#it's elementary

Dear Hikari,

A battle to the death against our good friend Mr. van Zieks, you say?  Your hypothesis sounds right on the money, but I’m afraid proving it would be quite impossible without a few, shall we say, unfortunate consequences.  As such, it will remain an unsolved mystery.

But I believe your question was about my own hypothesis, wasn’t it?  Depending on the sort of duel, I suppose my chances of victory would range from 50 to 80 percent on a good day.  If I happened to be a bit under the weather, it may drop as low as 30 percent.  There’s a fair bit of luck involved in these things, you know.