#essential research

Victorian election: highlights of week two

Electorate-level polls conducted last week by the Essential Research on behalf of the Victorian Trades Hall Council found Labor with solid leads in three key marginal seats. In Bellarine, where a 1.4% Labor margin at the 2010 election has been turned into a 2.5% Liberal margin by the redistribution, Labor was credited with a 55-45 lead on two-party preferred and 41-37 on the primary vote. In…

Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition in NSW

The Australian has published Newspoll’s bi-monthly state voting intention result for New South Wales, where the state election is now less than five months away. The result is very encouraging for Mike Baird, showing his Coalition government’s lead on two-party preferred opening up from 54-46 in July-August to 55-45 in September-October. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 42%,…

BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

With the fortnightly cycles of Newspoll and Morgan coinciding, and other pollsters having gone a bit quiet lately, the polling calendar has fallen into a pattern of on weeks and off weeks. This one was an “off”, with only the regular Essential Research to relieve the monotony. The poll may have recorded a move to Labor on two-party preferred, but there wasn’t much behind it so far as the primary…

Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

GhostWhoVotes relates that Newspoll has come in at 52-48 in favour of Labor, up from 51-49 last time. Primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down one), 35% for Labor (up one) and 14% for the Greens (up an improbable three). Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are back down again after an improvement last week, to 36% approval (down three) and 43% disapproval (up three), while Tony Abbott goes…

BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

Three new polls this week have collectively taken the shine off the Coalition’s recent recovery in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and returned Labor to absolute majority territory on the seat projection. Labor is recorded as gaining six seats, including two in New South Wales and one each in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania. Its primary vote is little changed, but there’s an…