INDY Primer: What That Class-Size Bill Is Really All About [2018/02/09]
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1. WHAT THE CLASS-SIZE BILL IS REALLY ALL ABOUT.
THE GIST: The above-the-fold headline in today’s N&O might as well be an in-kind donation to the Republican Party. Indeed, it’s exactly what Republicans in the General Assembly want people to see: them giving school districts a break from the onerous K–3 class-size rules that so riled local leaders all over the state, while increasing funds for schools. Never mind that they were fixing their own error: the problem with the class-size rules wasn’t the rules themselves — everyone wants smaller class sizes — but rather the fact that it was an underfunded mandate issued by Jones Street that would put the squeeze to school administrators. In essence, Republicans could brag about reducing class sizes while forcing local taxpayers to eat most of the bill or gut art and music programs, or both. Again, never mind that. The bigger problem with that headline — and, of course, it’s difficult to capture all the nuances of a complex story in a couple of words, believe me — is that it ignores what that bill is really all about: the ongoing power struggle between the legislature and Governor Cooper.
First, we’ll tackle the class-size element, which the N&O’s story does adequately enough: “State Republican legislative leaders said they will phase in the smaller class sizes in kindergarten through third grade over the next four years instead of lowering them at once this fall. As part of the delay, lawmakers will include $61 million a year to help school districts pay for art, music and physical education teachers. The deal comes after school officials around the state said they didn’t have the thousands of extra classrooms needed and might have to fire arts and PE teachers to help come up with the money to hire additional K-3 teachers.”
All that’s fine — better than fine, in fact. But, with the General Assembly being the General Assembly, there’s a catch. House Bill 90, as I wrote yesterday [INDY], “does a lot more than address class sizes. There are also two provisions Governor Cooper and legislative Democrats are almost certain to oppose — which the Republicans can then use as a political cudgel, accusing them of being anti-education.”
The first essentially reclaims the $58 million Cooper received from the Atlantic Coast Pipeline developers for a mitigation fund at the same time his Department of Environmental Quality approved the deal and reroutes it to schools within the ACP’s path. This is a subplot in a larger narrative Republicans are trying to cook up that Cooper is corrupt. I’ll get to that below.
The second is that it once again — for the third time — rejiggers the State Board of Elections and Ethics Enforcement, again making it a bipartisan board but now with an unaffiliated tie-breaker. Twice, state courts have struck down GOP efforts to strip Cooper of control of the board — as the party that holds the Executive Mansion traditionally does — and twice, Republicans have responded by tweaking their legislation and putting it back in play. This time is particularly pernicious: they know Cooper’s going to veto the bill, so they’ll get to run ads trashing him for opposing class sizes.
WHAT IT MEANS: Republicans, who control supermajorities in both chambers and thus don’t have to consult Democrats on anything, are essentially daring them to vote no on a bill that will almost assuredly become law, thus setting up the GOP to be a pro-education party in the coming legislative elections, in which both parties will focus their efforts on suburban areas where voters care very much about these things. And while they’re at it, they’re trying to gin up a Cooper scandal, because he’s far more popular than they are (or than Pat McCrory ever was).
The scandal works like this: Cooper’s mitigation fund, which he would control, is a bribe and/or slush fund. Compounding things is that Cooper’s new legislative affairs director lobbied for one of the companies involved in the ACP, which isn’t a good luck for the governor. So yesterday, before Phil Berger and Tim Moore introduced legislation that would strip Cooper of his control of the mitigation fund, Republican lawmakers spent Thursday grilling that legislative affairs director, Lee Lilley, about the ethics and legality of the fund. It was very much an orchestrated hit.
From the N&O: “Lee Lilley, Cooper’s legislative affairs director as of Jan. 31, spent nearly an hour before a joint appropriations committee, deflecting a barrage of questions about the ethics and legality of the fund, the terms of which give Cooper spending control. Lilley agreed to respond to written questions at a later time. Democrats fumed over Lilley’s harsh treatment, saying he was invited to introduce himself to lawmakers and lured into a trap. ‘In 10 years I’ve never seen anything as shameful as what has happened today,’ said Rep. Darren Jackson of Wake County.”
“Lilley, 34, came under fire because of his past employment with lobbying powerhouse McGuireWoods Consulting. One of his clients was Richmond-based Dominion Resources, the holding company for Dominion Energy. Dominion is one of the lead partners on the 600-mile interstate pipeline, along with Charlotte-based Duke Energy. Republican legislators demanded information from Lilley about the environmental mitigation fund and his role in the negotiations for it. In the few questions Lilley answered Thursday, he said he lobbied for Dominion on federal issues before federal agencies. He claimed limited familiarity with the contested fund, which is broadly designated for investment in renewable energy, environmental remediation and on economic development. Legislators were skeptical.”
