#$ctrp

Ctrip, $CTRP, has been moving higher since coming out of a base in February.  Then it pushed over the 50 and 20 day SMA's and started up.  The first resistance came later that month and it consolidated sideways until price ran into the 50 day SMA again.  Then it moved higher again in April to a top in June.  Another pullback to the 50 day SMA and it started higher again in July.  Now it is at the June high and looking ripe for another flight higher.

The RSI is in the bullish zone to support more upside price action.  The MACD is also rising and positive to support higher prices.  The Bollinger Bands® are opened to the upside as well.  A Measured Move higher would give a target to 63.25 on the next leg.  There is resistance at 58.50 and then free air above.  Support lower sits at 56.50 and 55.40 followed by 53.20 and 52.  Short interest is elevated at 7% and the company is expected to report earnings next on August 9th.

The options chains show open interest focused at 56 this week.  Next week it is biggest at 57 on the Put side.  The August 11th chain, the first after the earnings report, is light but has biggest open interest at the 57 Call strike.  The August monthly chain also has biggest open interest below at the 55 strike, but some size at 60 on the call side as well.  Finally the September chain has biggest open interest at the 50 Put strike.  Takeaway: options traders are surprised it is trading this high.

Ctrip, Ticker: $CTRP

Trade Idea 1:  Buy the stock on a move over 58.50 with a stop at 56.

Trade Idea 2:  Buy the stock on a move over 58.50 with a August 11 Expiry 58/55 Put Spread ($1.50) for protection through earnings and selling an August 60 Call ($1.05) to fund most of the cost of protection.

Trade Idea 3:  Buy the September 55/60 bullish Risk Reversal (60 cents).

Trade Idea 4:  Buy the August 4 Expiry/August 60 Call Calendar (90 cents) and sell the August 4 Expiry 56.50 Put (65 cents) to lower the cost.

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with July Options Expiry and 1 full week of earnings behind them, sees the Index ETF’s looking strong and ready to move higher.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue in its uptrend while Crude Oil pulls back lower in the short run within the longer term drift higher. The US Dollar Index continues to weaken and move lower while US Treasuries strengthen and move higher. The Shanghai Composite continues to drift up while Emerging Markets move higher with strength.

Technical analysis of major US ETFs and some individual stock names.

Each week Forcerank runs a variety of games covering different industries. What we have found, is that the lowest ranked companies in their respective games deliver the biggest negative price movement and vice versa for those in the top position. This week we look at a list of companies that are consistently at the bottom or trending lower in their respective games. To receive the rest of the rankings, visit the Forcerank Blog or sign up for next week’s contests and we will send you the consensus data Monday morning.

Panera (PNRA) | Restaurants: This year has been a difficult one for the fast casual industry which continues to lose market share to fast food and casual dining establishments. Panera has shared in the industry wide downturn despite a series of better than expected earnings reports. The 7% gains that Panera stock made this year pales in comparison to the 11% jump by the S&P 500. Shares should continue to see increasing downside driven by bearish support from technical indicators. A drop to negative territory by On Balance Volume couples with a bearish crossover in the MACD both support negative price action in the coming days/weeks. Meanwhile basic gap trading would view the gap at $202 as a 3% downside from its current trading price.

GoPro (GPRO) | Hardware: What’s a list of potential losers without GoPro or Fitbit. Needless to say, GoPro is one of the most beaten down stocks in recent months, owing to a disastrous third quarter that missed analysts’ targets by a wide margin but also featured reduced management guidance for the key holiday months. It's clear that the Karma Drone and Hero 5, GoPro’s newest products, aren’t living up to their lofty expectations. Forcerank users remain bearish on the stock, pushing its average user rank lower and lower each week. This week the action camera maker sports a rank of 8.1, which is quite possibly the worst grade in the history of Forcerank. Most of the downside continues to be supported by a breakdown in its technicals. Last week was capped off with the 200 day moving average taking over the 50 day average while on balance volume turned negative. Throughout its downturn, the stock has breached multiple important support levels.

VMware (VMW) | Large Enterprise Software: The Forcerank community continues to believe VMware will retrace the gains made after reporting sound third quarter results. In that time, VMware also partnered with Amazon and received several bullish analyst upgrades. Shares have stayed in the upper Bollinger band for over a month now, reflecting overbought conditions. Additionally the stock’s 3 months volume profile is consistent with $73 per share or 9% downside from its current trading price. Given VMware’s robust underlying fundamentals, the potential negative momentum may not be long lived but should still be considered by investors or traders.

