#$pcln

Docter Jan L (Director) has executed an insider transaction in PCLN . A total of 1200 were in Sell transaction. The trade happened at 1764.52. The stock current price is 1763.4. The transaction was reported on Sell The pattern and the details of insider transaction in PCLN can be observed belowInsider Sell PCLN04008001,2001,6002,0002,4002,8003,2003,6004,0002016-11-16 17:26:182016-12-02…

With the success and proven superiority of crowdsourced corporate earnings and revenue estimates and economic indicator estimates here at Estimize, the grander plan was always to apply this theory to other important financial data sets. Today we are excited to announce the launch of one of those new efforts with Estimize Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). As avid earnings-watchers know, for many companies it’s not just earnings and revenue figures that company stocks trade on, but things such as iPhone sales for Apple, subscriber numbers for Netflix, and monthly active user (MAUs) for some of the social media names such as Facebook and Twitter.

We kick off our KPI collection with those and 40 other household names.  Start contributing your estimates for KPIs of companies that have yet to report this season: 

Apple - iPhone Sales, iPad Sales, Mac Sales, Gross Margins

Salesforce - Deferred Revenue

GoPro - Units Shipped

Grubhub - Active Diners

Intel - Gross Margins

Michael Kors - Same Store Sales

Lululemon - Same Store Sales

Lowe’s - Same Store Sales

Nvdia - Gross Margins

Qualcomm - Gross Margins

Palo Alto Networks - Billings

Starbucks - Same Store Sales

Square - Total Payment Volume

Tesla - Deliveries

Under Armour - Gross Margins

DaVita - Dialysis Treatments

Teva Pharmaceuticals - Generic Medicine Revenue

Humana - Retail MLR

Electronic Arts - Digital Net Sales

FireEye - Billings

Amazon - AWS Revenue, CSOI

Priceline - Total Bookings, Room Nights Growth

Match Group - Total Paid Memberships

Snap - Average Revenue Per User, Daily Active Users

Twitter - Monthly Active Users

Yelp - Local Ad Revs, Local Ad Accounts

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Commerce Bancshares, Ticker: $CBSH

Commerce Bancshares, $CBSH, jumped quickly following the election but then stalled. It has traded in a range between 53 and 58 ever since. In May the 200 day SMA caught up to up and it started higher from there in early June. Last week it moved higher to resistance after a retest at the 50 day SMA. The RSI is in the bullish zone and the MACD about to cross up. Look for a push through resistance to participate higher.....

Capital One Financial, Ticker: $COF

Capital One Financial, $COF, pulled back from a top at the beginning of March finding support in April. It has risen since then in a channel and last week returned to the 200 day SMA. The RSI is about to enter the bullish zone while the MACD is rising and positive. Look for continuation to participate higher.....

Deere, Ticker: $DE

Deere, $DE, started moving higher in September 2016. It gapped up in November and then slowed to pace of advance as it moved into a sideways consolidation. But then a second gap up in May brought the stock to a peak and it started to pullback 2 weeks ago. Last week saw the pullback round out and Friday ended with a move higher. The RSI is holding at the mid line, in the bullish zone, while the MACD is falling. Look for continuation higher to participate to the upside.....

Priceline, Ticker: $PCLN

Priceline, $PCLN, started higher in January, and it ran through to the beginning of March. From there it consolidated for 2 months before a break higher that peaked in early May. Since then it has been consolidating in a tightening range. Last week saw it at the top of the range with the RSI holding over the mid line and the MACD level but positive. Look for a push up out of consolidation to participate.....

Wright Medical Group, Ticker: $WMGI

Wright Medical Group, $WMGI, started higher out of consolidation in January. It continued higher, reaching a top in April and then started a retracement. It found support in June as it touched the 200 day SMA. Last week the consolidation continued until it started to move higher Friday and closed at the 50 day SMA for the first time since May 1st. The RSI is rising and now over the mid line with the MACD moving up as well. Look for continuation to participate higher....

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which after tying up the second quarter and heading into the Fourth of July Holiday Weekend, sees equities have held up well, but with a first crack in the armor for the QQQ.

Elsewhere look for Gold to consolidate sideways while Crude Oil continues higher short term. The US Dollar Index is weak and looks to continue lower while US Treasuries are also biased lower after a reversal. The Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets are biased to the upside with risk that Emerging Markets may continue to consolidate in the short run.

