#$trip

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I was born in 1924

Oh no, it's on tonight

Baby, you don’t have to rush

She got a body like an hourglass

Priceline.com Incorporated (PCLN) Consumer Discretionary - Internet & Catalog Retail | Reports February 27, Before Market Opens

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings per share of $13.34 on $2.35 billion in revenue, nearly 30 cents higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and $20 million on the top

Priceline’s sheer presence to international markets exposes financial performance to currency headwinds, future EU exits and other macroeconomic uncertainty

Long term, Priceline’s investment in Ctrip provides it access to the hot travel market in China

What are you expecting for PCLN? Get your estimate in here!

Priceline prepares to announce fourth quarter results Monday afternoon with relatively tepid expectations compared to previous reports. Analyst at Estimize expect earnings to of $13.34 per share, roughly 6% higher than the same period last year. That estimate dropped by 2% in the past 3 months due to ongoing weakness from other travel companies like Expedia. Forecasts predict revenue will increase 17% to $2.35 billion, marking 4 consecutive quarters of double digit sales growth.

The stock continues to trudge higher despite concerns of a pullback in financial performance heading to the new fiscal year. In the past 3 months the stock increased by 8%, whereas Expedia declined by 5%. Historically the stock ticks up 1% immediately through the print and increases another 1% in the month following a report. In the third quarter Priceline recorded gross travel bookings of $18.5 billion, reflecting a 25% increase from a year earlier. Gross profit made similar gains, increasing 22% to $3.6 billion with a significant portion coming from expanding international operations. Net income, on the other hand, suffered a 58% decline owing to nearly $1 billion impairment charge relating to OpenTable. In general, the company appears to be in good financial standing as it continues to grow into different travel channels.

As for Q4, Priceline expects to see similar growth across room nights booked, total gross bookings and profits on strong domestic and international travel volume. China remains a hot destination for travel companies to carve out a foothold as the economy shifts to a consumer driven one. The company’s investment in Chinese travel company Ctrip and the handful of acquisitions made in recent years will be an important source of revenue moving forward.

Another emerging trend originates in the alternative accommodations segment, popularly referred to as the sharing economy. Both Priceline and Expedia bolstered their presence in this sector to more effectively compete with Airbnb. There is still room to grow here, but if Airbnb gets any bigger it could spell trouble.

Priceline still faces pressure from ongoing currency headwinds and macroeconomic uncertainty especially throughout Europe and the United Kingdom. Any additional downturn in the Euro or Pound would be a difficult blow to weather for the company which generated two thirds of its revenue from the region. Do you think PCLN can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

Tuesday, February 14

Wednesday, February 15

Friday, February 17

Fossil (FOSL)

Consumer Discretionary - Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Reports February 14, after the close.

The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings per share of $1.22, one cent above the sell-side consensus and 16% lower than the same period a year earlier. That estimate has decreased 4% since Fossil’s last quarterly report. Revenue is anticipated to decrease 2% to $975 Million, $5M below Wall Street.

What to Watch: Fossil has posted 5 consecutive quarters of negative growth and is about to make it 6. While the company’s bet on smartwatches are expected to drive growth, that innovation has come at a price, and margins for those items are lower than traditional watches. The market for traditional watches and accessories remains challenging, however, which is why Fossil is hoping that diversifying into wearables will get them through the rough patch. Last quarter the company narrowed its 2016 outlook due to these factors.

Cisco Systems (CSCO)

Information Technology - Communications Equipment | Reports February 15, after the close.

The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings per share of $0.58, 4 cents above the Wall Street consensus and up 2% from the same period last year. That estimate has decreased 5% since Cisco’s most recent report in October. Revenue is anticipated to come in at $11.6B, 2% lower than the year-ago results, and $90M higher than the sell-side’s consensus.

What to Watch: Cisco has a history of beating analysts estimates and is looking to extend its streak tomorrow. Cisco’s winning strategy includes expanding its product portfolio beyond switching and routing products to high growth markets such as cyber security and Internet of Things. Partnerships with Salesforce and Pure Storage along with the acquisitions of CloudLock will help secure greater market share and support top line growth. Unfortunately, Cisco still derives a large portion of revenue from networking switches and routers which continue to show limited growth and upside. As this continues to show weakness Cisco’s other products will be relied on more heavily to carry performance. Analysts are expecting this quarter to worsen from previous quarters on the back of weakness in its legacy business. Additionally, increasing competition, weak IT spending, and currency headwinds should play a role in sluggish growth this upcoming quarter.

