When the Grid Hesitates: India’s Real-Time Power Market Exposes Hidden Frictions
Published originally on EnergyLineIndia.com | Analysis by [ Anjali Rathore]
The Indian power system’s performance on November 4, 2025, offered a striking view of how flexibility, not capacity, is now the defining currency in electricity markets. From coal ramp inertia to pumped-storage agility and hidden transmission stress, every data point told the same story — the grid is learning to price speed.
🏭 1. Coal’s Slow Ramp Created a ₹1.22/kWh Price Gap
Coal output dropped 4.6 GW between 15:00 and 17:00 IST while RTM prices shot up from ₹4.08 to ₹5.30/kWh. Many “reserve shutdown” units never came online in time. Result: ₹1.22/kWh of missed value — around ₹5 crore in lost margin. ➡️ Flexibility, not fuel stock, now drives revenue for thermal plants.
💧 2. Pumped-Storage Saved the Evening—But Cut Price Premiums
From 18:15 to 20:00 IST, PSP discharge rose to 1,450 MW, pulling frequency from 49.84 to 49.97 Hz. That same action flattened the DAM–HPDAM premium from ₹1.10 to ₹0.42/kWh. ➡️ PSPs are stabilising frequency—but their success erodes price upside.
⚙️ 3. Northern Grid Under Stress, Even Without ATC Flags
The Delhi–Raipur phase angle doubled from 2.1° → 4.4°, yet no congestion alerts appeared. Hidden loop flows revealed real stress invisible to control-room dashboards. ➡️ Grid security needs dynamic, phasor-based visibility—not static limits.
🔌 4. “Zero Shortage” That Wasn’t
Gujarat and Maharashtra both reported zero MU shortages—but imported 1.8 MU and 2.2 MU respectively from exchanges. ➡️ Market buys covered deficits, making reliability appear healthier than it was.
🌀 5. Paying for Caution: Ancillary Awards at ₹6.42 Crore
Even with frequency steady within ±0.03 Hz, operators bought 3,218 MWh of up-regulation. ➡️ The grid paid for risk insurance, not actual imbalance—a hidden efficiency cost.
🌊 6. Hydro Held Back Despite Full Reservoirs
Eastern reservoirs were 84% full, but utilisation only 68%. Generation was withheld to chase later-hour premiums, missing ₹0.6 crore in potential gains. ➡️ Hydro flexibility is an underused—and undervalued—asset.
🌅 7. Morning Frequency Surge from Over-Scheduling
Between 05:00 and 07:00 IST, frequency stayed above 50.10 Hz for most of the time. Over-generation from must-run thermal and early hydro created surplus energy. ➡️ Granular 5-minute scheduling and negative reserves could monetise this oversupply.
💹 8. PXIL–RTM Spread Shrinks to 3-Month Low
PXIL’s DAM–RTM spread narrowed to just ₹0.18/kWh, down from ₹0.52 a week earlier. ➡️ Exchanges are converging—making hedging easier but squeezing trader margins.
⚡ The Bigger Picture
India’s November 4 data show that capacity no longer equals capability. From coal inertia to PSP agility, from invisible loop flows to algorithmic conservatism, the market is redefining value around responsiveness and risk. Real-time co-optimisation, if done right, could make flexibility the most tradable commodity on the grid.
