of any advanced economy [..] The idea that a higher minimum wage might not increase unemployment runs directly counter to the lessons of Economics 101. According to the textbook, if labor becomes more expensive, companies buy less of it. But there are several reasons why the real world does not behave so predictably. Although the standard model predicts that employers will replace workers with machines if wages increase, additional labor-saving technologies are not available to every company at a reasonable cost. Small employers in particular have limited flexibility; at their scale, they may not be able to maintain their operations with fewer workers. [..] Therefore, some companies canât lay off employees if the minimum wage is increased. At the other extreme, very large employers may have enough market power that the usual supply-and-demand model doesnât apply to them. They can reduce the wage level by hiring fewer workers (only those willing to work for low pay), just as a monopolist can boost prices by cutting production (think of an oil cartel, for example). A minimum wage forces them to pay more, which eliminates the incentive to minimize their workforce. In the above examples, a higher minimum wage will raise labor costs. But many companies can recoup cost increases in the form of higher prices; because most of their customers are not poor, the net effect is to transfer money from higher-income to lower-income families. [..] hiring and training costs, among other things. If fewer people quit their jobs, that also reduces the number of people who are out of work at any one time because theyâre looking for something better. A higher minimum wage motivates more people to enter the labor force, raising both employment and output. Finally, higher pay increases workersâ buying power. Because poor people spend a relatively large proportion of their income, a higher minimum wage can boost overall economic activity and stimulate economic growth, creating more jobs. All of these factors vastly complicate the two-dimensional diagram taught in Economics 101 and help explain why a higher minimum wage does not necessarily throw people out of work. The supply-and-demand diagram is a good conceptual starting point for thinking about the minimum wage. But on its own, it has limited predictive value in the much more complex real world. Even if a higher minimum wage does cause some people to lose their jobs, that cost has to be balanced against the benefit of greater earnings for other low-income workers. [..] In short, whether the minimum wage should be increased (or eliminated) is a complicated question. The economic research is difficult to parse, and arguments often turn on sophisticated econometric details. Any change in the minimum wage would have different effects on different groups of people, and should also be compared with other policies that could help the working poorâsuch as the negative income tax (a cash grant to low-income households, similar to todayâs Earned Income Tax Credit) favored by Milton Friedman, or the guaranteed minimum income that Friedrich Hayek assumed would exist."
Today we published our 200th evidence-based article in #labor #economics. Thank you to all of our wonderful authors! You can read all of our articles here: http://wol.iza.org/articles