TripAdvisor (TRIP)

Consumer Discretionary - Internet & Catalog Retail | Reports February 15, after the close.

The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $0.31, 1 cent above the Wall Street consensus. Revenue expectations of $326.6 million are roughly in-line with the sell-side consensus. Expectations have decreased 7% since last quarter, putting YoY growth expectations at -29% for EPS and 7% for sales.

What to watch: Stronger travel trends are emerging as evidenced by robust results from the airlines, and other travel booking sites such as Expedia and Priceline this earnings season. This should bode well for TRIP which has already seen shares rise 11% in 2017. The company has taken on several new initiatives recently, including the very successful Instant Booking, expansion into restaurant reservations and development of mobile offerings. TripAdvisor operates in a very competitive online travel agency market that is largely a two horse race between Expedia and Priceline. TRIP is beginning to close the gap though with the acquisition of CityMaps and a new more user friendly website. Expectations have still edged lower in the past 3 months with analysts calling for negative YoY earnings growth.

Marriott International (MAR)

Consumer Discretionary - Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | Reports February 15, after the close.

The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $0.85, one cent above the Wall Street consensus. The Revenue expectation of $4.85 billion is $30M above sell-side consensus. Expectations have decreased 4% since last quarter, putting YoY growth expectations at 10% for EPS and 30% for sales.

What to watch:  Marriott is likely to benefit for the very same reasons as TRIP. Increasing travel demand along with continued expansion are expected to boost the quarter's results. While expected earnings of growth of 10% would be the lowest amount since Q1 2014, expected revenue growth of 30% would be the highest since MAR has IPO’d in 1998.  Its recent acquisition of Starwood Resorts makes Marriott the largest hotel operator in the world and provides a huge new layer of revenue.

Deere & Company (DE)

Industrials - Machinery | Reports February 17, before the open.

The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings per share of $0.62 on $4.925 billion in revenue, above Wall Street by 11 cents on the bottom-line and $300M on the top. Compared to a year earlier, this reflects a 25% decrease in earnings and a 13% decrease on  sales. Earnings estimates have increased 13% the last quarter, while revenues increased 5%.

What to Watch: Deere and other machinery names have been seeing upgrades to their fundamentals in the wake of the nomination of President Trump and his promise to increase infrastructure spending in the US. Just this year, DE’s stock is up 7.5%. Deere has a great record of surprising to the upside, beating Wall Street estimates on EPS for the last 4 years. Investors are hoping they can do so again when they report on Friday.

Get your estimates for this week in here!

Activision Blizzard (ATVI): Activision’s storied run came to an end after third quarter revenue fell short of the Estimize consensus by nearly $30 million. Since then the stock tumbled by about 5% with investors now calling for a weak fourth quarter. On the bright side, increasing digital revenue from titles like Call of Duty and World of Warcraft should continue to support the top line. More importantly the acquisition of King Digital in early 2016 provides the publisher with an entry point into the fast growing mobile gaming space. Additional Overwatch sales and the continued success of its esports league will also help results for the quarter to be reported. Nonetheless stiff competition from Electronic Arts, Take Two, and Glu Mobile remain near term headwinds. The uncertain consumer outlook for 2017 poses additional problems for Activision which relies heavily on discretionary spending.

What are you expecting for ATVI? Get your estimate in here!

Yelp (YELP): Yelp’s strong third quarter reflects significant improvements in cumulative reviews and local advertising revenue. A large portion of the gains originated from the mobile app which management believes can continue to support financial performance. Unfortunately, weak international sales forced Yelp to reallocate resources out of those regions back to profitable U.S. and Canadian operations. Meanwhile, stiff competition from Uber, GrubHub and even major tech companies like Google, Facebook and Amazon, pose a large threat.  

What are you expecting for YELP? Get your estimate in here!

