#cpih

Today is one of those days where the Bank of England gets to mark its own homework. Indeed a group of people no-one has heard of and may not even be famous in their own families opine about the UK in the Financial Stability Report. This has a regular theme. However, UK banks are resilient and they are strong enough to continue supporting households and businesses through a period of higher…

Today is UK Labour Market day and there is a tendency to over analyse them I think. Let me give you an example from earlier this year. This was a major report from the Resolution Foundation from February. Economic inactivity among all adults has risen by 830,000 since the start of the pandemic, with more than three-quarters (630,000, or 76 per cent) of this rise being among people aged 50 and…

As 2023 has progressed we have got used to the news on the UK economy being better than expected. Of course that was partly because places like the Bank of England chose to wrap themselves in a coat of doom and gloom. But we have so far navigated stormy seas and made a little if not much progress. This morning has brought more of a troubling theme from inflation. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI)…

Today was always going to be a bit of a benchmark day for the UK as we arrived at what we might call “domestic energy day” for UK inflation. I pointed this out on Twitter last night. At 7am we get the latest UK inflation numbers. The annual rates will fall heavily due to the domestic energy price rises. On their own they should give us numbers of this order. CPI 8.7% RPI 11.3% So that will give…

UK Inflation surges again further tightening the cost of living crisis

I would say that the first thought this morning was about the UK inflation rate. But as a Londoner I have to confess it was more along the lines of this being the wettest drought in history! We can apply that to the Bank of England where the various Phds had not only to make sure that their umbrellas meant that not a drop fell on the Governor before explaining this at the morning meeting. The…

UK inflation surges to over 7% in November

This morning some chickens have come home to roost in the UK. Something that I have warning about since the Bank of England started to pump up the money supply is now really hitting both workers and consumers. I warned about the consequences back on the 29th of May last year. As well as some hoped for economic growth there is a clear and present danger which is inflation. We seem likely to be…