#benavidez

Joey

June 23rd, 2019

To this point, the UFC ESPN cards have been pretty easy to decipher. They're entirely based upon really good main events with people you know bolstered by main cards filled with good fights with people you'd know and then not really much else on the prelim slate. This card is a prime example of that sort of fight building; a tremendous main event in JDS vs Ngannou (or Woodley vs Lawler), a main card with good fighters in good fights and then? Well not much. It's a pretty barren prelim slate hurt by a few drop outs but it's not going to be remembered. It's a solid fight card that probably could've used more big fight as opposed to one more GOOD fight but what are ya gonna do. If the worst fight on the main card is an action fight between Polo Reyes and Drew Dober? You're probably okay.

Fights: 13

Debuts: Journey Newson, Vince Murdock, Dalcha Lungiambula

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 4 (Tyrone Woodley vs Robbie Lawler CANCELLED/ Sergio Pettis OUT, Journey Newson IN vs Ricardo Ramos/Chas Skelly OUT, Vince Murdock IN vs Jordan Griffin/Roman Dolidze OUT, Eryk Anders IN vs Vinicius Moreira)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 5 (Junior Dos Santos, Francis Ngannou, Joe Benavidez, Demian Maia, Eryk Anders)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: 4 (Eryk Anderson, Jared Gordon, Junior Albini, Dan Moret)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 8 (Francis Ngannou, Junior Dos Santos, Joe Benavidez, Jussier Formiga, Anthony Rocco Martin, Roosevelt Roberts, Maurice Green, Emily Whitmire)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2017 (in the UFC): 33-16

Junior Dos Santos- 3-1 Francis Ngannou- 4-2 Jussier Formiga- 4-1 Joe Benavidez- 2-1 Demian Maia- 2-3 Anthony Rocco Martin- 6-1 Vinc Pichel- 2-1 Roosevelt Roberts- 2-0 Drew Dober- 3-1 Polo Reyes- 1-2 Paul Craig- 3-2 Alonzo Menifield- 1-0

Fights By Weight Class (yearly number here):

Light Heavyweight- 3 (25) Lightweight-  3 (42) Heavyweight- 2 (18) Women’s Strawweight- 1 (17) Flyweight- 1 (8) Welterweight- 1 (35) Bantamweight-  1 (31) Featherweight- 1 (29)

Middleweight-  (20) Women’s Flyweight-  (18) Women’s Bantamweight- (8) Women’s Featherweight- (6)

2019 Number Tracker

Debuting Fighters (15-37)- Journey Newson, Vince Murdock, Dalcha Lungiambula, Amanda Ribas

Short Notice Fighters (15-21)- Journey Newson, Vince Murdock, Eryk Anders

Second Fight (37-11)- Alonzo Menifield, Jordan Griffin, Vinicius Moreira

Cage Corrosion (Fighters who have not fought within a year of the date of the fight) (12-23)-

Undefeated Fighters (23-25)- Roosevelt Roberts, Alonzo Menifield

Fighters with at least four fights in the UFC with 0 wins over competition still in the organization (8-8)- Justin Ledet, Jared Gordon

Weight Class Jumpers (Fighters competing outside of the weight class of their last fight even if they’re returning BACK to their “normal weight class”) (17-13)- Amanda Ribas

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- So is Ngannou vs Dos Santos a #1 contender fight? Stipe Miocic has beaten both guys without much trouble but if DC beats Stipe again, he might just up and retire? I'd assume JDS vs Cormier could be a fight people would be pretty into. Who else could be the #1 contender?

2- One of the more interesting parts of 2018 was the complete evaporation of NGannou's stock, in no small part due to the UFC basically throwing the Lewis vs Ngannou fight disaster entirely at his feet. We didn't just hear about how Ngannou had a bad fight but also how he had basically been an asshole to everybody over the course of a year (a not so hidden factor brought up by fighters who had run ins with him). From here Ngannou had to deal with the UFC backlash as well as his own mental block. He KO'd Curtis Blaydes in what could best be described as a hidden main event (it headlined a Chinese card during the deadest part of the schedule) and then he kicked off 2019 by smelting Cain Velasquez in the first ever official official ESPN card.  Now he could beat his second straight UFC champ in a row and potentially set himself up for a title fight. MMA is truly a weird sport with ever changing by the minute narratives.