Ctrip (CTRP) | Ecommerce: Travel services in China are expected to be one of the fastest growing industries in the region but that hasn’t helped Ctrip investors. The stock is down 10% in the past 3 months on a number of weak earnings reports. In two of the past 3 quarters the Chinese travel agency posted a quarterly loss over 15 cents per share. Shares still continue to trade at 105 times future earnings, a difficult measure to justify given its weak underlying fundamentals. In addition to weak financial performance, Ctrip operates in an increasingly competitive space that includes Alibaba and Baidu.

Skechers (SKX) | Apparel: It wasn’t long ago that Skechers stock jumped 20% in a single week and now the shoemaker ranks in the bottom three of the apparel game. Fundamentally speaking, Skechers still remains challenged given the evolving retail environment and increasing competition from Nike and Under Armour. The Estimize community believes the fourth quarter will extend its losing streak to three consecutive misses. In the meantime the stock should retrace some of its gains from the week prior with shares well beyond overbought territory.

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Photo Credit: samantha celera

Each week Forcerank runs a variety of games covering different industries. What we have found, is that the lowest ranked companies in their respective games deliver the biggest negative price movement and vice versa for those in the top position. This week we look at a list of companies that are consistently at the bottom or trending lower in their respective games. To receive the rest of the rankings, visit the Forcerank Blog or sign up for next week’s contests and we will send you the consensus data Monday morning.

Amazon (AMZN) | Hardware: It’s difficult to imagine Amazon on a list of losers regardless of what the situation might be but this week Forcerank users dropped the retailers avg ranking from 1.7 to 4.1. Amazon still ranks highly in the hardware contest but such a large drop in average ranking signals near term volatility. At $760 per share some investors have grown concerned that Amazon can’t sustain trading at 175 times TTM earnings. The stock also took a beating recently following Trump’s shocking election victory. Amazon’s CEO, Jeff Bezos, and President Elect Trump haven’t seen eye to eye but the main concern is how Trump approaches trade policy. Any restrictive tariffs or embargoes will put pressure on Amazon’s operations around the world. From a technical standpoint the recent losing streak spurred a bearish crossover in the MACD along with the 50 day moving average eclipsing the short term 20 day average.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) | Restaurants: Unlike Amazon, Chipotle has a home on the list of weekly losers. The burrito chain continues to suffer from its many health outbreaks that started over a year ago. Meanwhile, the fast casual space has become increasingly crowded with newcomers like Shake Shack and lesser known private companies. The stock should continue to see greater downside risk if it can’t correct underlying business fundamentals. A technical breakdown  also points to weak price action including a MACD on the verge of a bearish crossover and relatively soft volume growth.

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) | Semiconductors: Shares of the chipmaker have soared in recent months following the early success of the new iPhone 7. Now that consumers and the market is less enamored with the phone it's time for Skyworks to return its gains. A bearish crossover of the 20 day average along with the MACD inching closer to negative territory and its own bearish crossover intimates a downturn on the horizon. Forcerank users consistently rank Skyworks in the middle of the semiconductors contest despite some glaring weaknesses in its charts.

Yelp (YELP) | Social Media: Early this week one analyst at Macquarie reiterated a buy rating on Yelp citing greater monetization possibilities through advertising and paid leads. Forcerank users, on the other hand, don’t share Macquarie’s optimistic and have ranked Yelp at the bottom of this week’s social media contest. At one point Yelp was a clear leader in the business review space but Facebook’s emergence in the space, along with other heavy hitters, poses a serious threat to its business fundamentals. Investors should also be concerned about Yelp’s over inflated valuation. At about $37 per share, the stock is trading at over 50 times forward earnings, a tough value to justify given its recent struggles.

Ctrip (CTRP) | Ecommerce: Travel services in China are expected to be one of the fastest growing industries in the region but that hasn’t helped Ctrip investors. The stock is down 10% in the past 3 months on a number of weak earnings reports. In two of the past 3 quarters the Chinese travel agency posted a quarterly loss over 15 cents per share. Shares still continue to trade at 105 times future earnings, a difficult measure to justify given its weak underlying fundamentals. In addition to weak financial performance, Ctrip operates in an increasingly competitive space that includes Alibaba and Baidu.

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Photo Credit: Scott Lewis

Priceline (PCLN): The travel industry was handed a gift this earnings season starting with strong reports from the airlines and continuing through Expedia and Las Vegas sands results in the past week. Priceline along with the hotel chains are next on deck and expectations are edging higher on this encouraging news. The online travel booking market is a two horse race between Expedia and Priceline that is coming down to who can make the most acquisitions and consolidate the market. Priceline currently has the upperhand overseas with a number of partnerships including a lucrative investment in Ctrip while Expedia dominates North American markets. A recent deal with Booking.com will help the former expand in domestic markets. As always, near term threats to travel trends such as terrorist attacks and currency headwinds along with the rising presence of Airbnb could hamper results.

