#48opinion

Hi there! 

I never said it online before but my irl friends all know that I’ve fallen out of love with Nyannyan. It started after last year’s fan meeting in Taiwan where I got pissed at her for a bit. Thereafter I just start to slowly like her less, but the time after her announcement was when I rapidly started to stop liking her that much. I still cried like a baby at the announcement/election (even cried during my new biases’ live LOL), but then I got over it fast LOL 

I haven’t watched her graduation anything, to be honest, because I know I’ll still cry, so maybe when it dies down a little, I can watch it without having swollen eyes for days. I’ve seen enough gifs and screencaps to know generally what happened for concert and show. And I do believe the Aki-P letter already got translated online. Let me know if you really can’t find it. I read the transcript on my Twitter and it was a really good letter.  

Yoyogi Stadium was good, but not the best location. She could have done it at a bigger venue, or SSA (her hometown), but AKS just have to fuck up the booking of stadiums. They are basically just making up reasons why it should be at YYG. I bet AKS is dying to reap more profit off Nyan before her ultimate graduation but they just can’t get a good enough venue. 

Nyan might not be close to a lot of her juniors but we know these kids practically grew up watching AKB/1st few gens, and to them, she is their idols. It’s the same feeling we felt, and even more, because they can interact with her more than we could. If we can be that sad watching her graduate, these members who are fans and colleagues, will feel it more. For Miyuki which you’ve mentioned, she is close to Nyan when she was in NMB/AKB. They got along really well and it’s cute seeing them together in Team B. Nyan do have a few juniors that she looks after, be it privately or more over the table, and these babies are the ones really bawling their eyes out at the concert & show. Nyan takes care of some of them really well, and she’s not someone who will flaunt it in our faces. That’s one thing I do love about her. 

Sorry I took so long to answer; I wanted to wait until tonight’s performance was over before I crafted my reply, just in case anyone tried to spring anymore surprises on us this evening. Nothing out of the blue tonight, so my thoughts remain more or less the same since the last major update during Team G’s last performance.

I think with the appearance of the extra guest performers, I would label statement #1 about banning other members from attending the performance as ‘untrue’, at least with regards to NGT48’s members. I understand there has been a comment by a Team 8 member on showroom that seemed to imply that non-NGT48 members were not allowed to attend. Maybe, maybe not; from NGT48’s point of view, it’s seems fair to me that that they shouldn’t get any of the other sister groups involved in their own internal affairs at this point in time. At the same time, Yamaguchi’s faction has made it clear that they want nothing more to do with the organization, sister group colleagues included. If they’re going cut ties with the group, might as well do it quickly and cleanly. Tonight’s the night to do it - leave behind all the emotional baggage, burn every remaining bridge (both within NGT48 and across 48G), and start afresh with a clean slate elsewhere. Inviting/allowing sister group members to attend would only delay and complicate the process.

Regarding Akimoto-sensei’s role in all this - as you have rightly said, we’ve known all this time that his role in actually managing the groups has largely been outsourced over the past few years to other management staff within AKS, KeyHolder, Yoshimoto, N46div, Seed&Flower LLC etc. depending on the groups involved. All he does now is to sign off on major decisions and write lyrics for 48G’s songs. Which is why I’ve never directly named him in my discussions regarding this matter prior to this, and also why I strongly disagreed with all the parties (media, fans, Internet Pitchfork Mob, etc.) who tried to force him to be accountable for what had happened. Sure, maybe he could have made some sort of public statement regarding the matter, but of all the parties to blame, he’s definitely not the first one I’d arrow. As a side note, that was an A+ diplomatic move from Akimoto tonight, to write an exclusive graduation song for Yamaguchi, Sugahara and Hasegawa. He didn’t have to do it, but it was nice that he did.

Tough times lie ahead for NGT48. Their failure to reach an amicable solution that could satisfy Yamaguchi marks a grim end to this fiasco, not to mention the potential threat of future legal action against them should Yamaguchi continue to pursue that route. They’re up against the ropes now, having turned themselves into a punching bag for the media and 48G’s critics. There’s really nothing more they can do at this point that wouldn’t complicate things even further for themselves and for 48G.

Best option for NGT48 now, in my opinion, is to just hunker down and take the hits. Retreat, lie low, and wait out the storm. Hold off any attempts at mainstream releases for at least this year, and don’t try anything fancy or stupid. A ‘restricted contact’ approach should be taken for now in terms of interacting with sister group colleagues as well. Limit NGT48’s involvement in 48G-wide initiatives to the basics only (handshakes, only 1-2 members on Senbatsu A-sides, no concerts), while having 48G’s senior leadership keep a watchful eye on them. On the organizational level, resources and attention have been wisely diverted towards STU48. With the timely launch of their new mobile ship-based theater, and led with an iron fist by Okada Nana, STU48 is in a prime position to act as a viable asset for 48G to continue the successes of the business model started by NGT48.

A drastic internal restructuring and rebranding should be the key focus of NGT48’s efforts in the meantime, including continuous engagement between Management & members to see how best to move forward. Resources from senior sister groups (AKB48, SKE48 and NMB48 - I’ll leave HKT48 out of this since they’re still recovering from losing Sashihara, Yabuki and Miyawaki) should also be deployed towards assisting NGT48 in this matter (preferably in a more behind-the-scenes approach, so as to avoid unwanted backlash from isolationist sister-group fans). Later on, NGT48 must also rework their grassroots initiatives to try and earn back at least some of goodwill they’ve lost.

Well that’s unfortunate. Sousenkyo had always been a gold mine for raw data regarding the state of affairs within 48G, and I had hoped to see a few predictions come to fruition, but I guess that’s not to be.

