How many Kryn souls will be born in the Empire?
A riddle
Sometimes you're trying to write a character becoming obsessed with a calculation problem and you accidentally face-plant into being obsessed yourself. That being said, the fanfic in question is Temporal Shunt, so if you want to have a look, have fun!
The brain teaser in question is: How many children will be born outside the Dynasty with Kryn/Dynasty souls because of Essek's theft and where will these souls be born?
First of all, it's necessary to preface this strange brain teaser with the fact all my calculations here are based on some profoundly huge assumptions.
1) Presuming a child is born within range of either of the beacons stolen and taken to the Empire, there is a corresponding soul available in the beacon. This treats each beacon's souls as unlimited as far as this calculation is concerned. We have, as far as I can tell, no idea how many souls are in each of the beacons Essek stole, nor does he seem to know how many souls are in a beacon or if souls can cross between beacons through some sort of shared planar space. Ultimately, the floor of this calculation is 0, if somehow both beacons were empty.
2) A single beacon can cover the full area of Rexxentrum and/or Zadash in its radius. I cannot find records of their throw, but given that the Dynasty only has a few and they strive to have most consecuted souls within a beacon's radius, I think we can assume around a beacon per city?
3) The beacons cannot emit souls from inside the lead box & bag of holding.
4) Halfling and Human birthrates are approximately the same. Human birthrates in this period are approximately the current US birthrate (12 per 1,000 people per year). That assumption, I know is massive, because on the one hand, more agrarian society and D&D ye olde times. On the other hand, birth control potions?! I don't know how to handle all that, so I stuck to 12 per 1,000 and let the extra month's (11 months in the Exandrian year vs 12 in an Earth year) be the allowance for the more agrarian society.
Even given all these assumptions, these calculations end up being a massive shrug, because we don't have an actual date on which Essek gave the beacons. We have him saying it had been three years since the "start of the conspiracy" (see "Dark Waters" (2x98) at 16:58), but I would argue that context clues indicate that's when they started corresponding, not when Essek handed over the beacons. That means Essek really could have handed over the beacons at almost any point between Thunsheer 833 PD (3 years before when he says that, in Thunsheer 836 PD). For the sake of all of our sanity, I have set bounds of Thunsheer 834 PD as the earliest time Essek might have handed over the beacons (1 year of correspondence) and Thunsheer 835 PD (2 years of correspondence) as the latest time. The early bound is based on the idea that it would likely take a reasonable amount of time for the Assembly to convince him to commit massive treason. The later bound is a marker of pure convenience for me.
That gives us the rough time span of:
Now, given that gnarly chunk of assumptions, we have another mystery to tackle. Where was the Assembly keeping the beacons? For lack of a better argument (though feel free to make one, if you're feeling so inspired) I'm going to assume the Nein's beacon/Zadash Beacon is in Zadash from the time it is stolen up until it comes into the Nein's possession. The other beacon is even more uncertain. We know it was in Felderwin for some span of time, so I've made the executive decision to assume it was in Rexxentrum briefly, then Felderwin for most of the time, then back to Rexxentrum shortly before Yeza's shop was ruined. I am also assuming the Nein discovered the ruin of Yeza's shop within a week or two of the attack.
Let's make it even crazier! When I went into this calculation fugue state, I was particularly interested in whether or not the Nein spread souls all over the Empire at large, the Clovis Concord, and beyond as they went on their pre-Dynasty adventures and took the beacon out to get Fragments of Possibility. I therefore made the assumption that getting a fragment takes around 1 minute, although as you will see, the exact timeframe, short of hours, does not really matter. I also assume that except for when Caleb just like... took a nap with the beacon in Zadash, they replaced the beacon in the lead box and their bag as soon as they received the fragment.
That gives us, thanks to CritRoleStats and Critical Role Linkable Transcripts for beacon viewing timestamps and Explorer's Guide to Wildemount for the city populations:
So, for poor Essek's conscience, that's somewhere between 0-168 children in Felderwin, 0-1,119 children in Rexxentrum, and 0-1,362 children in Zadash. Of course, families may move, so there's no guarantee those children will still be in each of those places when they experience anamnesis, but according to my incredibly slushy math, there will likely be a Nogvurut Situation in around 13 years in Felderwin, Rexxentrum, and Zadash.
Well, that's all I've got. The assumptions are messy, the calculations are rough, and the results are uncertain, but hey, when you're given such a fun riddle... how can you not?
