#decision2020

The Trump Depression: The Economy Does Better Under the Democrats

One of the rare occasions when DJT has told the truth. 

Trump and his Republican Party mouthpieces and right wing disinformation outlets continue to state that Trump inherited “a mess”, a “broken economy”. That of course is far from the truth. You can’t believe anything they say, you can’t trust them, they intentionally and maliciously deceive the public.

Donald Trump was just bragging about the 33% GDP increase. NOT SO FAST!

That is still 10% below the Q1 level after the 31.4% drop in Q2. And even farther below the Q4 2019 level. The reason for the 33% gain from a 31.4% loss is due to the stimulus pumped into the economy from the Cares Act that Nancy Pelosi worked so hard on getting. Because Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) left the current stimulus bills passed by the House floundering, the Q4 figures aren't going to be so rosy.In September, the unemployment rate declined by 0.5 percentage point to 7.9 percent, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 1.0 million to 12.6 million In September, the number of permanent job losers increased by 345,000 to 3.8 million

On October 26, 2020 The Brookings Institution, Nonresident Senior Fellow for Economic Studies, Jay Shambaugh published a piece giving us a sneak-peek at what the Trump administration would be touting when the 3rd quarter GDP figures came out. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/10/26/dont-let-flashy-3rd-quarter-gdp-growth-fool-you-the-economy-is-still-in-a-big-hole/

And sure enough, Director of National Economic Council Larry Kudlow went on the morning news networks to tout the record breaking GDP growth, and blowing the same smoke he did in July.

October 29, 2020 | US GDP surged a record 33% in the 3rd quarter as the economy reopened, roughly double the next-biggest jump. Great news right? Well, not so fast. "Still, the 33% increase doesn't offset the prior quarter's decline. Experts have said a full recovery may take years, as the pace of GDP growth is set to moderate significantly in the last three months of 2020." https://www.businessinsider.com/us-q3-gdp-record-growth-economic-reopening-recession-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-10

Just like the Unemployment rates and the Stock Market trends were inherited by Trump from Obama, so was the GDP.

[image 12-2007 to current]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=xbg8

[page] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=xbfP

In September, the unemployment rate declined by 0.5 percentage point to 7.9 percent, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 1.0 million to 12.6 million In September, the number of permanent job losers increased by 345,000 to 3.8 million

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Trump has repeatedly pointed to the nation's steady economic health as the strongest indicator of his success, calling it "terrific" and "the greatest in the history of the country." January. A closer look at the Trump economy reveals a mixed picture.

Here are some historic charts showing the Unemployment Rate historical data, Non-farm payroll job growth 2001-2019 and S&P, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones Industrial Average historical performance data.

Labor Force Statistics-Unemployment rates 2008-2020

As you can clearly see, the Unemployment rates have steadily dropped since 2010.

President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden took the U.S. out of what was dubbed the “Great Recession”; the biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930′s.

Attribution NASDAQ by President-2020-08-26-macrotrends

https://www.macrotrends.net/1320/nasdaq-historical-chart

S&P 500 Performance by President

Attribution sp500-performance-by-president-from-election-date-2020-08-26-macrotrends

https://www.macrotrends.net/2614/sp500-performance-by-president-from-election-date

Dow Jones DJIA by President-2020-08-26-macrotrends

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

Non-farm payroll job growth 2001-2019 via Business Insider

Attribution: https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/5e271d1f62fa8152267feb07-1136-852.png

Average Monthly Job Growth 2006-2019

You can clearly see that in the last three years of the Obama/Biden administration there was greater job growth than Trump’s first 3 years.

Attribute from Washington post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/SBZZLZVYYFDMFFU57MKVSXDYEM.jpg&w=530

There is no blinder a man as one who cannot see what is right in front of him with his eyes wide open. | Yendor

Trump inherited a gradually declining unemployment rate. It had nothing to do with him, it was due to industry and the private sector. It has been infrastructure week since Feb or March of 2017, and still nothing except what had been already planned and budgeted for years before he got into office. The same thing with the coal jobs he claims to have created. Coal leases were issued while Obama was in office. And since Trump's claim for all those coal mining jobs more than 3x that have been lost. The same thing with Carrier. He claims to have saved their jobs and after he was elected, by a minority of votes, many went to Mexico anyway. The one thing that he did that had a temporary fix was put the tariffs on imported steel from China (which he used in his projects). But he did it in a political stunt manner and then started an illegal trade war with the rest of the world. Farmers lost buyers to other countries and many of them simply went broke and suicides were up. Prices for imported parts used in manufacturing resulted in dramatic price increases in consumer goods. He told you that Mexico and China were paying for those tariffs, some of you believed him, while you were paying for the increases.

