This might very well be the rugpull that makes me an accelerationist.
Not really. I've got too much compassion and cynicism for that.
Compassion in that I think its morally HIDEOUS to expect people to suffer to manifest the endgame of your slam dunk, iron clad theory of history and human behavior.
Cynicism in that I don't believe in slam dunk, iron clad theories of history and human behavior.
But I'm so tired and angry at all the rug pulls.
Oh look, a 90 day pause on the most extreme tariffs with China following "really promising talks."
Who could ever have predicted it?
That's sarcasm for those who can't read tone or are rightfully suspicious that you can never truly be sure if a person possesses a conventional understanding of reality when reading their prose.
There's a pause and no substantive re-negotiations because of course there isn't. There will be mild tweaks that don't address any of the administration's stated problems and don't address any of the problems with China that the economic left, the social justice left, the DC security consensus, or the "America first" economic populist right. And Trump will claim its the best deal anyone has ever negotiated, a minimum of 60ish million people will probably believe him, and it will in no way be criticized by a Republican political class that is a mix of grifters, Trump cultists, and old school Paleocons with tangible ideological commitments who are nonetheless cowed by the threat of violent mobs and lawfare.
And I'm left stewing in large part because I sort of want this and I'm angry that I do.
Of course I don't want to suddenly discover what its like to live in a country like post Ukraine Invasion Russia circa 2022 where because of the stupidity and malignancy of my leaders, I'm staring at empty shelves and massive inflation on goods that were very affordable a week ago.
I'm a selfish American lefty who wants to be weaned off of cheap goods crafted through the sort of abysmal labor and environmental processes that my forefathers fought hard to overcome. Because while I deplore the indignities and environmental ruin that we've offshored, I don't believe that any sort of cosmic moral score is being settled by rugpulling industrial work from China et al. while we spend years rebuilding the tools to build the tools to build the tools to achieve some sort of more ethical and environmentally friendly form of autarky.
I neither believe the "developing world" will or can amiably return to whatever pastoral Edenic fantasy degrowthers think was the state of affairs prior to the 3rd world industrializing; nor do I think that the average American's moral culpability is serious enough that we, in some sense, "deserve this." The offshoring was done to us as much as it was done to the developing world, and while I loathe the pernicious mix of ignorance and animosity that animates the typical Trump voter I think they too at least when it comes to the economy and re-industrialization are being rug pulled too.
But if the fever is ever to break, they have to actually feel betrayed. Feel betrayed so profoundly that they can't "but the Democrats!" anymore. I don't know that a "Russia in the first quarter of sanctions" level experience would actually do that and the amount of collateral damage to people who don't need to "find out" would be profound. It's already pretty damn profound.
So here we are, in what may be the worst of all worlds: at least when it comes to Trumpinomics.
A lot of rage, fury, livelihoods lost, but with nothing to show for it.
We didn't break the addiction to foreign autocratic industry, Trump will probably get credit (among his followers) for achieving nothing of substance, Trump will likely not be punished for nearly stealing Christmas, and we will continue to live in this bizarre paradox where our livelihoods are subsidized by cheap goods but ironically the things we do make in this country, like housing, are increasingly unaffordable.
Also IF defending Taiwan IS something that we can and should do and it were possible to do that without burning down half the planet in nuclear fire, China is still going to be able to wield access to microchips as a weapon in the event of a Taiwan invasion. Although realistically if Taiwan puts up a fight, the chip fabbers are probably going to be destroyed. The human expertise and the infrastructure are just too fragile and if the Taiwanese government doesn't wreck it out of spite, then partisans surely will. So we have no real strategic leverage on that front either.
Which, again, I have complicated thoughts about Taiwan and the sanity of doing what I acknowledge is the morally forthright thing, but I seriously doubt now that if a Taiwan invasion happens on Trump's watch we're doing much of anything about it. If Trump is cowed by the prospect of empty shelves, then I simply cannot conceive of him having the fire in the belly to send aircraft carriers into the teeth of a hypersonic missile storm. Which is probably better for the world but a shit sandwich for Taiwan and that sucks. I don't think nationalism is entirely a scam, culture is real, and so are norms of how a people expect to be governed and how they experience their civil liberties.