Marriott International (MAR): Marriott is likely to benefit for the very same reasons as Priceline. Increasing travel demand along with continued expansion are expected to boost the quarter's results. Its recent acquisition of Starwood Resorts makes Marriott the largest hotel operator in the world and provides a huge new layer of revenue. Revisions activity has been muted despite all these positive initiatives. Fortunately estimates are calling for a 20% increase on the bottom line and 11% on the bottom, reflecting a significant improvements from previous quarters. Marriott is also susceptible to many of the near term headwinds threatening Priceline and the rest of the travel industry.

Align Technology (ALGN): Align is emerging as a popular alternative to traditional orthodontic treatment used with teens. The recently launched Invisalign G7 is expected to better facilitate tooth movement in young patients. Tying technology with dental care has propelled earnings potential in recent quarters. Align recently introduced a new treatment software that will provide a more realistic 3D visual mode to compare treatment plans. The technology is not only more cost effective but will minimize margins of error. Expectations are edging higher on these new initiatives with analysts now calling for a 60% increase in earnings and 32% in sales.

New Relic (NEWR): As has been the case with most new IPOs, New Relic has had its struggles in recent quarters. Decelerating revenue and consistent losses have led to nearly 20%decline in share prices in the past 12 months. The stock has largely recovered those losses in the past 6 months and is only down 4% since its IPO. Expectations for the quarter to be reported are largely consistent with the recent trends. Analysts are calling for a 9% increase on the bottom line and 46% on the top, reflecting a stark slow down from prior reports. As the company continues to expand and release new products that harness the power of cloud computing, earnings growth and share prices will likely follow. We are still too early though in the maturation process to know where the long term outlook is heading.

AMC Entertainment (AMC): The entertainment side of the company has its investment in theatres in the U.S. and internationally. Its active investments in improving theatres with better quality seats, improved food and overall renovations are expected to help drive traffic. Furthermore, AMC and Dolby recently signed a strategic partnership that would bring Dolby Cinema sounds to 100 AMC locations by the end of 2017. After the initial 100 projects are completed the two companies are likely to extend the relationship to additional AMC locations around the United States. Nonetheless AMC still faces a number of imminent threats included macroeconomic uncertainty and volatile consumer spending.

See the video below for updates on SPY, QQQ, IWM, AAPL, SMH, CTRP, TSLA, NTNX, TWLO and more.

Each week Forcerank runs a variety of games covering different industries. What we have found, is that the lowest ranked companies in their respective games deliver the biggest negative price movement and vice versa for those in the top position. This week we look at a list of companies that are consistently at the bottom of their respective games. They include Intel, eBay, Zendesk, Symantec and Match Group.

Intel (INTC) | Semiconductors: Intel shares have edged down after the company gave slightly disappointing guidance, despite reporting an earnings beat this past week. The chipmaker said it expects $15.7 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter against analyst’s forecast of $15.87 billion in revenue. Shares are now down 7% in the past 5 days and are showing signs of making further losses. It started with a bearish crossover in the MACD in early October that was aggravated by the third quarter report. Share prices are currently below the 20 and 50 day moving average as it approaches the longer term 200 day average. Its volume profile for the year indicates that the stock is more consistently priced near $32, about $3 below where its trading today.

eBay (EBAY)| Ecommerce: The online marketplace plunged in the rankings this week after management issued a weak Q4 outlook following its recent earnings report. Average user ranks dropped from 5.2 to 6.59 this week on weak guidance and in anticipation of further declines. This is now the third lowest ranked company just ahead of Ctrip and Groupon.  Shortly following its report we saw a massive selloff that spurred a bearish crossover in its 20 and 50 day moving average and also the MACD. The stock’s one year volume profile is consistent with a $24 price point, nearly $5 below its current trading price. Beyond technicals, eBay is still fundamentally challenged. Growth remains threatened by heavy competition, particularly the growing dominance of online retailer Amazon.

Zendesk (ZEN) | Small Enterprise Software: Zendesk’s freefall started almost 2 weeks ago and has yet to taper. Shares are down almost 11% in the past 30 days as many of its technicals edge down. Current share prices are well below its 20 and 50 day averages as it pushes towards the long term average. Forcerank users have maintained its pessimism over this month, continually pushing the stock down the ranks each week. Zendesk is now the worst ranked stock in the small enterprise software contest, below perennial losers in Box and Tableau.

