How to Develop an Autoregression Forecast Model for Household Electricity Consumption

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Given the rise of smart electricity meters and the wide adoption of electricity generation technology like solar panels, there is a wealth of electricity usage data available.

This data represents a multivariate time series of power-related variables that in turn could be used to model and even forecast future electricity consumption.

Autocorrelation models are very simple and can…

--having a difficult time getting an original source on this quote

This is like unknotting an autoregressive term in a time series. Even if the past only has a hold on the present back to 5 years ago, your upbringing still influences you when you're 70.

Because

who you were at 15 influences who you were at 20 ρ¹,

which in turn influences who you were at 25 ρ²,

and so on until 9 half-decades later there's a ρ¹¹ echo of your 15-year-old self

whose apprehension at the way she looked (or rather didn't look) rumbles faintly, faintly, faintly, faintly, faintly, faintly, faintly, faintly, faintly, faintly, faintly through time--the decisions then affected the next decisions which altered the next decisions ... on and on to the present.

If the initial spike was −1<ρ<1, then the rumble of the thunder diminishes geometrically over time. So a ρ=½ only shivers .00049 eleven knots into the future, and even a ρ=.9 recedes to a .314 by the time it's so deep past.