“Critics on both sides have said the fund appears like a fee paid by Atlantic Coast Pipeline in exchange for a permit. Republicans are further irate that Cooper would control the funds, which they said would be politically motivated and awarded to environmental organizations that form Cooper’s political base.”
The bottom line: The Republicans have a point. While a developer-paid mitigation fund for a project as potentially dangerous as the ACP isn’t the worst idea in the world, the optics do smack of a bribe, or at least a payment for service, and Cooper’s insistence that the payment was completely voluntary and unconnected to the DEQ’s approval strains credulity. Still, whether that constitutes the “appearance of evil,” as state Representative Dean Arp hyperventilated yesterday, depends on your perspective. Me? I think it’s generally good and reasonable policy to require rich corporations running risky pipelines through people’s backyards to pay to offset any damage that occurs in the process — and I hardly think it’s evil to require that before granting permits. But, for a smart pol, Cooper played his hand incredibly badly, and the Republicans may well succeed in giving him a black eye for it.
2. OTHER LOCAL HEADLINES.
The latest redistricting developments are leaving some candidates scrambling as filing approaches Monday. [N&O]
Charges were dismissed against Dwayne Dixon, a member of Redneck Revolt who brought an assault rifle to an anti-Klan demonstration last August, after his attorney argued that the law in question violated Dixon’s First and Second Amendment Rights. [DHS via N&O]
Thirty-four people have died of flu-related complications in North Carolina this past week. [N&O]
Longtime Durham state rep and civil rights leader Mickey Michaux will not seek reelection to the General Assembly. [N&O]
UNC overcame a four-point halftime deficit to beat Duke 82–78 at the Dean Dome. [WRAL]
3. THE BRIEF, DUMB GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IS OVER. WHAT COMES NEXT?
THE GIST: It was, in the words of Politico’s headline writer, “The Dumbest Shutdown Ever.” On Thursday night, Senator Rand Paul — who has suddenly found religion on the deficit again, after voting in December for a trillion-dollar, deficit-funded tax cut — delayed a roll call vote to pass a budget resolution until after the midnight deadline. Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi rallied House Democrats against the measure — and the Republicans needed their help after the Freedom Caucus, which similarly found that old-time deficit-hating religion after voting for tax cuts, defected — decrying the lack of protection for Dreamers.
“But ultimately 73 Democrats defied Pelosi and helped Republicans reopen the federal government without a single concession on immigration, the wedge issue in the face-off.”
The government reopened a few minutes ago, after Trump signed the bill.
Quote of the day (from Politico): “‘When Rand Paul pulls a stunt like this, it easy to understand why it's difficult to be Rand Paul's next door neighbor,’ said [Pennsylvania Republican Congressman Charlie] Dent, referring to the neighbor who assaulted Paul last year, breaking several of his ribs and sending him to the hospital.”
WHAT THE AGREEMENT DOES: On its own terms, the budget deal gave Democrats a lot of what they want, including a lot of things included in their “Better Deal” proposal.
From WaPo: “In negotiations, Democrats checked off several items in the Better Deal, a compendium of policies backed by Democrats in the past and brainstormed in meetings last spring and summer. The new items include $5.8 billion for the Child Care Development Block Grant program; $20 billion in infrastructure spending, including rural broadband funds, with no corresponding cuts; and a special joint committee on fulfilling pension obligations, with the results to be voted on by the end of the year.”
Also WaPo: “The U.S. government will spend about $500 billion more over the next two years, the largest increase in federal spending since the stimulus during the Great Recession. … More than 60 percent of the extra funding would go toward military spending, a major Republican priority. The rest would mainly go to disaster relief, health care and other domestic priorities favored by Democrats.”
The bill funds the government for six weeks, until March 23, giving lawmakers time to craft full appropriations bills. It waives the debt ceiling until March 2019. It allows Congress to spend $500 billion more, mostly from the deficit (more on that in a second). Military spending will increase 10 percent, up to $716 billion in 2019. It boosts domestic funding by 10 percent, to $591 billion this year. (Notice here that we spend much more money on the military than on all domestic items combined.) It allocates $6 billion to fight the opioid crisis. It funds community health center for two years, extends CHIP for four years, and staves off coming cuts to Medicare and Medicaid. It funds abstinence education. It includes $90 billion for disaster relief, of which $16 billion will go to Puerto Rico — far short of the $94 billion the Puerto Rican government says it needs. And it retroactively extends tax cuts to 2017 for green-energy projects, rum producers in Puerto Rico, film-production companies, and people will be allowed to deduct private mortgage insurance and mortgage debt relief.
WHAT IT MEANS: The first problem with this deal, as I mentioned yesterday, is that Dreamers are still left in limbo, as Democrats forfeited their best leverage to force President Trump and Republicans to extend DACA. But just as important is this bill sets up for the coming year.
