#decisionframework

There’s a moment many investors recognize, even if they rarely describe it out loud.

You enter a position feeling confident. The story makes sense. The narrative is everywhere. Then the market gets noisy, uncertainty rises, and your mind starts negotiating with itself.

“Maybe I should hold a bit longer.” “Maybe I should add to lower my average.” “Maybe I should wait until it comes back.”

Most people assume this is a knowledge problem. It’s not. It’s a structure problem.

A strong idea without an exit trigger doesn’t become “long-term.” It becomes unclear. And unclear decisions invite emotional decisions.

What is an Exit Trigger?

An exit trigger is a specific condition that tells you the original thesis is no longer valid. It is not a price prediction. It is not a promise. It is a boundary that protects your discipline when the environment changes.

Think of it as a seatbelt. You don’t wear it because you expect a crash. You wear it because you understand uncertainty exists.

A simple template you can reuse

Before you enter any position, write four lines:

Catalyst: What specific change is driving the idea? Evidence: What must remain true for the thesis to hold? Risks: What would break the thesis? Exit Trigger: What single signal would tell me to reduce or exit?

That last line is the one most people skip. And it’s the line that turns a “story” into a plan.

Why this helps (even if you never trade often)

When you write an exit trigger, you stop outsourcing decisions to fear or social media opinions. You also reduce the urge to “do something” during volatility, because the rule is already written.

This is not about being pessimistic. It’s about being prepared.

A small practice for tonight

Pick one idea you’ve been thinking about (you don’t need to name it). Write only the exit trigger line. One sentence.