Jan 4, 2023
Statistical Rethinking Course for Jan-Mar 2023. Contribute to rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2023 development by creating an account on GitHub.
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Statistical Rethinking Course for Jan-Mar 2023. Contribute to rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2023 development by creating an account on GitHub.
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"Correlation is not causation" has been fetishized
The quote above is from The Book of Why, a fantastic new book from Judea Pearl, one of the leading lights of causal inference. His other books are more mathematical, but this accessible text is written for a general audience.
The fetishization of "correlation is not causation" is very real, ubiquitous on Tumblr, and plagues discussion of both healthy metabolism and metabolic pathologies.
"Correlation is not causation" should be the start of discussion, not its end.
Building a Culture of Life & Dignity - Human Flourishing Metrics
Correlation is everywhere in data science, but it often misleads because correlation does not imply causation. To answer real causal questio
Correlation, Causation, and the Beautiful Lies We Tell Ourselves
We humans adore patterns.We breathe them, chase them, worship them. A star blinks and we invent a myth.Our heart breaks once and we swear it’s fate.Two numbers rise together and suddenly we have a theory of everything. This is where it beginsthe most seductive misunderstanding in science and in life:Correlation feels like causation.And our brains, emotional and impatient, rarely stop to ask the…
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me & my counterfactuals (after the events occur)
I wonder how often studies finding that X activity is bad for you (or that doing it excessively is bad for you) are just picking up on the fact that a day has 24 hours, so any time you dedicate to an activity necessarily crowds out other, potentially benefitial, activities. (same argument works the other way around, studies finding good effects may just be picking up crowding out of bad activities).
"Resolving empirical controversies with mechanistic evidence" - Some thoughts
Recently, I came across the open access article Resolving empirical controversies with mechanistic evidence. I have some thoughts on the arguments made in the article, but first a disclaimer: This is not meant to be a disciplinary beauty contest. The article raises a valuable point: Two or more quantitative models may produce contradictory results. Depending on the research question at hand, it…
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