Last week I offered some trading ideas for Priceline ($PCLN) ahead of its earnings report Tuesday night here. Below is an analysis of how they played out and what steps a trader in each would have made. The stock closed at Expiry Friday at a price of 1818.18. Here were the trade ideas:

Trade Idea 1: Buy the May 12 Expiry 1900/1850/1830 broken wing Put Spread for $16.

Trade Idea 2: Buy the May 12 Expiry 1910/1925 Call Spread ($9) and sell the May 12 Expiry 1815 Puts for free.

Trade Idea 3: Buy the May 12 Expiry/June 2000 Call Calendar ($16) and sell the May 12 Expiry/June 1850 Put Calendar ($14 credit) for $2.

Trade Idea 4: Sell the May 12 Expiry 1800/2000 Strangle for $14 credit.

The first trade was a bearish trade, buying a 1900 strike put and a 1830 strike put, and then selling 2 of the 1850 strike puts. All had last Friday Expiry. This trade cost $16 to put on. With a move down to 18.18 the price was below all three strikes. This made for closing price of $82 on the 1900 put, $32 on the 1850 put, and $12 on the 1830 put. This combination was worth $30 at Friday's close. No action was required as your broker would auto-executed each leg, two shorts and two close outs, and end up putting $30 in your account for a gain of 87.5%.

The second trade was a bullish trade, buying a 1910 strike call and selling a 1925 strike call and a 1815 strike put all for last Friday's expiration. This cost no money to put on as the put sale proceeds offset the call spread cost. At a price of 1818 Friday each leg of this combination expired worthless. A break even trade. A trader would have lost transaction costs and been charged for margin usage for 4 days.

The third trade was a bullish trade buying a 2000 strike call for June expiration and selling last week's 2000 strike call. It also gave protection buying a 1850 strike put for last week expiration and sell a June expiration 1850 strike put. This 4 option combination gave a $2 credit to enter. At 1818 Friday, the May 2000 call expired worthless, but the May 1850 put was worth $32. A trader would have sold that put for $32. They would also continue to hold a June 2000 call and be short a June 1850 put. With Priceline moving higher Monday the trader can continue to hold these looking for a rebound above 1850 before June expiration, roll the short Puts down to a lower strike and out further to gain more time and price cushion, or could accept a loss of about $47 ($13 when netted against the $32 gain and the $2 credit to put the trade on).

The fourth trade was non-directional, selling both a 1800 strike put and a 2000 strike call that expired last Friday. This trade gave a $14 credit to enter. With the price at 1818 Friday both legs expired worthless and required no action. The trader would keep the full $14.

Priceline.com Incorporated (PCLN) Consumer Discretionary - Internet & Catalog Retail | Reports February 27, Before Market Opens

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings per share of $13.34 on $2.35 billion in revenue, nearly 30 cents higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and $20 million on the top

Priceline’s sheer presence to international markets exposes financial performance to currency headwinds, future EU exits and other macroeconomic uncertainty

Long term, Priceline’s investment in Ctrip provides it access to the hot travel market in China

What are you expecting for PCLN? Get your estimate in here!

Priceline prepares to announce fourth quarter results Monday afternoon with relatively tepid expectations compared to previous reports. Analyst at Estimize expect earnings to of $13.34 per share, roughly 6% higher than the same period last year. That estimate dropped by 2% in the past 3 months due to ongoing weakness from other travel companies like Expedia. Forecasts predict revenue will increase 17% to $2.35 billion, marking 4 consecutive quarters of double digit sales growth.

The stock continues to trudge higher despite concerns of a pullback in financial performance heading to the new fiscal year. In the past 3 months the stock increased by 8%, whereas Expedia declined by 5%. Historically the stock ticks up 1% immediately through the print and increases another 1% in the month following a report. In the third quarter Priceline recorded gross travel bookings of $18.5 billion, reflecting a 25% increase from a year earlier. Gross profit made similar gains, increasing 22% to $3.6 billion with a significant portion coming from expanding international operations. Net income, on the other hand, suffered a 58% decline owing to nearly $1 billion impairment charge relating to OpenTable. In general, the company appears to be in good financial standing as it continues to grow into different travel channels.

As for Q4, Priceline expects to see similar growth across room nights booked, total gross bookings and profits on strong domestic and international travel volume. China remains a hot destination for travel companies to carve out a foothold as the economy shifts to a consumer driven one. The company’s investment in Chinese travel company Ctrip and the handful of acquisitions made in recent years will be an important source of revenue moving forward.

