Written by Maurice Hamilton
Don’t be fooled by the result of the first race in Australia two weeks ago. With Mercedes scoring another one-two and a Ferrari finishing third, it may seem that nothing has changed since we had the same result in the Etihad Airways Formula One Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at the end of 2015.
But the truth is that neither Mercedes nor Ferrari have a clue who might win this weekend’s Bahrain Grand Prix. We do know that the Ferraris of Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Räikkönen led in Melbourne and could possibly have won it but for a mistake in choosing the wrong tyres later in the race. The winner, Nico Rosberg, said as much when he admitted Ferrari were much stronger this year and Mercedes have a fight on their hands.
“We've stepped up our game once again with a fantastic car,” said Rosberg. “But Ferrari were a real threat all weekend in Melbourne and it's clear that we've got a big battle on our hands, so we have to keep pushing very hard.”
The circuit at Bahrain is very different to Melbourne. With four long straights, overtaking will be much easier that it was in Australia. So, even if a team makes a mistake with strategy this time, there is a better chance of putting it right.
There’s other variables, too. Like Abu Dhabi, the Bahrain Grand Prix starts at dusk with the majority of the race being run under floodlights. Apart from being a magical atmosphere, racing at night also means the track temperature drops throughout the race and this can have a major effect on tyre performance.
The teams will try and take this into account during practice but, being early in the season, lessons continue to be learned. Added to which, each driver has the choice of three different types of Pirelli tyre (as opposed to two in 2015). This means another roll of the dice.
“The new tyre regulations for 2016 proved to be a big success in Melbourne,” says Paul Hembery, Pirelli’s Motorsport Director. “It means there many different strategy options for each driver. Bahrain is a very different type of circuit and there is also a big drop in tyre performance by the fall in temperature as the race goes on. This provides a completely different set of challenges and it’s a matter of seeing who has learned the most from Australia in order to take best advantage of another new situation.”
“Bahrain is a track which always seems to provide entertainment for me,” says Rosberg, who finished on the podium in 2014 and 2015. “I've had some great battles here in the last two years with [team-mate] Lewis [Hamilton] and also the Ferraris, so I'm expecting more of the same this time and very much looking forward to that. It was great to win the first race - but the aim is to come out on top at every step of the way this season, starting this weekend.”
Maurice Hamilton has attended over 500 Grands Prix. An award-winning writer for leading British newspapers and magazines, he is a former commentator for BBC Radio and editor of Autocourse, the authoritative Grand Prix annual. The author of more than 20 books, Maurice contributes regularly to F1 Racing magazine and as F1 editorial consultant to Yas Marina Circuit. Follow Maurice on Twitter: @MauriceHamilton