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The Daily Decision-15-Conjunction fallacy Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision because you want to make better decisions. M4A MP3   Today is the FIFTEENTH episode of The Daily Decision Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. When she was in college, she majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in progressive demonstrations. Which is more probable now? Linda is a bank teller. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement. Most people say B, but the correct answer is A Why? This is an example of the conjunction fallacy in decision making and the Linda example is from Kahneman and Tversky 1982. That is when we hear two things, we automatically add them. After all, 2 is greater than 1 but in probabilities 2 is less than 1. In Linda’s case, we can assign a 5% probability to Linda being a bank teller and 95% probability of Linda being active in the feminist movement. When we multiple .05 * .95, we get .0475 which is less than 5%. When you’re confronted with a decision with multiple parts. Isolate them before considering their connections. -- Subscribe to Dr. Z Podcasts to follow other programs such as the People Behind the PhDs, Organ Oracles, and Leaders on the Line. All podcasts are based on my upcoming book. The 6A’s a practical philosophy for living life with meaning and purpose. Read the full article

The Daily Decision-11-Shortcuts, Heuristics Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision because you want to make better decisions. M4A MP3   Today is the ELEVENTH episode of The Daily Decision In the last episode, we talked about biases and that knowing about them helps us recognize blind spots, avoid traps, and make better decisions. Today the topic is “heuristics.” What’s that? Heuristics are mental shortcuts to make decisions. They may work much of the time, but they don’t work all of the time. Heuristics comes from ancient Greek which means “to find” or to “discover.” A rule of thumb or educated guess are examples of using a heuristic to make a quick decision that has the practical effect of solving a problem quickly but may not solve a problem for a longer duration. An example rule of thumb is that 20% of the input creates 80% of the result. While this observation may be useful, over relying on this heuristic can limit your best decisions. What heuristics do you use in your own life? How far do they take you? -- Subscribe to Dr. Z Podcasts to follow other programs such as the People Behind the PhDs, Organ Oracles, and Leaders on the Line. All podcasts are based on my upcoming book. The 6A’s a practical philosophy for living life with meaning and purpose.  Follow me at DR-Z.net, iTunes, and Facebook at DRZPodcasts. Read the full article

The Daily Decision-12-Confirmation Bias Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision because you want to make better decisions. M4A MP3   Today is the TWELEVTH episode of The Daily Decision In the TENTH episode, we began discussing biases that can be divided into 3 types: decision making biases, social biases, and memory biases Today we will talk about the “Mother of All Biases.” Confirmation Bias. Simply put, Confirmation Bias is the tendency to look, find, and interpret information that confirms an already held belief. It is the mother of all biases because of its circular nature. It hides inside the starting point of our decisions. For example, if you believe that left-handed people are more creative than right-handed people, then every time you meet a left-handed person you will unconsciously look for “evidence” to support your existing belief. In other words, people see what they want to see. You can use confirmation biases in positive and negative ways. You can look at your students as brilliant or see your employees as underperforming. In both cases, your brain will seek out evidence to support your belief. Always be woke when it comes to confirmation biases. -- Subscribe to Dr. Z Podcasts to follow other programs such as the People Behind the PhDs, Organ Oracles, and Leaders on the Line. All podcasts are based on my upcoming book. The 6A’s a practical philosophy for living life with meaning and purpose. Read the full article

The Daily Decision-13-Anchoring bias Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision because you want to make better decisions. M4A MP3   Today is the THIRTEENTH episode of The Daily Decision Think of a boat and an anchor. A boat docks close the shore and drops its anchor so it cannot be blown away by the wind. A psychological anchor is similar. When we believe a piece of information, it is hard to have winds blow us away from that position. An anchoring bias occurs when we rely too much on one piece of information, usually the first piece of information presented. In one famous study by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1974, people were asked to estimate how many African countries were part of the United Nations. There are currently 193. When presented with the number 10, the guesses were lower. Participants estimated that African countries represented 25% of all UN countries. When presented with the number 65, the guesses were higher. Participants estimated that African countries represented 45% of all UN countries. Think about your own anchors while making a big purchase, say a car or home. Be aware of how the first number you hear can anchor your decisions, but not always in your favor. -- Subscribe to Dr. Z Podcasts to follow other programs such as the People Behind the PhDs, Organ Oracles, and Leaders on the Line. All podcasts are based on my upcoming book. Read the full article

The Daily Decision-14-Availability bias Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision because you want to make better decisions. M4A MP3   Today is the FOURTEETH episode of The Daily Decision Cars or planes? Roofers or Border Patrol agents? Cows or Sharks? Of these pairs which one is more deadly? Most people would say flying is more dangerous than driving, being a Border Patrol agent is more dangerous than being a roofer, and sharks are more deadly than cows. In each case, those answers are incorrect and point out The Availability Bias. Which is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events with greater "availability" in memory If a memory is recent, unusual, or emotional, it is likely to be more available and more usable to make decisions Available doesn’t mean accurate however so the next time you hear of a major event on the news, pause to avoid falling into the availability          bias trap. Ask yourself, just because it’s easier to remember something, does it make it more true? -- Subscribe to Dr. Z Podcasts to follow other programs such as the People Behind the PhDs, Organ Oracles, and Leaders on the Line. All podcasts are based on my upcoming book. The 6A’s a practical philosophy for living life with meaning and purpose.  Follow me at DR-Z.net, iTunes, and Facebook at DRZPodcasts. If you have an idea for a podcast, contact me and maybe we can find a way to create your own podcast produced by me, Dr. Read the full article