Another emerging trend originates in the alternative accommodations segment, popularly referred to as the sharing economy. Both Priceline and Expedia bolstered their presence in this sector to more effectively compete with Airbnb. There is still room to grow here, but if Airbnb gets any bigger it could spell trouble.

Priceline still faces pressure from ongoing currency headwinds and macroeconomic uncertainty especially throughout Europe and the United Kingdom. Any additional downturn in the Euro or Pound would be a difficult blow to weather for the company which generated two thirds of its revenue from the region. Do you think PCLN can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

TripAdvisor (TRIP): Stronger travel trends are emerging as evidenced by robust results from the airlines, Expedia, Las Vegas Sands and Priceline this earnings season. This should bode well for often beaten down TripAdvisor. Shares are down 25% in 2016 on 2 consecutive weaker than expected quarterly results. TripAdvisor operates in a very competitive online travel agency market that is largely a two horse race between Expedia and Priceline. TRIP is beginning to close the gap though with the acquisition of CityMaps and a new more user friendly website. Expectations have still edged lower in the past 3 months with analysts calling for flat earnings growth and a 6% increase on the top line.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ): Jazz Pharmaceuticals along with the rest of the healthcare industry have suffered a down year heading into this pivotal election. Shares of Jazz are down nearly 25% in the past 12 months on a string of weaker than expected financial results. Its key products should continue to gain traction but that will be offset by near term headwinds such as supply chain disruptions, patent litigations and an overall downturn in the industry. Analysts at Estimize still believe Jazz can deliver a slight improvement from the prior quarter with a 7% increase on the bottom line and 15% on the top.

Priceline (PCLN): The travel industry was handed a gift this earnings season starting with strong reports from the airlines and continuing through Expedia and Las Vegas sands results in the past week. Priceline along with the hotel chains are next on deck and expectations are edging higher on this encouraging news. The online travel booking market is a two horse race between Expedia and Priceline that is coming down to who can make the most acquisitions and consolidate the market. Priceline currently has the upperhand overseas with a number of partnerships including a lucrative investment in Ctrip while Expedia dominates North American markets. A recent deal with Booking.com will help the former expand in domestic markets. As always, near term threats to travel trends such as terrorist attacks and currency headwinds along with the rising presence of Airbnb could hamper results.

Marriott International (MAR): Marriott is likely to benefit for the very same reasons as Priceline. Increasing travel demand along with continued expansion are expected to boost the quarter's results. Its recent acquisition of Starwood Resorts makes Marriott the largest hotel operator in the world and provides a huge new layer of revenue. Revisions activity has been muted despite all these positive initiatives. Fortunately estimates are calling for a 20% increase on the bottom line and 11% on the bottom, reflecting a significant improvements from previous quarters. Marriott is also susceptible to many of the near term headwinds threatening Priceline and the rest of the travel industry.

Align Technology (ALGN): Align is emerging as a popular alternative to traditional orthodontic treatment used with teens. The recently launched Invisalign G7 is expected to better facilitate tooth movement in young patients. Tying technology with dental care has propelled earnings potential in recent quarters. Align recently introduced a new treatment software that will provide a more realistic 3D visual mode to compare treatment plans. The technology is not only more cost effective but will minimize margins of error. Expectations are edging higher on these new initiatives with analysts now calling for a 60% increase in earnings and 32% in sales.

New Relic (NEWR): As has been the case with most new IPOs, New Relic has had its struggles in recent quarters. Decelerating revenue and consistent losses have led to nearly 20%decline in share prices in the past 12 months. The stock has largely recovered those losses in the past 6 months and is only down 4% since its IPO. Expectations for the quarter to be reported are largely consistent with the recent trends. Analysts are calling for a 9% increase on the bottom line and 46% on the top, reflecting a stark slow down from prior reports. As the company continues to expand and release new products that harness the power of cloud computing, earnings growth and share prices will likely follow. We are still too early though in the maturation process to know where the long term outlook is heading.

AMC Entertainment (AMC): The entertainment side of the company has its investment in theatres in the U.S. and internationally. Its active investments in improving theatres with better quality seats, improved food and overall renovations are expected to help drive traffic. Furthermore, AMC and Dolby recently signed a strategic partnership that would bring Dolby Cinema sounds to 100 AMC locations by the end of 2017. After the initial 100 projects are completed the two companies are likely to extend the relationship to additional AMC locations around the United States. Nonetheless AMC still faces a number of imminent threats included macroeconomic uncertainty and volatile consumer spending.