The main things he is extremely successful at is lying, deceiving and conning - He plays his marks well.

~~ additions

March Trumpslump in the stock market https://thehill.com/policy/488231-dow-erases-all-gains-under-trump

Iron Range mayors are making a mistake: More steelworkers went back to work under Obama https://www.minnpost.com/community-voices/2020/09/iron-range-mayors-are-making-a-mistake-more-steelworkers-went-back-to-work-under-obama/

2016 - Barack Obama announces increased steel trade enforcement https://www.twincities.com/2016/02/25/barack-obama-announces-increased-steel-trade-enforcement/

2014- Troubled mining industry now resurgent in Midwest https://www.mprnews.org/story/2014/06/10/midwest-mining

January 2020 The Trump tax cuts in action: Socialism for the rich https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/01/02/trump-tax-cuts-action-socialism-rich/

What Trump’s new executive order actually means for mining in Minnesota. | In the short term, not much. https://www.minnpost.com/national/2020/10/what-trumps-new-executive-order-actually-means-for-mining-in-minnesota/

US Trade Deficit With China and Why It's So High The Real Reason American Jobs Are Going to China https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-china-trade-deficit-causes-effects-and-solutions-3306277

US trade deficit up to $67.1 billion in August, 14-year high. Oct. 6, 2020 https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-global-trade-north-america-china-united-states-c6d5a4d935d8d3bca966d2395deee68d

Trump's favorite trade scorecard posts its worst figure since 2006 as the election looms https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-trade-deficit-grows-august-imports-exports-election-trump-tariffs-2020-10-1029653342

More pain than gain: How the US-China trade war hurt America https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/08/07/more-pain-than-gain-how-the-us-china-trade-war-hurt-america/

Laid-Off Steelworkers In Michigan Say Trump Didn't Keep Business Promises https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPqSstVlvKM

Former Rouge Steel mill closing some operations, throwing more than 200 out of work https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2020/05/05/cleveland-cliffs-closing-operations-ak-steel-dearborn-works-plant/3086633001/

US Steel closing mill, laying off 1,500 Detroit workers https://thehill.com/policy/finance/475529-us-steel-closing-mill-laying-off-1500-detroit-workers

Louisiana steel mill closing, laying off 376 employees https://apnews.com/f39dd6253fc24a2abeac11ed0874aa26

As a Kentucky mill shutters, steelworkers see the limits of Trump’s intervention https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/as-a-kentucky-mill-shutters-steelworkers-see-the-limits-of-trumps-intervention/2019/10/25/a27d3bb2-f02f-11e9-89eb-ec56cd414732_story.html

The Last Shift: What Really Happened To Those Carrier Jobs Trump Saved https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/a20066498/carrier-factory-donald-trump-jobs/

'He pulled the wool over our eyes': workers blame Trump for moving jobs overseas https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jul/10/trump-workers-jobs-overseas-factories

Three Years Ago, Trump Broke His Promises To Carrier Employees — He’s Failed Workers Ever Since. July 2020 https://democrats.org/news/three-years-ago-trump-broke-his-promises-to-carrier-employees-hes-failed-workers-ever-since/

Trump’s Numbers July 2020 Update https://www.factcheck.org/2020/07/trumps-numbers-july-2020-update/?platform=hootsuite

US bankruptcies are on track to hit a 10-year high as the coronavirus pandemic continues to slam businesses https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-bankruptcies-track-hit-decade-year-high-coronavirus-crisis-businesses-2020-8-1029492702

Pre-pandemic | U.S. Farm Bankruptcies Reach Eight-Year High https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/02/10/us-farm-bankruptcies-reach-eight-year-high-infographic/#1831ebb37de0

Amid Trump Tariffs, Farm Bankruptcies And Suicides Rise https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2019/08/30/amid-trump-tariffs-farm-bankruptcies-and-suicides-rise/#1a746b282bc8