Ok, so there's a Big Fuckin' Moon tonight, a Blue Supermoon or some shit like that. Do I look like a scientist? But They say there won't be another one like this till like 2037.

I don't care if you actually go outside and look at it, but be prepared to lie and say you did. By 2037, some of y'all be having kids or even grandkids, and they're going to say, "Grandpa, you remember the last Big Fuckin' Moon?" and then you gotta be able to look those little bastards right in the eye and say, "Yes I do."

This is a big fucking deal – or as President Obama would put it, a “BFD”.

Democrat Pat Ryan won a special election to fill a vacancy in NY-19 caused when fellow Democrat Antonio Delgado resigned from the US House to become lieutenant governor of New York. Mr. Delgado may have felt it would be easier to win a statewide race than to seek re-election in a district with a lean of R+4.

This special election had been rated a toss-up though polling gave a slight advantage to Republican Marc Molinaro. 

Tuesday’s special election garnered special attention as an indication of how voters could behave in November, and what issues could galvanize them to vote.

Molinaro zeroed in on the economy while Ryan looked to seize on anger surrounding the overturning of Roe v. Wade to drive their respective voters to the polls. The Democrat rolled out his first television ad of the campaign cycle, which focused on abortion, less than an hour after the Supreme Court announced its decision to strike down protections for the procedure.

This district is very swingy. In 2016 it went for Trump by 6.7% and in 2020 it went for Biden by 1.5%. Ryan won by 3.8% – and that doesn’t even count mail-in and absentee votes which somewhat favor Democrats.

The turnout was exceptionally high. People were fired up about the Trump Republican SCOTUS ruling invalidating Roe v. Wade and about Trump’s coup attempt along with his theft of classified materials which included nuclear documents.

When you factor in the lean of this district (R+4) and Ryan’s margin of victory, this represents a swing of 7.8%. If even just half of that party swing occurs nationally, then Dems have a decent chance of hanging on to the US House.

The lesson here is that when good people take the time to vote, bad candidates lose. Voters in NY-19 ignored the media narrative that Trump Republicans are automatically going to win the House because of historical determinism or whatever. 

So make sure your voter registration is up to date and that you encourage all your pro-democracy friends to vote this year. There are more than a couple of dozen bellwether districts like NY-19 out there which are within reach if a little more effort is put into holding or flipping them.