#$post

What a week so far and there is still one more day to go.  As we head into the weekend the market looks to have bounced.  A solid day Friday will confirm that and those who never looked at their accounts will wonder what all the fuss was about.  

As markets get back toward last week levels there are some winners and some big winner as well as some stocks looking to take leadership.  In my analysis I have been working with a proprietary scan for upside trades and it had been giving great results until the fall.  With the fall it had dropped to 2 names that were both disqualified for being involved with merger talks.  But with Thursday's bounce one that had been on the list for a while popped back on today.

Post Holdings ($POST), makers of Raisin Bran and Honey Bunches of Oats Cereal among other things.  The company sounds kind of boring but the stock price has been anything but that.  The chart above shows the price break above resistance in June and then hover in a tight consolidation.  That ended in the beginning of August as it jumped and started a move higher.

Reaching 66.25 it started to pullback and the market stalled and reversed.  But the pullback did not even get below the 20 day SMA before bouncing Thursday.  The reversal sets up a target of 75.75.  So it is back in the scan list.  It is turning back higher.  

The momentum indicators are turning with the RSI moving back higher and the MACD stopping the decline.  And it now has a natural stop loss level near the 20 day SMA and lows from the pullback this week.  Time to buy some cereal.

Tourbillon Capital Partners Lp returns an estimated 9.21% for May 2015 - the fully hedged version returns 7.51%

Tourbillon Capital Partners Lp generated a 9.21% return on their publicly disclosed long portfolio for the month ending May 2015, outperforming the S&P500 by 920 basis points (bps). On a hedged basis, the portfolio would have returned 7.51% StockAlpha over the same period. Tourbillon's StockAlpha reflects the net return if each security in their portfolio was hedged with a sector ETF, such that the resulting portfolio was market, beta and sector neutral. StockAlpha in the Tech sector contributed the most to StockAlpha during the month.

Positive Contributors to Tourbillon's Returns

Tourbillon’s position in Expedia Inc. (New) (EXPE) contributed the most to the performance of the manager’s long-portfolio during the month. Over the month of May 2015, Tourbillon's 12.7% position in Expedia Inc. (New) (EXPE) increased in value by 14%, contributing 1.78% (12.7%*14%=1.78%)to the long portfolios overall return. Looking at Tourbillon's portfolio through a fully hedged StockAlpha lens, the holding of Expedia Inc. (New) (EXPE) also provided the largest contribution to fully hedged returns. Expedia Inc. (New) (EXPE) returned 14% during the month compared to the Tech sector, which returned 1.9%. As a result, after taking into account Expedia Inc. (New) (EXPE)'s beta relative to its sector, the position contributed 1.5% of StockAlpha to the Tourbillon’s monthly performance.

Negative Contributors to Tourbillon's Returns

Much of the drag on Tourbillon’s long-portfolio during the month can be attributed to the holding of Tumi Holdings Inc (TUMI). Over the month of May 2015, the manager's 1.7% position in Tumi Holdings Inc (TUMI) returned -16.7%, contributing -0.28% (1.7%*-16.7%=-0.28%)to the long portfolios overall return. Looking at Tourbillon's portfolio through a fully hedged StockAlpha lens, the holding of Post Holdings Inc (POST) provided the most negative contribution to fully hedged returns. Post Holdings Inc (POST) returned -7.9% during the month compared to the Cons. Staples sector, which returned 0.9%. As a result, the position contributed -0.3% of StockAlpha to the manager’s monthly performance.

Overlap with other hedge funds

It's a great routine to sit down with a bowl of cereal while watching SportsCenter (which is a profit machine for Mickey Mouse?!?!)

But which box are you reaching for?  More importantly-- which company's stock is the beneficiary of your decision?

In the cereal world, there are basically 3 players.  General Mills, Kellogg and Post.  (Fun fact:  Kellogg and Post are both based in Battle Creek, Michigan AKA "The Cereal Capital of the World") At LikeFolio, we look at things through the lens of social media data.  Which brands are resonating with consumers, and which are being left behind?  We then watch for social clues of shifts in consumer behavior that can lead to profitable investment opportunities. So we decided to do a little tasty research on the top cereal makers to see which one consumers are reaving about the most:

Kellogg ($K):

You don't get to a $23.5 billion market cap and a 12% profit in the food business unless you offer stuff that people love. And boy do we love our Kellogg breakfasts!

With over 88% positive sentiment, people are taking to twitter to talk about the glory that is their Pop Tarts, Frosted Flakes and Special K cereals.

Data from TD Ameritrade Social Tab

General Mills ($GIS):

Much more than just a cereal company, General Mills is the biggest player here, logging an enormous $32 billion market cap and profit margin of 8.5%.  But as far as twitter goes, they might as well be purely in the cereal business, because that's all anyone can talk about (Who can blame them?)

Once again, positive sentiment on social media is great, at 86%, but it's the revival of Cinnamon Toast Crunch that has everyone talking online.  Lucky Charms and Cheerios get tons of play online, but are just trying to keep up with this kind of love:

Post Holdings ($POST):

At "just" $2.14 billion and losing money, Post is the kid brother in this group.  But don't let their smaller size fool you... they've got a secret weapon in their arsenal:  Fruity Pebbles.

With nearly 3,000 tweets per week about Fruity Pebbles, and over 90% of all tweets about all Post brands being positive mentions... you've got to give them some serious credit.  They're making a cereal that is absolutely adored.   Post also make Bran Flakes-- which get 90 tweets per week, proving that people will tweet about pretty much anything.

And the winner is....

Clearly, we have to go with General Mills.  Their positive sentiment score is a very respectable 86% while boasting three of the five most tweeted about cereal brands, including the most tweeted-about, king of comebacks, absolutely delicious Cinnamon Toast Crunch.

Is there a trade here on this data?  Probably not.   But we've always got our eye out for unusual changes in the data to dig into, so establishing a baseline of "what's normal" is extremely important.  

For example, if you see POST positive sentiment drop along with volume while others in the category rise-- that could be yet another data point that their money-losing ways aren't over.

After several days/weeks of volatile equity trading, where 3% swings have been the “norm”, major averages were steadily higher, with the S&P, NASDAQ and Russell gaining, though the Dow Industrials lagged given a weaker earnings/guidance report from component IBM (The Dow did recover from a 120 point loss earlier).

All in all quiet news flow (calm before storm most likely with about 20% of S&P co.’s reporting this week) in both equity, currency and bond markets (no economic data today either) on light volumes. Some key earnings tonight from AAPL, CMG, TXN, and STLD…tomorrow morning from KO, HOG, KMB, MCD, OMC, UTX, LMT, VZ, MAN, ITW, and RAI. Asia was strong overnight (Nikkei was up 4%, while Europe ended near the lows (DAX -1.5%).

New Post has been published on http://www.devtoolsplus.com/how-to-disable-post-revisions-in-wordpress/

How to Disable Post Revisions in WordPress

One of the new features rolled out in WordPress involved post revisions. Revisions are a way for users to keep a working collection of each different version of a post and then revert back to it in the future if necessary. Some people think this is the greatest thing since lightsabers, others (such as myself) find it to be a royal pain in the database. It convolutes the Admin area, gobbles up disk space, and usually doesn’t work as intended. Fortunately, we can disable this amazing new “feature” (which should NOT have been included in the core) by adding the following line to the wp-config.php file:

/* disable post-revisioning nonsense */ define('WP_POST_REVISIONS', FALSE);

Just place that line above the “Happy blogging” comment and say goodbye to needless revisioning bloat.

You can Limit WordPress Post Revisions following our another post “How to Limit WordPress Post Revisions“.