3- If this is it for Demian Maia, what is his MMA legacy? Two time title contender, at times top 5 in two different weight classes, career renaissance in his late 30s and one of the best back takers ever. He's got a world class resume at two weight classes (Jake Shields, Anderson Silva, Nate Marquardt, Chael Sonnen, Usman, Covington, Woodley, Condit and so on so forth) with more big wins than losses. At the same time he's been apart of some of MMA's worst fights ever, went 0-2 in title fights and will probably not be remembered fondly outside of Brazil. Is Maia the Brazilian Urijah Faber?

4- If it's true that there's been some preliminary talks about Yan vs Sterling as a potential interim title fight, does that mean Henry Cejudo's facing the winner of Benavidez vs Formiga FOR SURE in December or January?

5- The Dana White Contenders Series has been a point of contention recently but I think a dude like Alonzo Menifield is why the show has its strengths. The UFC made Menifield fight twice; once vs UFC vet Daniel Jolly and then again against LFA vet Dashawn Boatright. He won both fights, they signed him and he just finished Vinicius Moreira in his UFC debut in January. Now, because they can't help themselves, he's getting a super tough fight against Paul Craig on a UFC main card. If the UFC has been able to do one thing with the Contenders Series, it's use it to help fill gaps at 205 lbs specifically with folks like Karl Roberson, Ryan Spann, Johnny Walker and the aforementioned Menifield.

6- Speaking of Contenders Series stuff, Roosevelt Roberts looks like he could in theory become a player at 155 lbs. Roberts debuted by subbing Darrell Horcher and then followed that up with a win over Thomas Gifford. Roberts is super composed, can strike a good bit, wrestle a good bit and seems like somebody who can stick around in a really tough weight class. He's fought a lot of veterans but not a lot of quality top level competition and that changes with spoiler Vinc Pichel. He hasn't had that sort of grueling back and forth fight and Pichel figures to bring that at the very least.

7- I know Drew Dober's carving out a nice niche as an action fighter but if he does anything BUT shoot for takedowns vs Marco Polo Reyes, I'm going to be floored.

8- Jordan Griffin in his second fight is worth watching. Griffin gave Dan Ige (he of a four fight winning streak), a pretty tough challenging fight in December. He's sort of not the UFC prototype from the Contenders Series (Dana tends to sign young raw athletic guys, Griffin is pushing 30 and with over 25 fights in his career) but showcased enough vs Ige that I'm excited to see his next fight. It's just a shame it's a filler opponent signed on two weeks notice and not Chas Skelly.

9- I know it's short notice and a bad opponent and etc etc etc etc but there's NO REASON for Eryk Anders to be fighting this soon after Khalil Rountree basically played King Of The Congo on his head for three rounds. Way too soon.

10- EFC hasn't had the best conversion rate in terms of producing successful UFC quality fighters but this is 205 lbs and so Dalcha Lungiambula is at least worth a cursory glance.

11- Anybody else surprised they've kept Junior Albini around after three straight losses? Albini opens up the show vs kinda surprising HW hit Mo Greene.

Joey

November 4th

Well folks, we've got a mere TWO months left in this Fox deal. That shakes out to two PPVs, four FS1 events, one Fight Pass Fight Night and one Fox event remain. Our first FS1 trip takes us to Denver, Colorado for a UFC Fight Night anniversary deal. In many ways, this event DOES feel like a throwback to the past. If you cut this show down to a four fight main card with no televised prelim slate, this would be a killer Fight Night. Yair vs Zombie is a fantastic main event on paper that should be an absolute gas while it lasts, the same goes for the action fighter vs action fighter clash as Mike Perry takes on Cowboy Cerrone and then the card is rounded out by two very intriguing battles between proven fighters and former title contenders (one champion!) in GDR vs Rocky Pennington and Ray Borg vs Joe Benavidez. It's not though and so plenty of folks will look at the lack of recognizable names and say "WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE!?" which while fair, also neglects how many top flight prospects they've got on this undercard. It's a four fight great card and then a combination of prospects vs prospects and newbies vs proven gatekeepers. It's actually a not bad fight card even if it's not the love affair many UFC fans probably want for their 25th Anniversary show. We've also got to get a face to face look at what seems to be a two month long farewell tour at 125 lbs as well. I'm not saying you HAVE to watch it but you'd be pretty darn happy TO watch it.

