The event prior to the second major of the year, the US open, the St Jude Classic finds itself with a good field. Daniel Berger comes here after winning the previous two editions. 

The course is TPC Southwind, hosting its 30th edition of the event. It is a par 70 at 7244 yards. The greens are Bermuda and are quite small targets. The iconic par 3 11th hole is similar is stature to the 17th at TPC Sawgrass. Water is in play on 10 holes.

13 Players in total (at the time of writing) will be teeing it up at TPC Southwind who are also heading onto Shinnecock.

There are a number of players who love this course and perform well year after year. The obvious one is Berger, who has a 100% winning record on this course. Another is Mickelson, whose form here reads: 9 - T2 - T3 - T11 - T2. Ben Crane is a past champion of the event who also regularly performs well. Billy Horschel and Harris English are also very competent at TPC Southwind. A mixture of super ball strikers (DJ, Berger, English, Westwood) and short game wizards (Gay, Crane, Toms) make up the past champs here.

The weather forecast for the week looks very good, maybe a little hot. No wind to speak of.

Key Stats

The stats that I have used to inform my picks are as follows:

GIR - The small greens are difficult to hit around Southwind, supreme iron play is required.

Scrambling - Greens will be missed due to their small size, past champions have generally scrambled efficiently on their road to victory.

Par 4 Scoring - particularly with a focus on those in the 450-500 yard range - of which there are eight in total.

Course form - There are a number of players who regularly perform well here. However, I would not rule out a first timer or someone with a so-so record (English won on his first attempt, as did DJ and Berger). I have also factored in similar courses such as El Camaleon, Waialaie, Sea Island and Coco Beach.

Based on these stats I came up with a ranking as follows (Generated using Fantasy Nationals stats database, highly recommended):

From this list I have narrowed down my shortlist to the following:

Brooks Koepka - Previous results at TPC Southwind - 37- 2 - 3 - 19

Brooks is playing incredibly well considering his wrist injury late last year. He has only played 3 events since January. He was close to winning The Fort Worth Invitational, pushing Rose all the way. Following a week off and with the defence of his US Open title looming I feel he will be raring to go this week. 

His recent form puts him a the top of most of the key variables this week. For his last 12 rounds he ranks (out of this field) 3rd in scrambling, 23rd in Ball striking, 1st in Par 4 Scoring and 15th in GIR.

His price is short, but he is an elite player in supreme form. At the moment I think he offers much better value than DJ or Stenson.

Odds: 12/1 - Win only 4pts

Russell Knox -  Previous results at TPC Southwind - 37 - 8 - MC - 74

Russell’s recent form reads 44 - 20 - 16

His putting isn’t great at the moment but he is giving himself a lot of chances with his red hot iron play. He currently ranks 7th in GIR % on tour and 8th in average proximity. 

He also has strong finishes at correlated courses this year - 9th at the OHL Classic and 10th at the Sony Open.

Odds - 66/1 - 1pt each way - 7 places 1/5

Joel Dahmen - Top 20 -  Previous results at TPC Southwind - 18 (2017)

I’ll be honest, Dahmen popping up so highly on my stat rankings did surprise me a little, but quite simply his ball striking recently has put him up there. 

He has finished in the top 20 in his last three events with impressive ball striking performances.

He also encouraged me with a good showing here last year in his first appearance at TPC Southwind.

He looks a good top 20 bet and small stakes outright.

Odds - 150/1 outright 0.5pts - 6 places each way and 2 pt top 20 @ 6.5/1

Peter Uihlein -  Previous results at TPC Southwind - 78 (2017)

Like Koepka, Uihlein is in great form. He finished in the top 5 at Memorial and again at the Wells Fargo with a top 25 at the Byron Nelson in between. 

His ball striking right now is quite possibly the best it has been since he switched to playing his golf stateside. 

As you can see from the screen grab, his game is in great shape for this course. 

He must have an eye on his Ryder Cup ranking also. He needs to improve, and very quickly if he is going to have chance to make the team. This could be a great week to do just that. 

In terms of recent form, he ranks 2nd for scrambling, 7th for ball striking, 4th for par 4 performance and 16th in GIR. His final round at Memorial was very impressive, a bogey-free 66.

He surely has the talent to win multiple times on the PGA tour. His victory at the Web.com finals to get his playing rights is an indication of that.

Odds: 40/1 1pt each way - 6 places 1/5 (posted to Twitter when 50/1)

Ben Crane -  Previous results at TPC Southwind - 10 - 41 - 37 - 1 - 18

A TPC Southwind specialist. Crane is also coming in with some strong form with an 8th place finish at the Fort Worth Invitational and an 11th in Texas two weeks prior to that.

A very deliberate player (AKA slow) Ben performs well on par 70s when the focus is more on par 4 scoring as opposed to taking on the par 5s. 

His putting has returned to a much higher standard this year (top 30 in Strokes gained putting this year as opposed to 100+ last year). He is ranked in the top 20 for par 4 scoring this season.

