#$sp500

Please join Jeff Hirsch for a Free Webinar: 2026 Forecast: 6th Year of Presidency & AI Super Boom Fuel the Bull on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, at 4:00 PM EST by registering at:

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2827769536367123542

Description

So many market pundits have been commenting on how difficult midterm election years have been for the markets that it is unlikely it will be anywhere near as bad as the doomsayers warn. And while it’s true that overall midterm years are the worst year of the 4-year cycle, it is not the case for the second midterm year, especially second term republicans. His base case scenario, which he gives a 70% probability calls for some volatility, most likely during the “Worst Months” of 2026. Then a late 2026 rally that ultimately pushes the market to historical sixth year of presidential administrations gains for the year.

Jeff will dive deep into his 2026 Annual Forecast and share his assessments of the economy, the Fed, inflation, geopolitical events as well as answering the age-old question: Will there be a Santa Claus Rally this year? His January Indicator Trifecta combines his Santa Claus Rally, First Five Days, and January Barometer into a single indicator that has produced compelling results. The most bullish outcome has historically been when all three were positive. When all three are up the S&P 500 has been up over 90% of the time with double-digit full-year gains.

As seasonality turns positive, a year-end rally is likely, potentially driving the S&P 500 to 7,100. Plus, the January “small cap” Effect, December Triple Witching and the Only Free Lunch on Wall Street are all cued up!

Today (May 2) S&P 500 logged its first 9-day winning streak since November 2004. This will be just the 43rd time S&P 500 has been up nine days in a row or longer going back to 1930. Compared to past 9-day streaks, the current streak’s gain of 10.25% stands out as the largest. In fact, it is the largest gain of any streak, lasting nine or more trading days. Unfortunately, when the current daily winning streak comes to an end, S&P 500 performance over the next three months is not likely going to be as robust.

There is little doubt that 2019 was a good year for the market. DJIA advanced 22.3%, S&P 500 climbed 28.9% and NASDAQ jumped 35.2% in 2019. Even for a pre-election year, those gains are above average. Gains of this magnitude also have a tendency to cause some uneasiness as valuations are generally getting stretched and thoughts turn to profit taking or the possibility of a pullback or a correction.

As of today, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is currently showing a 98.7% chance the Fed will not change the Fed Funds rate tomorrow. During the current Fed tightening cycle (which is likely over for now), rates have been raised in 0.25% increments 9 times with the first occurring on December 16, 2015 and most recently on December 19, 2018. S&P 500 has advanced just two times out of the nine announcement days when rates were increased and was down seven straight prior to this January’s announcement when they paused.

In the chart above the 30 trading days before and after the last 88 Fed meetings (back to March 2008) are graphed. There are four lines, “All,” “Up,” “Down” and “Rate Hike Days” Up means the S&P 500 finished announcement day with a gain, down it finished with a loss or unchanged. Rate Hike Days are the nine times a hike was announced. Note how past down announcement days have, on average, enjoyed the best gains over the next 30 trading days.

Seasonality is one of 4 key indicators we analyze (the other 3 are: Money flow, technicals, and investor sentiment). Out of many seasonal patterns, this is probably the most important one for all of 2018.

The 2018 S&P 500 Forecast (part of the Profit Radar Report) highlighted this seasonal pattern (and chart):

“2018 is a mid-term year (based on the 4-year presidential election year cycle. Historically, stocks rally from the mid-year (2018) low to the pre-election year (2019) high (on average 50%). The average S&P 500 gain over the last 5 cycles was 36.8% (see chart for individual cycle gains).

Historically (going back to 1950), stocks fall about 20% into the mid-term (2018) low. The average S&P 500 loss from the preceding high to the mid-term low over the last 5 cycles was 18.41%. However, the 2002 loss was unusually large (34.54%). Excluding 2002, the average loss over the last 4 cycles was 14.38%.”

Barron's rates iSPYETF as "trader with a good track record" and Investor's Business Daily says: "When Simon says, the market listens." Find out why Barron's and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer's Profit Radar Report.

From the January high to the February low, the S&P 500 lost as much as 12.26%.

This is close to the average loss of 14.38% mentioned above.

Based on this seasonal pattern, we should be looking for two developments:

A buyable bottom

A multi-month rally

Continuous updates will be available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron's rated iSPYETF as a "trader with a good track record" (click here for Barron's profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.

There’s never been a time when articles on iSPYETF.com have been posted at the snail-pace of about one per month … until now.

Unless you are a stock picker, there’s simply been nothing worthwhile to write about.

