#dunning_kruger_effect

6 September 2025

Okay, I’m stuck. No idea what to talk about this morning. I read somewhere that the trick is to just start writing—then the good, bad, and questionable juices will flow, and away we go. Or not.

Throughout the day, thoughts come to me that would make decent primers for discussion, if I’d just write them down. But I usually don’t. So here I sit, trying to force my brain to think on command.

Here’s Charlie, right on cue, reminding me it’s mealtime—or at least three minutes away. That’s always good for a short paragraph. I intend to stand and head that way on the minute. I need to top off my coffee anyway. I’ll do it then.

I often use an analogy to describe the different thought capabilities of people: we’re not all issued the same tool kit. Whether by birth or experience, people’s ability to understand things varies. It’s remarkable if you’re self-aware enough to notice. I’ve known people who pick up on things much faster than I do, with a capacity for recall that boggles the mind. And then there are those who fail to recognize the obvious—the ones who make you think (hopefully not out loud), “Wow.”

The thing is, stupid people don’t know they’re stupid. There’s a missing layer of self-awareness. Scientifically, it’s called the Dunning–Kruger Effect—a “psychological bias where people with low ability or knowledge in a domain overestimate their competence. They lack the metacognitive skill to recognize their own limitations, which leads to inflated self-assessment.” — Microsoft Copilot

As David Dunning and Justin Kruger put it:

“People tend to hold overly favorable views of their abilities in many social and intellectual domains.” (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1999)

And Bertrand Russell, with his usual precision: