This is an admittedly very optimistic electoral map meant to show what it would look like if Johnson/Weld were to do very well in the 2016 presidential election.
This map considers a few points:
Most voters currently dislike both Clinton and Trump.
Here is a list of the most libertarian states. While Johnson would need more than avowed Libertarians to vote for him, these are the states where there is the most existing support.
Mormons, though very conservative and not particularly libertarian, hate Donald Trump. (Hence Utah and Wyoming.) Johnson is already polling at 16% in Utah, with Trump only polling at 29%. An equal number of people answered “Other”, and it is not at all unreasonable to think that some of these will vote for Johnson.
Johnson was governor of New Mexico.
Cruz trounced Trump in Texas, and Texas Republicans harbor a lot of annoyance at Trump at the moment.
Sanders trounced Clinton in Washington in the primaries, getting 73% of the vote. This gives a lot of room for anti-Clinton Democrats to vote Libertarian.
Weld was governor of Massachusetts. (Though that one, I admit, is pretty unlikely.)
All other states are determined based on current polls, without factoring in Gary Johnson or Jill Stein as spoilers.
If Johnson were to do so well in these states, there is also a possibility that he might carry some swing states as well, such as Florida or Illinois, both currently going to Clinton.
Note that this map has no one reaching 270 electoral votes, which means that there is not an outright winner, with the final decision to be made either by reassignment of votes within the Electoral College or a vote by Congress.











