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The Daily Decision-15-Conjunction fallacy Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision because you want to make better decisions. M4A MP3   Today is the FIFTEENTH episode of The Daily Decision Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. When she was in college, she majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in progressive demonstrations. Which is more probable now? Linda is a bank teller. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement. Most people say B, but the correct answer is A Why? This is an example of the conjunction fallacy in decision making and the Linda example is from Kahneman and Tversky 1982. That is when we hear two things, we automatically add them. After all, 2 is greater than 1 but in probabilities 2 is less than 1. In Linda’s case, we can assign a 5% probability to Linda being a bank teller and 95% probability of Linda being active in the feminist movement. When we multiple .05 * .95, we get .0475 which is less than 5%. When you’re confronted with a decision with multiple parts. Isolate them before considering their connections. -- Subscribe to Dr. Z Podcasts to follow other programs such as the People Behind the PhDs, Organ Oracles, and Leaders on the Line. All podcasts are based on my upcoming book. The 6A’s a practical philosophy for living life with meaning and purpose. Read the full article

The Daily Decision-11-Shortcuts, Heuristics Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision because you want to make better decisions. M4A MP3   Today is the ELEVENTH episode of The Daily Decision In the last episode, we talked about biases and that knowing about them helps us recognize blind spots, avoid traps, and make better decisions. Today the topic is “heuristics.” What’s that? Heuristics are mental shortcuts to make decisions. They may work much of the time, but they don’t work all of the time. Heuristics comes from ancient Greek which means “to find” or to “discover.” A rule of thumb or educated guess are examples of using a heuristic to make a quick decision that has the practical effect of solving a problem quickly but may not solve a problem for a longer duration. An example rule of thumb is that 20% of the input creates 80% of the result. While this observation may be useful, over relying on this heuristic can limit your best decisions. What heuristics do you use in your own life? How far do they take you? -- Subscribe to Dr. Z Podcasts to follow other programs such as the People Behind the PhDs, Organ Oracles, and Leaders on the Line. All podcasts are based on my upcoming book. The 6A’s a practical philosophy for living life with meaning and purpose.  Follow me at DR-Z.net, iTunes, and Facebook at DRZPodcasts. Read the full article

Podcast 03: Bilingual Decision Making: Cognitive Reflection Test The Cognitive Reflection Test reveals system 1 and system 2 thinking. How do these systems work with second language speakers? *donations help offset time, energy, and production costs ... suggested donation is $1.80 About Thanks for visiting my site. Enjoy the content. Donate if you're able. And please send me questions and comments. Check out podcasts on Bilingual Decision Making, Organ Oracles, People Behind the PhDs, Win or Learn, and About-ish. *I earned a doctorate in Second Language Acquisition with concentrations in cognitive science and management from the University of Arizona. Dr. Z I am a doctor, but not a medical doctor I earned an academic doctorate, or PhD, hence Dr. + my first name = Dr. Z My first name is Zach or Zachary comes from the Bible which means “to remember” and it is the name of a prophet in the Bible, Zechariah, and according to Wikipedia Zechariah was a person in the Hebrew Bible and traditionally considered the author of the Book of Zechariah, the eleventh of the Twelve Minor Prophets. In other words, he was second to last. But Zachary also has an origin in Greek. Záchari means sugar. Think saccharine then say Zach. Hear the relation? Anyway … What’s a PhD? It means Doctor of Philosophy which sounds pretty cool. Read the full article

The Daily Decision-12-Confirmation Bias Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision because you want to make better decisions. M4A MP3   Today is the TWELEVTH episode of The Daily Decision In the TENTH episode, we began discussing biases that can be divided into 3 types: decision making biases, social biases, and memory biases Today we will talk about the “Mother of All Biases.” Confirmation Bias. Simply put, Confirmation Bias is the tendency to look, find, and interpret information that confirms an already held belief. It is the mother of all biases because of its circular nature. It hides inside the starting point of our decisions. For example, if you believe that left-handed people are more creative than right-handed people, then every time you meet a left-handed person you will unconsciously look for “evidence” to support your existing belief. In other words, people see what they want to see. You can use confirmation biases in positive and negative ways. You can look at your students as brilliant or see your employees as underperforming. In both cases, your brain will seek out evidence to support your belief. Always be woke when it comes to confirmation biases. -- Subscribe to Dr. Z Podcasts to follow other programs such as the People Behind the PhDs, Organ Oracles, and Leaders on the Line. All podcasts are based on my upcoming book. The 6A’s a practical philosophy for living life with meaning and purpose. Read the full article