Fights: 13

Debuts:  Maycee Barber, Hannah Cifers, Thiago Moises, Julian Erosa, Devin Smith, Bobby Moffett

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 6 (Frankie Edgar OUT, Yair Rodriguez IN vs Chan Sung Jung/Ricardo Ramos vs Ricky Simon CANCELLED/Chris Greutzmacher OUT, Thiago Moises IN vs Beneil Dariush/Maia Stevenson OUT, Hanna Cifers IN vs Maycee Barber/Alonzo Menifield vs Saparbek Sarafov CANCELLED/Jordan Espinoza OUT, Joby Sanchez IN vs Mark De La Rosa)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 9 (Chan Sung Jung, Yair Rodriguez, Mike Perry, Donald Cerrone, Germaine De Randamie, Rocky Pennington, Ray Borg, Joe Benavidez, Beneil Dariush)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: (Ashley Yoder)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: (Germaine De Randamie, Davi Ramos)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2016 (in the UFC):  26-11

Yair Rodriguez- 1-0 Korean Zombie- 3-1 Mike Perry- 5-3 Donald Cerrone- 5-4 GDR- 2-0 Rocky Pennington- 3-1 Ray Borg- 2-2 Joe Benavidez- 2-1 Maycee Barber- 0-0 Hanna Cifers- 0-0 Mike Trizano- 1-0 Luis Pena- 1-0

Divisional Breakdown:

Lightweight- 4 Flyweight-3 Women's Strawweight- 2 Featherweight- 2 Welterweight- 1 Women's Bantamweight-1

Too Low- Beneil Dariush vs Thiago Moises

Let us begin with this fight, sitting comfortably at the very opening of the televised prelims. On a card full of debutantes, high level prospects and four really really good fights, this is one prelim fight that sort of kind of should be a lot higher and potentially as high as the main card. Thiago Moises is a pretty solid regional lightweight who got called up after a spot on the Dana White's Contenders Series in Brazil. At the very least, this has the potential to be a very fun back and forth grappling contest. It's far better than just assuming that these prospects in their debut won't have a slip up or get lost in their nerves.

Too High Up- Maycee Barber vs Hannah Cifers

Okay so this is actually a really good fight. I had a chance to watch Hannah Cifers throughout her Titan Fighting run. She's an articulate striker who often combines precision offense with pressure. She didn't do a ton of grappling in those fights but I'm going to bet she'll be okay there as well. There were basically three fighters given ample hype time going INTO the second season of the Contenders for Dana White; Greg Hardy, Nick Newell AND Maycee Barber. Barber walked through Jaimee Colleen who has a win over Danielle Taylor and outnumbered in her terms of experience. Barber has something different about her and it's not a surprise she's getting the O'Malley treatment given her age, talent level and the need for more fun things at 115 lbs. It just FEELS like you're asking a lot of her here and the same for Ciphers on short notice.

Stat Monitor for 2018:

Debuting Fighters (Current number: 27-35-1):  Maycee Barber, Hannah Cifers, Thiago Moises, Bobby Moffett, Julian Erosa, Devonte Smith

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 28-23):  Hannah Cifers, Thiago Moises, Joby Sanchez, Yair Rodriguez

Second Fight (Current number: 36-28-1): Mike Trizano, Luis Pena, John Gunther

Cage Corrosion (Current number: 21-36):  Yair Rodriguez, Korean Zombie, Germaine de Randamie, Ray Borg, Chas Skelly

Undefeated Fighters (Current number: 30-21-1): Maycee Barber, Mike Trizano, Luis Pena, John Gunther

Keeping An Eye On But Not Really:

The UFC Win Check Test The records of fighters who have 4 or more UFC fights (or three full calendar years in the organization) but 0 wins against people still in the UFC:  Amanda Bobby Cooper

