#enthusiasm gap

That article may be overstating things a bit, but James Talarico's victory in the Texas Democratic primary for US Senate was certainly helped by the uproar over attempts to block his appearance on Stephen Colbert's late night show.

Texas State Rep. James Talarico’s appearance on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert is being credited with propelling him to victory in Tuesday’s Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Republican John Cornyn. With 97% of the vote now in, Talarico won with 52.8% of the vote, defeating U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who received 45.9%. The outcome stands in stark contrast to polling conducted shortly before Talarico’s late-night appearance. According to The Texas Politics Project, Crockett led the race with the support of 56% of likely Democratic primary voters, compared with 44% for Talarico.

Talarico had been edging up a little in polls. White House MAGA operatives noticed and likely hinted to FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr to lean on CBS. CBS then told Colbert not to air his segment with Talarico. Colbert complied but then posted the banned segment on YouTube and spoke at length during his monologue about the MAGA/FCC/CBS attempts to censor him.

This drama got an enormous amount of publicity and caused donations to pour into Talarico's campaign. The attempt by Trump and his pals to hinder Talarico blew up in their faces. Talarico became a symbol of anti-MAGA resistance around the same time a Democrat comfortably flipped a Texas State Senate seat in a special election in a ruby red district won by Trump in 2024 by 17 points.

There were certainly other factors. Talarico is a progressive who sometimes uses religious language like the late President Jimmy Carter. His Hispanic heritage helped him with many voters. But it certainly helped being publicly identified as an "Anti-Trump" in a high profile way when The Orange One is tanking in the polls.

The Texas primary turnout should worry Republicans.

^^^ The total number of Democrats who voted in the Texas primary was notably higher than the number of Republicans who voted in the same primary. This hasn't happened in decades in a midterms primary there. And BOTH parties had very high profile races.

Much has been written about the enthusiasm gap. But less attention has been paid to what could be called negative enthusiasm.

The other side will obviously not like your candidate very much. But there is a difference between simply disliking somebody and utterly despising somebody.

Republicans don’t like Joe Biden, but that’s almost mild compared to what Democrats think about Donald Trump.

Trump may try to fire up his declining base by wrapping himself in the Confederate flag or by making racist comments. But when he does those things he fires up his opponents disproportionately more.

It’s a sign of his weakness that Trump is unable to expand his base while the demographic groups which support him grow smaller.

Much has been said about a blue wave during these midterms. A blue wave is certainly possible in the House of Representatives but might be all Democrats could hope for during this election cycle.

The prospect of a blue wave has been the focus of much of the discussion surrounding the 2018 midterms. It’s a possibility because there have been encouraging signs for Democrats since the latter half of 2017.

The Democratic Party has a steep hill to climb in these midterms, but as I’ve said before, the party received a boost near the end of 2017 in the form of Republican retirements and…

“We Vote For Survival”: You’re Damn Right Electability Matters To Black Voters

Coming off his near-upset in the Iowa caucus and his massive win in New Hampshire, polls (PDF) are showing that more voters nationally are “feeling the Bern,” with Bernie Sanders now appearing to have the momentum against Hillary Clinton. These polls seem to confirm two theories.

First, the enthusiasm gap that many of us have long written about and that Hillary Clinton struggles with is very real.

As attention shifts to the 2012 cycle, the Republican advantage seems to have largely disappeared. In fact, a new report from Public Policy Polling suggests it's Democrats who enjoy the enthusiasm edge.

...Democrats are now more excited about voting this fall than Republicans are, reversing the enthusiasm gap that plagued the party in 2010.

11/1/2010

by Kirsten B.

At mid-morning Monday, the Democrats sounded prematurely conquered. 

Predictions of ambivalence and apathy among the besieged incumbent party rang from every corner of the staging headquarters  of the Obama-backed Organizing for America in Brookline Village: the muffled whipping of the faded maroon awning left by Heads Up Salon—which closed in 2009 under Obama’s watch, the light rattling of askew “Barney!” signs against walls of peeling latex paint, the shuffle of unused blue-hued pamphlets being stacked high on uneven groupings of miscellaneous card tables, and the jarring echo of every keystroke made on the laptop of the Get Out the Vote (GOTV) campaign’s director.

But by night, the reverberations of dozens of pairs of Nikes and Asics scuffing the wood-planked floors and the hasty ripping of corrugated cardboard boxes that produced more of the dwindling blue “Vote TODAY!” door knockers easily drowned the noises of indifference.  The rhythmic pounding of the entrance door released steady sets of three or four volunteers whose standard-issue clipboards were stacked, ready to go canvass for the candidates whose stickers they wore prominently on their thick coats.