#butnosnow

2/4/2105

Tonight I have decided to do a "nowcast" and analyze the slight chance for snow in Starkville tonight.  To do this, I will use Bufkit to determine precipitation type, satellite imagery to observe cloud and atmospheric characteristics throughout the day and raw data to make my prediction. 

Last visible image of the night at around 5:30pm.  There clearly is sufficient cloud cover over MS at this time, but now let's look at the characteristics of these clouds.  

Infrared Imagery indicating that there is a small streak of thicker, colder clouds, but it does not cover much of the state at all.  

Water Vapor Imagery shows drier air coming off the LA coast, leading into south MS.  This is one of my biggest concerns in our chance for snow, because if there is no moisture, there is no precipitation. Plain and simple. 

Another thing to question is, will the temperature get low enough for snow to form at the surface?  Normally, the answer is no, because, well, we live in the South.  But let's take a look at what the models and Bufkit have to tell us.  

This is the temperatures around 5am this morning when our greatest chance for snow is.  At this time, temps in Starkville remain in the lower 40s, as the are right now (as of 9:30pm, surface temp is 43 degrees). 

Looking at Bufkit, surface temps are also around 40 degrees F (6 degrees C) until 7 am when it gets down to 35 degrees F (2 degrees C).  Surface temp and dew point are also a little drier than we would want for snow to fall. There is no moisture in the snow growth region, until around 7am; but by then the sun will have risen heating the surface, and drying out the atmosphere, therefore, the snow will not have time to fall.  

Sorry folks, I predict little to no snow falling in Starkville tonight...not that anyone would be awake to even see it... However, depending on location within the state, (more north=colder surface temps) some places could see more snow falling than we will here.  

Tomorrow is going to be COLD though! Morning temperatures will start out just about freezing and by 3 pm, we heat up into the low 40s.  Back to freezing temperatures again tomorrow night, and very dry air.  No more close calls for snow.

Hopefully we will get an other shot at snow this month! ...Maybe we could even get a day off...!! (I bet New Englanders hate hearing that!!)