In a famous thought experiment posed by physicist Erwin Schrödinger, the life-or-death fate of a cat in a box is determined by the random radioactive decay of a particle. Schrödinger argued that the rules of quantum mechanics implied that as the cat awaited its fate, it was simultaneously alive and dead (i.e., in superposition) until the moment the random radioactive decay occurred, at which time the catâs fate became fixedâit was either alive or dead, but not both.
Friday, Trump and Iran operationalized the âSchrödingerâs Catâ thought experiment using the Strait of Hormuz instead of a cat in a box. Early Friday, Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz was open but that the US blockade against Iran would continue, while Iran said the Strait is open but will remain closed so long as the Trump blockade remains in effect. To further complicate matters, Iran said that when the Strait opens, permission to pass through the Strait must be granted by Iranâs Revolutionary Guard.
If the above paragraph makes your head hurt, then you understand the situation perfectlyâbecause it makes no sense. Indeed, that was the point of Schrödingerâs thought experiment; he was mocking the seemingly nonsensical idea of a cat being simultaneously dead and alive. That is exactly where we are with the Strait of Hormuz: It is both open and closed, blockaded by the US for now, with future transit subject to the whim of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
We are in this state of quantum indeterminacy because Trump is making announcements that do not appear to be connected to reality. In other words, Trump is lying. He has every incentive to pretend that the conflict with Iran is over. Nearly every announcement Trump made on Friday was quickly contradicted or denied by Iran. See, e.g., Jerusalem Post, Iran denies claim that US will retrieve enriched uranium.
As reported in the Jerusalem Post, the Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf posted a statement on Twitter accusing Trump of making multiple false claims:
âThe President of the United States made seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false,â Ghalibaf wrote. âThey did not win the war with these lies, and they will certainly not get anywhere in negotiations either.â
Ghalibaf urged all to âread the real and accurate news of the negotiations in the recent interview of the Foreign Ministry spokesman,â in which a Foreign Ministry spokesman claimed that Iran will not transfer its enriched uranium anywhere, contrary to earlier Trump claims that Iran had agreed to do so.
Iran and the US appear to be negotiating a three-page term sheet that includes the release of $20 billion in frozen Iranian assets. Axios has published a detailed outline of the term sheet, although both Iran and Trump have denied reporting on the purported terms. See Axios, U.S. considers $20 billion Iran cash-for-uranium deal.
The Axios article provides a good summary of the state of play in a rapidly evolving situation. My recommendation is to wait until the US and Iran make a joint announcement before trying to parse the terms. Until then, much of the reporting is market manipulation disguised as leaks from âadministration officials.â See Reuters, Traders place $760 million bet on falling oil ahead of Hormuz announcement.
Investors placed a bet worth about $760 million on a falling oil price around 20 minutes before Iranâs foreign minister announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was open, another sizeable wager on the worldâs most traded commodity ahead of major announcements in the course of the Middle East war.
But whatever the outcome, it does not appear that Trump will be able to replicate the advantageous terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiated by President Obama. And Iranâs Revolutionary Guard will regulate traffic through the Strait of Hormuzâan unimaginable situation before Trumpâs ill-advised and unconstitutional decision to start a war against Iran without consulting Congress or the American people.
We should hope that peace negotiations succeed quickly. But we should not forget that the war was a debacle that cost thousands of lives and billions of dollars, alienated US allies, increased prices in the US, and shifted the balance of power in the Middle East toward Iran, which will retain its stockpile of enriched uranium.
Trump is in the process of surrendering, and no amount of lying can change reality. We must not let Trump and his apologists distort or bury the truth of what happened over the last six weeks. It was an unmitigated disaster, full stop. Trump and all Republicans must be held to account in November.
House fails to extend FISA over warrantless spying on Americans
The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) allows warrantless searches of communications by foreign nationals. But if those foreign nationals are communicating with Americans, the net effect is that US intelligence agencies can spy on Americans without obtaining a warrant. That loophole caused House Republicans to revolt against Speaker Mike Johnson as he attempted to extend FISA, which was set to expire on April 20. See The Guardian, US Congress passes 10-day extension of surveillance law amid Republican infighting.
As explained by The Guardian,
Section 702, first enacted in 2008, allows national security agencies to collect and review texts and emails sent to and from foreigners living outside the US without a warrant. If Americans are talking to a non-US target living abroad, their communications can get swept up, too. [¶]
A rare coalition of progressive Democrats and hardline Republicans had joined forces against an unchanged extension. One of their biggest demands â echoed by privacy advocates â is a warrant requirement for Americansâ communications âincidentallyâ collected under Fisa.
When Mike Johnson could not obtain the votes for a âcleanâ extension of FISA (even with support from four Democratic cross-overs), Congress passed a ten-day temporary extension.
Notably, Trump was haranguing Republicans on social media to pass a permanent, unqualified extension. The fact that Trump (and Johnson) could not bully the GOP caucus into passing the extension is a sign of Trumpâs increasing weakness. We can see the futureâjust around the corner. We can take nothing for granted, but we are poised to stop Trumpâs rubber-stamp Congress.
A damning article about FBI Director Kash Patel
Sarah Fitzpatrick has published a feature article in The Atlantic that paints a sordid picture of Kash Patelâs leadership of the FBI. See The Atlantic, The FBI Director Is MIA | Kash Patel has alarmed colleagues with episodes of excessive drinking and unexplained absences. (Gift article, accessible to all.)
The reporting in the article is truly shocking. Per The Atlantic,
On multiple occasions in the past year, members of his security detail had difficulty waking Patel because he was seemingly intoxicated, according to information supplied to Justice Department and White House officials. A request for âbreaching equipmentâânormally used by SWAT and hostage-rescue teams to quickly gain entry into buildingsâwas made last year because Patel had been unreachable behind locked doors, according to multiple people familiar with the request.
The above snippet is the tip of the iceberg. But for all of Kash Patelâs dereliction of duty and bizarre behavior, he remains a Trump favorite because Patel is willing to do Trumpâs dirty work without question. In Trump second term, he scraped the bottom of the barrel to recruit cabinet members who would do his biddingâno matter how unlawful or depraved.
Speaking of cabinet members willing to do Trumpâs bidding, read on!
Florida prosecutor forced off case investigating former CIA Director John Brennan
Trumpâs DOJ has commenced a criminal investigation in the Southern District of Florida that is seeking retribution against those who participated in the 2016-2018 investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. One of the lawyers assigned to the investigation of former CIA Director John Brennan has either quit the investigation or been forced off the team because she reportedly had significant reservations about the investigation. See ABC News, Top prosecutor in Florida removed from probe into ex-CIA Director John Brennan: Sources.
The investigation miraculously ended up being run before a grand jury in the Southern District of Florida, in the district where Judge Aileen Cannon presides. Even more suspicious, one of the new prosecutors working on the investigation into Brennan is a former Aileen Cannon law clerk!
There will be no evidence that John Brennan committed any wrongdoing, but Judge Cannon will force any indictment to trial despite the absence of evidence. Brennan will be acquitted by a juryâand Judge Cannon and her former law clerk should be held to account at the earliest possible moment.
There are many reasons Trump wants to end his illegal war against Iran. But one reason is that Americans have voiced their opposition through mass protests, small roadside gatherings, bridge brigades, calls to congressional representatives, and election results. Even if Trump is insulated from reports and images of the protests, his handlers and advisers follow them closely.
Did your contribution make a difference? Absolutely! By engaging in public protest, you inspired others to speak out.