Odds: 100/1 0.75pts each way 6 places 1/5

Tony Finau -  First time at TPC Southwind - 

Recent form - 13 - 57 - 21 - 10 - 24

A good week last week for Finau at the Memorial with a good all round showing makes me think he is ready to push on and get his second tour win. 

His tee to green game returned to its usual consistency last week. He is also putting better than he normally does, a dangerous combination when you consider this guys power.

He is another guy on the fringes of the US Ryder cup team - currently ranked 17th. A big week here will certainly be a step in the right direction. I definitely feel like the Ryder cup is coming into the thought process now for some of these players - especially when looking at the leaderboard at the Italian Open over the weekend. The likes of Gmac, Pieters, Sullivan, Westwood, Kaymer, Willett and Poulter all rising to the top which leads one to think that they eye on their Ryder cup rankings or impressing enough in the next few months for a captains picks.

28/1 1.5pts each way - 5 places 1/4 (Posted to Twitter when 33/1)

Here it is again, the best tournament in all of golf (in my opinion). The Masters is the first major of the year and, as always, is hosted at Augusta National Golf Club. This venue is really special and is the absolute pinnacle of the golfing world.

There are a number of patterns and trends amongst the recent winners of this tournament. For example, rookies do not fair well at Augusta with course experience being vital.

Driving distance is also a factor at the Masters with the last five winners all averaging over 290 yards - just take a look at the last four winners - Watson, Schwartzel, Phil and Angel - all of which are renowned for big hitting. This factor is also increased if the course is particularly wet with the ball not running out as far.

What is also key is how the players play the par 5s. This is because these offer up the best chance of birdies around this long golf course.

Course experience is key mainly due to the very tricky greens at Augusta National which often run as fast as 14 on the stimp meter. The combination of the undulations and fast greens make putting a nightmare for those who are not used to them - hence making course experience vital and thus ruling out rookies from the picture.

Age is also important here - only one player in recent times has won from the over 40s category - and that was Mark O'Meara in 1998.

Another factor that seems to have some influence when looking at past champions is a link to the South of America - Bubba, Schwartzel, Phil, Immelman, Johnson and Tiger all have some ties to the southern US states - whether that is where they stay while they reside in the states, where they played their college golf or their place of birth - or a combo of all three.

With these in mind I have made several picks - some of which are influenced by all or atleast some of the factors mentioned previously.

Peter Hanson @ 100/1 (Paddy Power and Sky Bet)

Peter's price looks way too big considering his good form on the PGA Tour this year as well as his third place finish at Augusta last year which has really seemed to elevate his game.

Since that third place he has won the BMW Masters where he held off Rory McIlroy in the final round. 

Peter also has the power to contend at Augusta, which is a very important factor when you consider that the last five champions all averaged drives of over 290 yards for the season. Peter is currently averaging 292 yards (as of the 23rd of March).

Stake: 0.5 pts E/W @ 100/1 - six places each way with Paddy Power

Second is Sergio Garcia @ 40/1 (Paddy Power - 6 places)

I, along with a few others I am sure, am astounded that Sergio has still never broke his major duck. I think he has all the assets to end that run at Augusta this year. 

He averages over 290 yards and when he is on with the driver, he is arguably one of the best drivers in all of golf. 

Admittedly his achilles heal is the putter - but with his new 'pencil' grip that has vastly improved - ranking 30th in strokes gained putting this year.

He also ranks sixth in par 5 scoring which will be key at this years Masters as it always is with these presenting the best opportunities to make birdies or even eagles.

For me it is down to Sergio's temperament when in contention as to whether he can win here or not. He is always too hard on himself and unless that improves he will never win one of the big ones. Hopefully this week will be when he realises that!

Stake: 1 pt E/W @ 40/1 - six places with Paddy Power.

Third Pick: Dustin Johnson @ 33/1 - Paddy Power

Dustin is destined to win a major very soon. He is the second best player under thirty in my opinion (with Rory being the obvious best). He has already won seven times on the PGA tour and had a number of close shaves in majors - the Open and PGA to name a few.

After a great start to the year at Kapalua he has had a quieter time, but a return to form at the Houston Open (on a track similar to Augusta) tells me his game is back where it needs to be heading into Augusta.

He has got bundles of power and can tear apart the par 5s on this course. He also has the links to the southern US states which seems to be a pattern in winners enclosure at Augusta National - being from South Carolina and residing in Florida.

His putting is questionable at times when in contention but this is improving all the time as he is in contention more and more. 

Let's just hope his head is focused on the golf and not his new girlfriend...

Stake: 1.5 pts E/W @ 33/1 - six places each way

Final each way outright bet is: Keegan Bradley @ 33/1

Keegan is a quality all around golfer and it could be argued that he has few flaws in his game. A strong showing in the Ryder Cup and building upon his PGA championship win has told us that.

Keegan is a great ball striker and can get very hot with the putter. I did fancy him last year but his lack of course experience put me off but now he has played Augusta I feel he has a great chance and his price is fair.