Of course, with the ongoing investigations regarding NGT48, plus the hullabaloo that occurred last year with Jurina and Sakura, perhaps it’s not all that surprising that Sousenkyo would be held off this year.

We're just about coming up to 4 weeks since this ticking time bomb detonated in AKS's face. A fatal series of missteps by AKS, combined with a fumbling, delayed and vague response, meant that a situation could have easily been resolved behind-the-scenes, has since escalated into a critical PR disaster that has jeopardized the future of 48G as an organization.

I'd thought we were just about to start establishing reasonable solutions to the crisis last week, with the higher-ups putting into action a plan to try to remedy the situation and reach out to Yamaguchi, but the events of the past 24 hours have me on edge. Honestly, I'd been hoping against hope that NGT48 could resolve this crisis in an amicable manner, with a solution that would ideally have been win-win-win for all the parties involved. Recovery, re-integration and closure for Yamaguchi, a revision of existing management policies for the better, and even - forgive my optimism - a chance at reconciliation and rehabilitation for the alleged "masterminds" within the group.

But I've been wrong before, and it seems I'll be wrong again, because it seems that all sides - AKS, Yamaguchi and even the fans - are hell-bent on steering this towards the apocalyptic worst-case lose-lose-lose scenario I'd been fearing since the start. Between all the shit-slinging, rampant speculation and baying for blood, fueled by the fires of vigilantism and mob mentality, it seems diplomacy, due process, and a logical, rational approach are no longer viable options. It's war they want, and it's war they'll get, even if it means burning NGT48 and 48G down to the ground.

Honestly, it's just plain depressing to see it come to this state. NGT48 had a winning formula on its hands, becoming almost a gold-standard for localized idol groups seeking to revitalize ailing prefectural economies. To see everything they've achieved being destroyed like this, with the group being fractured seemingly beyond repair, is disappointing, to say the least.

Well, nothing else I can do but watch and wait. The day I became a fan, I promised myself I’d stick with this group through to the end, no matter what happened. 

I would not be surprised if that does indeed happen. Weren’t there also rumours that Kojima Mako was also in negotiations with a Korean agency? Frustrating, to say the least. It’s definitely my personal biases against K-pop speaking here, but I really, really hate seeing the Koreans one-up us over and over again. They rigged a competition against us, forced us to give up key personalities within the organization, and now they’re even poaching our members? Screw ‘em all to hell and back, is all I can say.

That said, for back-bencher theater-only members like Takeuchi and Miyazaki, who really have nothing to lose and everything to gain in choosing such a path, I wouldn’t mind so much (and I might even encourage them to do so). But for members like Miyawaki, Yabuki and Takahashi, who have very real responsibilities to 48G as leaders and key personalities within the organization, it’s just irritating to see all those resources that have been invested in their development just go to waste like that.

It’s almost been a day since Yamaguchi Maho went public with the news that she was a victim of physical assault last month. Since then, all we’ve had are a few news reports, a near-complete lockdown of NGT48′s social media presence, and tons of rabid speculation from the Internet Pitchfork Mob. Not helping matters is the fact that NGT48′s management is still taking their own sweet time in responding to the situation. Granted, they definitely need to carefully craft their press release so as not to make it any worse than it already is, having to consult with their in-house legal team, their shareholders, and probably the authorities as well.

I’m not here to pass judgement. I cannot, and will not do so, especially when there is clearly a criminal component involved in this case. This is ultimately up to the criminal justice system to deal with, and due process must be followed in its execution.

What I seek to do, however, is to carry out a fact-finding exercise. And I encourage all of you to join me in this endeavour. Put aside all emotions and preconceived notions. Forget the anger-fueled speculations and accusations that currently plague Twitter and Stage48. What I want is the raw information as it has been presented to us. No reading between the lines, no re-interpretations on unofficial news sites, no ‘some guy on Twitter/2chan’, no ‘fuck AKS, fire all of them’.  First-party accounts and official sources only. Cold, hard facts. That’s all. 

So, enough chitchat. Here’s a quick rundown of what we do know.

Sometime in December 2018, when returning home at night after a performance, Yamaguchi was entering her apartment/dormitory in Niigata when she was physically assaulted by two 25-year-old male university students. The assailants stopped and escaped only when it appeared someone else was coming up via the building’s elevator. The encounter lasted approximately 1 minute. (Source: First-party account, corroborated by NHK) - At this point in time, no witnesses to this event have been identified or named. 

Yamaguchi subsequently went to the police with this information. Investigations were carried out by the police and by Management, and the two assailants were arrested on suspicion of assault. However, they denied the charges, and were released from police custody (possibly pending further investigation). Yamaguchi’s personal mobile phone was also handed over to an unspecified party (unsure if police or Management) during the course of the investigation. (Source: First-party account, corroborated by NHK)

Yamaguchi also claims that an unspecified number of NGT48 members were also involved in this, by allegedly providing her address, approximate time of arrival and access to the apartment to the assailants. Said members were also identified to the police over the course of the investigation. She claims that NGT48′s manager Imamura and the rest of NGT48 were made aware of this, and action was supposed to have been taken against said member(s), but nothing has yet been done since the incident. (Source:  First-party account, followed-up on by a TV Asahi report) - No one has been named at this point in time. - Yahoo! News, however, claims that staff members denied any involvement from any other members of NGT48.

The trigger for Yamaguchi deciding to go public with this information, was the discovery that the assailants had been released from police custody (as per #2). She first attempted a Showroom livestream on the night of 8 January 2019, during which she became emotional, and the livestream got cut off before she could convey her message. She would later post a series of tweets on her Twitter account on the morning of 9 January 2019, some of which have since been deleted. (Source:  First-party account)