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- Are we TOO optimistic about this main event? On paper, Yair Rodriguez vs Chan Sung Jung is a fight for the ages. The all pressure power punching Zombie vs the super flashy Mexican star seems like the sort of shit you'd get excited about. There are just three key aspects about this fight that I'm having a tough time getting my hands around. The FIRST is the location. Yair Rodriguez has fought at altitude countless times before so it'd be unfair to assume he can't do it BUT it is worth remembering that he was absolutely dead tired in Mexico both times and he slowed down quite a bit in the 4th or 5th rounds in Utah. The Korean Zombie has never struck me as a dude who has had issues with his conditioning but that was a military assignment and a few knee surgeries ago plus I don't think he's ever had a real big altitude fight like this one. The second aspect is just the all around concern or confusion on Yair Rodriguez's mindset. Yair was crushed by Frankie Edgar in his sole UFC loss and that was in May of 2017. He admittedly opted to take a year off to heal up/get better/train around before getting cut from the UFC for a short spell due to Yair either turning down a succession of fights or just not wanting to get bullied into taking a fight. He took a fight vs Zhabit in September, pulled out due to injury and now he's back in early November with no mention of the injury. When Dana was asked about Yair after he pulled out of the Zhabit fight, Dana implied in so many words that Yair was a guy who just didn't want to fight. I think wondering where his head is at relative to taking a fight like THIS one is worthy of asking. Lastly, I think it's 100% fair to say we're not going to see the best version of either dude. The Zombie has fought just ONE time since 2013 and he's now officially beyond 30 years old. Injuries and a military service took him away from MMA for a looong time now and against Bermudez, he looked pretty rusty before he snapped back into it to end the show early. Yair Rodriguez is taking this fight on short notice plus  a year away plus the questions around his career plus the fact that the last time he saw him, Edgar was punching his face into the canvas. I'm not saying this fight will suck, I'm saying we should temper our expectations a bit.

2- How valuable will Yair Rodriguez's kicks be if he's to pull off this upset?

3- So much of Donald Cerrone vs Mike Perry feels like a matter of determining how washed up Donald Cerrone is vs how much you believe Mike Perry can improve under the watchful eyes of Jackson-Wink. Cerrone is what he is and he was able to fight at a frenetic pace against Leon Edwards, giving us an occasional glimpse of what he's good at while reminding us of all the things he's been bad at for his entire career. Mike Perry's upside is of the Chris Leben variety; a high level fun brawler who is going to throw down until the sun goes down on him. That said you'd have to hope an elite gym can iron out some of the weaknesses he's got, primarily his over aggresiveness and his defensive lapses. Would be the hope, riiiight?

4-  If you read this and you're rooting for Cerrone to win so you can get Diego vs Cerrone? Shame on y'all, man.

5- Anybody feel really bad about Ray Borg vs Joseph Benavidez? On paper, this is a really intriguing fight between the inconsistent Borg and the declining Benavidez; the sort of fight that could get Borg back on the winning track or maybe open the door for Benavidez to have one last run to the title. The problem is that there may be no title---and the problem may be that a really good fight on paper will be meaningless because the division is gone. That draws the air out of the building so much for me. The same goes for all three of these fights. Are the winners basically fighting for spots in the 135 lb division?

6- The Contenders Series is really about churning out quantity with some hype vs turning out future champions BUT they've got a few guys on here who could at least be in the conversation of potential title contenders. Maycee Barber is just 20 years old, undefeated and blessed with all sort of skills. Devonte Smith is getting a put together short notice fight vs Julian Erosa to pad the card but he's VERY good and figures to show out against a quality journeyman (fighting out of his weight class). Lastly Thiago Moises could develop into a quality lightweight who can be relied on to draw fights in Brazil.

7- Davi Ramos has won two straight in the UFC, both by submission. Normally that gets you a nice step up but the reality is that it's not happening here. He's getting John Gunther in what feels like an opportunity to run Gunther out of the UFC after his awful win vs Allan Zuniga.

8- GDR totally disappeared off the face of the Earth after her win vs Holly Holm, citing hand problems and an unwillingness to fight Cyborg to go along with a pull out of a fight vs Marion Reneau. She returns against Rocky Pennington who had an equally lengthy lay off prior to her fight vs Amanda Nunes. This feels like a last chance fight for two ladies with different issues.

9- Why is Amanda Bobby Cooper vs Ashley Yoder the featured prelim? Is there some sort of Mackenzie Dern victim prize at stake?

10- Chas Skelly vs Bobby Moffet is the Spiderman pointing meme of this card.

11- The TUF Undefeated Season was...something. It was a grueling watch live and the finale is easily the worst TUF finale I've ever seen. This is a big bounce back opportunities for guys like Mike Trizano and John Gunther. Luis Pena got hurt and was pulled off the show but dominated Richie Smullen so he's sort of safe. Trizano vs Pena is going to be a very interesting fight worth keeping an eye on.