NYT: “The two-year budget agreement reached by Senate leaders on Wednesday would contribute hundreds of billions of dollars to federal deficits. … According to a preliminary analysis of the deal, federal deficits would surpass $1 trillion by 2019, a level not seen since the recession and its aftermath. Deficits would grow even more if the policies in the deal were extended beyond 2019. Lawmakers have also promised that individual tax cuts passed in December that are set to expire after 10 years will be extended, which would put even more pressure on the federal debt.”
The deficit is exploding in relative boom times, thanks to an economic stimulus in the form of tax cuts and a congressional spending spree, funneling even more hundreds of billions of dollars to a military that already has a bigger budget than its seven closest competitors combined [World Economic Forum]. But Republicans, especially House Speaker Paul Ryan, have spent the last decade scolding Democrats about deficit spending. So how do they square this deal and the tax-cut package with their supposed deficit hawkishness? Simple. Gut Social Security and Medicare.
From the Washington Times: “House Speaker Paul D. Ryan said Thursday that the budget deal he’s asking members to vote for will rebuild a military hollowed from years of spending restraints, and said shortchanging troops isn’t the answer to an exploding debt. ‘The military is not the reason we’ve got fiscal problems. It is entitlements,’ Mr. Ryan said, blaming the growth of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security for a deficit that’s likely to top $1 trillion a year for the foreseeable future. Mr. Ryan said he plans to take on those programs — though Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell and President Trump have already ruled that out.”
It does seem unlikely that Trump would go after Social Security and Medicare, given how politically fraught the issue is even for popular politicians (and given that his base is composed in no small part of seniors and near-seniors). But even assuming none of those entitlement cuts come to fruition, the rising deficits will put any Democrat who comes into power in 2020 or even 2024 in a bind. Big progressive programs — universal health care, free college, universal basic income — require massive infusions in cash. And because the deficit under Donald Trump is already spiraling out of control, any responsible Democrat would either have to jack up taxes or dramatically scale back his or her ambitions, all the while Republican opponents decry the rising deficits and demand massive spending cuts. It happened after President Obama took office in 2009, even though the world economy was cratering and deficit spending was undeniably the proper course of action. And it’ll happen again, especially if and when the economy — which has now been growing for eight years — hits a recession.
4. TEN POLITICAL HEADLINES.
The Trump administration plans to begin denying permanent residency to legal immigrants who use food aid and other assistance benefits. [Reuters]
The Trump administration deported a pillar of an Ohio community who owned several businesses and had an American citizen wife and children, after forty years in the country. [CNN]
Top White House Officials knew about the abuse allegations against Rob Porter for months but did nothing. [WaPo]
Because of the Porter imbroglio, Trump is now peeved at his chief of staff, John Kelly, and has taken to calling his former chief of staff, Reince Priebus, to complain about him. [NYT]
Now back in the reality-show business, former White House aide Omarosa Manigault Newman says she wouldn’t vote for Trump again “in a million years, never.” [CBS]
Ahead of Donald Trump unveiling his infrastructure plan next week, Democrats are unveiling theirs. [Newsweek]
Trump is reinstating and expanding an Obama regulation he previously repealed to allow states to drug test those receiving unemployment benefits. [Politico]
Political forecaster Charlie Cook says that, while Republicans have been polling better of late, a Democratic wave is still likely — at least for now. [National Journal]
If you want to know exactly how much of a lackey Representative Devin Nunes is for Trump — and how he’s trying to derail the House’s Russia investigation — read here. [CNN]
Marco Rubio has pushed back against a weak-tea Fox News story that implied that Senator Mark Warner had engaged is some sort of funny business by texting a lobbyist associated with a Russian billionaire, in an effort to set up a meeting with ex-spy Christopher Steele. But doing that is well within Warner’s role on the Senate Intelligence Committee, and he disclosed those contacts to the committee months ago, so another nothingburger here. Of course, that didn’t stop Donald Trump from turning the conspiracy knob up to eleven. [HuffPo]
For the second time in a week, the Dow lost more than a thousand points Thursday. [CBS]
Facebook’s top executive in Europe has an incurable, but slow-progressing, blood cancer. [CNN]
Here are the results from Thursday’s Olympic events. [Bleacher Report]
In a radical restructuring designed to please Lebron James, the Cleveland Cavaliers traded Isaiah Thomas to the Lakers and Dwayne Wade to the Heat. [NYT]
Young Americans are having less sex than they used to. [Politico]
Lena Dunham is bringing a new comedy to HBO, this one starring Jennifer Garner. [AV Club]
Mostly clear today, with a high of 57. So I’m taking the afternoon off and going hiking. Have a good weekend, everyone. [WRAL]
