#fallisonitsway

9/12/2014.

Well the cold front that was predicted to have moved through already, has stalled out and become a stationary front.  This will still bring rain and storms to our area and here is why: 

For this forecast, I compared the RAP and GFS models from the current run, 15Z Friday through 9Z Saturday.  That is 10am today through 4am Saturday.  

Looking at the 250 mb chart, winds are about 20 knots coming from the SE and will continue all day today.  Tomorrow morning they will be coming from the West at 30 knots.  

Above: RAP 00Z run Saturday (7PM tonight). 250mb Wind Speeds.

The 500mb map shows where the positive vorticity is in the front, but it doesn't seem close enough to Starkville for there to be extreme uplift through dPVA.

Above: GFS 00Z run Saturday (7PM tonight) 500mb Vorticity.

The thickness map shows warm air advection over Starkville causing rising air. 

Above: RAP 22Z run Friday (5PM tonight) 1000-500mb Thickness

This afternoon through tonight, I am forecasting a 30% chance of rain with scattered thunderstorms across the Golden Triangle.  As for tomorrow, I am predicting a 40% chance for rain.  I am forecasting that we will get about 1-1.25 inches of rainfall today and tomorrow.  After this system pushes through, we will be seeing a break from these brutally high summer temperatures, and start seeing a transition into the fall season.  

By Sunday this will be moving out and dying down as it moves NE and out to sea.  But there is already another system forming in Canada right now that will be in our area sometime next week, bringing more rain, and cooler temps!  

Sweater weather, Starbucks, and camping are just around the corner people! Get excited!! :)