Symantec (SYMC) | Large Enterprise Software: The cyber security sector was dealt a few major blows this month. The first matter came after Fortinet warned that demand for digital protection is slowing down. More recently the DDoS attack exposed a huge hole with security providers. The attack shut down many popular websites and perhaps proved that these companies aren’t prepared for a wide scale attack. Shares of Symantec were trending lower following the disruption but have since recovered. Forcerank users are still not confident that the stock will continue its year long surge especially as earnings estimates edge down ahead of its report.

Match Group (MTCH) | Social Media: All signs are pointing to a broader pullback from the dating consortium that has jumped over 40% in 2016. Fundamentally the company remains challenged given its weak revenue model. Many of the dating apps hosting by Match Group offer a free service that is enough to satisfy users. The company must expand its brand to support sustainable top and bottom line. Its technicals might look even worse than the fundamentals. The stock is clearly overbought with a relative strength index just below 80, the benchmark that typically triggers a large sell off. Additionally, its volume profile for the past 6 months is consistent with a $16 stock price, over 15% below its current trading price. A trend down towards this price would fill a gap formed at $18 that has yet to be filled. Forcerank users are confident that a downturn is coming shortly and have ranked the dating group in the bottom 3 for multiple weeks.

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Photo Credit: Alice Bevan–McGregor

Welcome to Forcerank research notes! Every week we will be giving you an inside peek at the consensus rankings for certain contests, analyzing results from past weeks, as well as reporting on any large shifts in the consensus or trends we are noticing.

Not familiar with Forcerank?

Forcerank is a mobile app that lets you to test your trading strategies against other investors in a completely new way—on a level playing field.

It does that by boiling the stock market down to one simple question: will the price of stock ABC outperform stock XYZ this week? The best investors in the world strive to generate positive returns without exposing themselves to the wild swings of the market—using "market neutral" strategies based on the ability to identify outperformers and underperformers. Forcerank is designed to elevate those investors most skilled at this, acting as a proving ground for them to test their picks before they use them in the market. In each weekly contest, competitors are given 10 stocks to "Forcerank" by expected performance. So far we have found this data to be extremely predictive of actual weekly results.

In this week’s e-commerce game, we’ve asked competitors to rank Amazon, Priceline, Ctrip, Alibaba, Mercadolibre, Netflix, JD.com, eBay, Expedia, Groupon. In the chart below you can see the consensus ranking for each of these, as well the ranking from last week and actual results.

This week we’re seeing some interesting trends in Amazon, Priceline, Netflix and Groupon.

1. Amazon.com (AMZN): Amazon continues its upward momentum this week, topping the ecommerce game for a second straight week. A new peak in the On Balance Volume (OBV) technical indicator would suggest the stock still has room to run. Its 20 and 50 day moving averages remain well above its 200 day average with no signs of the gap closing any time soon. Retail strength this earnings season should bode well for Amazon in future quarters. Meanwhile, Amazon’s market share in the cloud computing space is only getting larger. The combination of this and improving retail sector will carry the stock to new heights

2. Priceline (PCLN): Users are rethinking where Priceline should fall after it posted the biggest gains of all 10 ecommerce names in last week’s contest. The stock got a bump after Evercore ISI upgraded the name to a buy, citing “ scale advantage, execution track record, and value” as well as deep penetration in Europe. Shares continue to trade above its 20 day moving average thanks a recent batch of upgrades and strong volume. This week the online travel agency takes the second spot with contributors looking for a repeat performance.

3. Ctrip.com (CTRP)

4. Alibaba (BABA)

5. Mercadolibre (MELI)

6. Netflix (NFLX): Average user rankings for the company have steadily declined over the past 4 weeks. In that time UBS downgraded the stock from buy to neutral. The news was enough to drop shares $10 and down in the Forcerank consensus rankings. Shares have since recovered and are currently trading in line with its volume profile. Netflix’s days as one of the highly touted FANG stocks are likely behind them but don’t expect this stock to slip past mediocrity. Recent deals with Comcast, CBS, and the runaway success of its newest series Stranger Things should help keep the stock afloat. Furthermore a move to more hotel rooms could provide Netflix with a new source of revenue and subscription growth.

7. JD.com (JD)

8. eBay (EBAY)

9. Expedia (EXPE)

10. Groupon (GRPN): After strong quarterly results that sent shares soaring over 20%, it appears as if the stock is now overbought. Today, Groupon doesn’t look like the bargain it was 6 months ago. Despite a bounceback in the stock the company is still unprofitable and continues to post flat to negative sales growth. New management has done a good job exiting unprofitable markets and driving the stock with promising future guidance. However its current fundamentals have to improve to justify trading at this valuation. There is still a huge gap to be filled at $4 which is where Groupon appears to be headed. Last week this was the biggest loser, declining over 4%, and appears to be on pace to maintain that position.

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