Except maybe on Fox News, we are no longer hearing “Republicans are the overwhelming favorites to take control of the House”. 😄

In your typical midterm election with an unpopular Democratic president, you’d expect Republicans to be flying high. But the evidence is mounting that the national political environment right now actually leans toward Democrats.

On Tuesday, Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro in a special election for New York’s swingy 19th Congressional District by 2 percentage points, 51 percent to 49 percent.1 At the same time, Republican Joe Sempolinski defeated Democrat Max Della Pia by a closer-than-expected margin of 7 points in the special election for New York’s solid-red 23rd District. On their own, these elections could be dismissed as flukes, chalked up to local factors or particularly strong or weak candidates. But given how these two elections are part of a larger pattern of good results for Democrats over the last two months, they suddenly look a lot more like signal than noise.

To go with his article, Nathaniel Rakich created this revealing chart showing the partisan trend in US House special elections for the 117th Congress.

What’s implicit is that if there is anything even close to a D+9 trend in every district in the midterms then the Trump Republicans are likely to lose US House seats.

The shocking anti-abortion Dobbs decision by the Trump Republican Supreme Court reminded Americans that their rights are hanging by a thread. A Republican Congress could outlaw abortion even in states where it currently remains fully legal. So pro-choice Democrats began experiencing a spike in popularity starting with the SCOTUS demolition of Roe v. Wade.

In addition to abortion, Republicans are also hurt by this summer’s revelations regarding Trump’s involvement in the January 6th coup attempt and his illegal possession of classified materials including nuclear documents at Mar-a-Lago.

While this is good news for pro-democracy Americans, elections are not won with polls, charts, and optimistic comments from analysts. We need to make a strong commitment to vote this year. Voting has to get a high priority – and so does encouraging vote slackers to go to the polls.

Be A Voter - Vote Save America 

David Lauter at the Los Angeles Times on the changing electoral landscape since the Trump Republican Supreme Court tossed out Roe v. Wade. 

Mr. Lauter’s last sentence was funny and revealing. Some Trump Republican candidates are now trying to destroy any record of their extremist anti-abortion views.

This is a big fucking deal – or as President Obama would put it, a “BFD”.

Democrat Pat Ryan won a special election to fill a vacancy in NY-19 caused when fellow Democrat Antonio Delgado resigned from the US House to become lieutenant governor of New York. Mr. Delgado may have felt it would be easier to win a statewide race than to seek re-election in a district with a lean of R+4.

This special election had been rated a toss-up though polling gave a slight advantage to Republican Marc Molinaro. 

Tuesday’s special election garnered special attention as an indication of how voters could behave in November, and what issues could galvanize them to vote.

Molinaro zeroed in on the economy while Ryan looked to seize on anger surrounding the overturning of Roe v. Wade to drive their respective voters to the polls. The Democrat rolled out his first television ad of the campaign cycle, which focused on abortion, less than an hour after the Supreme Court announced its decision to strike down protections for the procedure.

This district is very swingy. In 2016 it went for Trump by 6.7% and in 2020 it went for Biden by 1.5%. Ryan won by 3.8% – and that doesn’t even count mail-in and absentee votes which somewhat favor Democrats.

The turnout was exceptionally high. People were fired up about the Trump Republican SCOTUS ruling invalidating Roe v. Wade and about Trump’s coup attempt along with his theft of classified materials which included nuclear documents.

When you factor in the lean of this district (R+4) and Ryan’s margin of victory, this represents a swing of 7.8%. If even just half of that party swing occurs nationally, then Dems have a decent chance of hanging on to the US House.

The lesson here is that when good people take the time to vote, bad candidates lose. Voters in NY-19 ignored the media narrative that Trump Republicans are automatically going to win the House because of historical determinism or whatever. 

So make sure your voter registration is up to date and that you encourage all your pro-democracy friends to vote this year. There are more than a couple of dozen bellwether districts like NY-19 out there which are within reach if a little more effort is put into holding or flipping them.

Yesterday I voted early in the New York primary for members of the US House of Representatives and for the NY State Senate. I wore the Vote Early shirt I got from the merch store of Rep. Lauren Underwood (IL-14). 

Sunday is the last day of early voting in NY. If you can’t make it today, you can always vote at your regular precinct polling place on Election Day – Tuesday August 23rd.

In addition to the primary, there are special elections in NY-19 (in the Hudson River Valley) and in NY-23 (in southwestern New York). These are to fill vacancies for the last few months of the 117th Congress.

If you live in Ulster County, you might be getting an unusual “I Voted” sticker.