The October 1 Profit Radar Report warned of just such a period of inactivity:

“The bullish Elliott Wave Theory count would see stocks grind higher for a number of weeks in a 2 steps forward, 1 step back pattern. A real unexciting, unstimulating and uninspiring grind higher to 2,600+/-. Unless the S&P drops below 2,500, this is now the most likely outcome.”

Barron's rates iSPYETF as "trader with a good track record" and Investor's Bussines Daily says "When Simon says, the market listens." Find out why Barron's and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer's Profit Radar Report.

This ‘real unexciting, unstimulating and uninspiring grind higher to 2,600+/-‘ has already lasted more than 7 weeks.

The Clearest Chart Right Now

One of the best tell-tale since during this 7-week period came from the Russell 2000. The chart and commentary below were published in the November 15 Profit Radar Report:

“The Russell 2000 is leaking lower. RSI-2 is now oversold with support around 1,452. The correction since the October 5 high looks like a wave 4. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (a common target for waves 4) is at 1,451.35 (just 3 points below today’s low). The R2K appears to be nearing a bounce, there’s even a possibility today’s low was a more sizeable low.”

Below is an updated Russell 2000 chart. Trade touched support around 1,450 on November 15, and rallied strongly. The minimum requirement for wave 5 is to reach new highs (which it already did), but the convergence of resistance levels around 1,542 (red oval) is the next most logical up side target (higher is also possible).

S&P 500 Update

The S&P 500 has basically reached our up side target around 2,600. The post-Thanksgiving week is seasonally weak, but as long as trade stays above 2,590, the S&P is likely to move towards the next resistance cluster around 2,650.

Continued analysis for the S&P 500, Russell 2000, gold, silver, euro, dollar and other equity indexes is provided via the Profit Radar Report.

The S&P 500 reached our minimum S&P 500 down side target and rallied strongly. Is this rally for real or are stocks just ‘churning for another burning’?

Bullish Signals

This week’s rally is credited to the French election, but a series of solid buy signals triggered days before the news from France.

The CBOE equity put/call ratio signaled a S&P 500 rally.

Contango and the VIX/VXV ratio signal a VIX decline.

The chart below - which plots the S&P 500 against the VIX, VIX/VXV ratio, CBOE equity put/call ratio, and contango – was published in the April 16 PRR along with the following commentary:

“The VIX/VXV ratio, equity put/call ratio and contango are at multi-month extremes.It appears like the amount of sellers left (needed to drive prices lower) is rather limited. The weight of evidence strongly suggests that we should focus on the upcoming buying opportunity, not on how much more down side may or may not be left.”

Barron's rates iSPYETF as "trader with a good track record" and Investor's Bussines Daily says "When Simon says, the market listens." Find out why Barron's and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer's Profit Radar Report.

The same Profit Radar Report also highlighted positive seasonality (see below).

Bearish Caveat

This bounce is in sync with seasonality and various buy signals, but will it last?

The April 9 PRR featured the yellow projection shown below. According to this scenario (based on Elliott Wave Theory), the S&P would reverse above 2,390 and fall to new lows (2,320 or below).

The S&P 500 is above 2,390 and has entered a price zone where a relapse becomes possible.

We will be watching various breadth, money flow, sentiment and technical indicators to determine whether this rally will stop here or not.

Continuous updates are available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron's rated iSPYETF as a "trader with a good track record" (click here for Barron's profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

The S&P 500 has reached the up side target zone highlighted in February and August/September 2016. Now what?

The August 28, 2016 PRR published the chart below and stated: “Elliott Wave Theory and the June breadth thrust suggest that any weakness will be bought (perhaps even furiously). We consider the longer-term up side potential to be significantly larger than the down side risk.”

Since the wave 2 pullback was on the shallow side, the dark green Elliott Wave Theory count (with wave 3 target around 2,390) became operative.

The September 5, 2016 Profit Radar Report said the following: “The chart below shows the long-term up side target purely based on projected symmetry. Based on the 1997 – 2013 trading range, the measured up side target is S&P 2,330 – 2,485, which is in the general vicinity of the 2,290 – 2,342 Fibonacci levels mentioned in the 2016 S&P 500 Forecast. Higher targets are possible, but we'll reassess once we get there.”

As the updated symmetry chart shows, “we are here!” Now what?

Stocks are at peak momentum (35-day RSI is at the highest level in 20+ years). As the Profit Radar Report highlighted many times in the past (most recently on December 14), stocks rarely ever top at peak momentum.

This means, we are not at a major market top. But the risk of a pullback is increasing. The latest Profit Radar Report shows the most likely spot for a pullback, along with the scope of any pullback.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron's rated iSPYETF as a "trader with a good track record" (click here for Barron's profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.