He ranks second in par 5 scoring on tour (behind only Woods) and averages over 300 yards off the tee as well as living in Florida - which has a similar feel to Georgia.

Stake: 1.5 pts E/W @ 33/1

Keegan, Sergio and Dustin all ranked very highly stats wise - only behind the sublime Woods. What put me off Woods was the price as well as the fact that the number ranked golfer often fails to win at Augusta - with Woods the only one to do it whilst carrying the number one golfer tag.

This week sees the European Tour travel to the Netherlands for the KLM Open hosted at Hilversumsche GC, for the third successive year, but it was also the tournament venue from 2002 to 2005 and many times prior to this. I will not be previewing or betting on the BMW in the playoffs this week so I will be tipping six players in this week’s KLM Open, normally I would not choose so many.

In 2011 England’s Simon Dyson, somewhat of a tournament expert, picked up his third KLM Open title in the past six years with three sub-70 rounds proving enough for a one stroke margin of victory over countryman David Lynn.

The course is flat - as you would expect in Holland - tree-lined and has little in the way of water hazards. It is a typical parkland venue with similarities to the likes of Wentworth. The majority of the danger comes from tree-lined fairways that will benefit straight hitters. Those with best driving accuracy are often in the top 10 at the end of the week.

The course is currently a little drier than to last year but the the rough is still fairly penal so accuracy is the most important factor for me. The course is short with 2 par 5s under 500 yards. The greens are running fast according to Joost Luiten who said "Last year was obviously very wet. This week it's still nice weather and  the track is a bit shorter, you get more roll on the ball. The greens are a lot harder and even faster. If there is a bit of wind the greens may dry some more which will make conditions difficult."

In past years those that won at Hilversumsche have come into the tournament in good form, apart from Gonzo:

Dyson – top 15s in last 2, already won – having good season

Kaymer – just won PGA, great season

Gonzo - Poor form coming in

Lafeber – 4th week before, in good form – numerous top 10s in season

Lynn- 6th week before, decent season.

With those factors in mind, my first pick is Richie Ramsay. Obviously, he won comfortably last week so is in great form but also he was a great leader, whereas previously he has not been great with a lead. His game tee to green is perfect for this course ranked 18th in GIR and 14th in driving accuracy. He isn’t ranked too highly in regards to putting stats, but bearing his last two weeks in mind, he isn’t putting too badly! He has also shown some affinity for this course but with the confidence from last week I feel that he could really do well this week.

My second pick may be a little obvious but I definitely feel it is a justified one – Nicolas Colsaerts. Like Ramsay, Nico is ranked highly in GIR and, quite surprisingly, in driving accuracy. This accuracy combined with his length could lead to a demolition of this reasonably short course. Also, with a Ryder Cup pick under his belt Colsaerts will have less pressure on him this week. He was tied for 8th here in 2010 and has played this course a number of times which will always be an advantage.

My next pick is another that fits the aspects needed for this week – Felipe Aguilar – he is in good form, is accurate and likes the course. His 6th place at last weeks Omega European Masters shows he is playing well. In 2010 he finished inside the top 10 here which shows that he likes the course.

My next pick Anders Hansen is coming very nicely into form with recent results of 15th and 9th in his last two events. Anders finished 25th here last year and definitely has the tee to green game to get the job done here, especially as he finds lots of fairways, meaning he can steer clear of the trees around Hilversumche. Anders is also not putting too badly at the moment, which is usually one of his main issues, he is ranked 76th in putts per GIR at the moment which will put him in good stead around this short course. Hansen’s main wins have come at Wentworth, a typical parkland course similar to this weeks.

One of my outsider tips this week is James Morrison. James is in decent form despite his missed cut last week in Switzerland. His two previous events yielded top 25s and one of those was the Open, where he finished tied for 23rd. He is having a relatively quiet season so far but he is playing very well tee to green ranked 68th in GIR and 12th in driving accuracy, he definitely has the game to play well at this short but narrow track. He had a good week here last year when he finished 12th after a final round 64, suggesting he can go low around this course if his putter complies. Morrison also finished 10th at the BMW Championship at Wentworth this year, which is a similar parkland, tree-lined course to Hilversumche.

My final pick is Victor Dubuisson who is one of the best iron players on tour at the moment, ranked 4th in GIR this year. This will be a great asset at Hilversumche where the past four winners have all averaged very highly in greens hit for the week. Victor also finished 12th here last year with three rounds in the 60s and after a recent 15th at Gleneagles and a 21st at a fairly similar Wentworth course this year, I feel he could surprise a few come Sunday.

  Picks:

Richie Ramsay 45/1 Betfred 2 pts e/w

Nicolas Colsaerts 16/1 General 3pts win only

Felipe Aguilar 100/1 Betfred 0.5pts e/w

Anders Hansen 33/1 Boylesports 1.5 pts e/w

James Morrison 125/1 Boylesports 0.5 pts e/w

Victor Dubuisson 80/1 Ladbrokes 1 pt e/w

Total staked: 14pts