Pandora (P): Despite ongoing initiatives to right the ship, Pandora missed analysts estimates for two consecutive quarters. During the fourth quarter the company launched Pandora Plus and Premium services to stave off threats from Amazon and Apple but also regain market share from Spotify. The services compliment a pre existing line of premium services starting at $4.99 per month. Pandora also intends on driving growth in the ticketing industry with the acquisition of Next Big Sound, Rdio and Ticketfly and by cutting label costs. More recently the company announced that it will slash 7% of its workforce in an effort to curb costs.

What are you expecting for P? Get your estimate in here!

Nvidia (NVDA): The hottest stock of 2016 will need to post the biggest blowout to surprise investors tomorrow afternoon. Earnings for the third quarter topped analysts’ estimates by over 50% while sales trumped those very same expectations by 18%. Management credited strong growth on the continued success of its core GPU business and significant progress made in VR, self driving cars and data center computers. NVidia has left very little reason to believe that any of these businesses will take a step back in future quarters.

The chipmaker success has been tied to wider adoption of its GPUs not only by gamers but in high growth markets such as data centers, automotive and virtual reality. It also hasn’t hurt that PC gaming is one of the highest grossing forms of entertainment with many gamers relying on high end chips produced by NVIDIA.

Some near term concerns include increasing competition, namely AMD, and unrealistically high expectations. If Nvidia doesn’t meet or beat analysts estimates this quarter it would naturally hurt its stock.

What are you expecting for NVDA? Get your estimate in here

Expedia (EXPE): Travel trends improved throughout the quarter largely thanks to ongoing promotional and discounting activity. Additionally Expedia’s efforts to consolidate the travel market through acquisitions helped support strong traffic trends. The purchase of Homeaway earlier this year provides Expedia with an entry into the fast growing sharing economy. Meanwhile, financial performance is less prone to currency headwinds as the company operates largely in North American markets. New initiatives during the quarter include a partnership with TripAdvisor’s Instant Booking platform and the successful IPO of Trivago in later December. Given the improvements in the travel industry, Expedia looks poised to put on a repeat performance in the fourth quarter

What are you expecting for EXPE? Get your estimate in here!

Tuesday, November 8

Wednesday, November 9

Thursday, November 10

TripAdvisor (TRIP)

Consumer Discretionary - Internet & Catalog Retail | Reports November 8, after the close.

The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings per share of $0.53, one cent below the sell-side consensus and in-line with the same period a year earlier. That estimate has decreased 7% since TRIP’s last quarterly report. Revenue is anticipated to increase 6% to $435.5 million, slightly lower than Wall Street’s consensus.

What to Watch: Stronger travel trends are emerging as evidenced by robust results from the airlines, Expedia, Las Vegas Sands and Priceline this earnings season. This should bode well for often beaten down TripAdvisor. Shares are down 25% in 2016 on two consecutive weaker than expected quarterly results. TripAdvisor operates in a very competitive online travel agency market that is largely a two horse race between Expedia and Priceline. TRIP is beginning to close the gap though with the acquisition of CityMaps and a new more user friendly website, as well as a focus on mobile and Instant Booking. Expectations have still edged lower in the past 3 months with analysts calling for flat earnings growth and a 6% increase on the top line. Foreign currency translate remains a big concern for Q3.

Shake Shack (SHAK)

Consumer Discretionary - Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | Reports November 9, after the close.

The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings per share of $0.16, one cent higher than Wall Street and up 35% from the same period last year. That estimate has increased 2% since SHAK’s most recent report. Revenue is anticipated to increase 31% YoY to $69.95 million, slightly higher than the sell-side consensus. The stock is down 18% YTD.

What to Watch: In its early days on the market, many investors were convinced that Shake Shack was well on its well to replacing Chipotle as the new face of fast casual. Thanks to a string of slower than expected quarters those notions have receded. The burger chain has struggled to sustain high growth and rapid expansion as it goes through the maturation process. These growing pains are likely to continue for the near future until revenue and margins are commensurate with its value. Despite high growth expectations for the quarter, those have declined significantly when compared to the fact that Q2 2015 - Q1 2016 produced YoY profit growth rates in the triple digits. Same-Shack Sales have also fallen, to 4.5% last quarter from 9.9% in the first quarter of 2016. At the moment the stock is considered well overvalued given what they deliver quarter after quarter. Shake Shack shares have fallen 18% year to date.

Macy’s (M)

Consumer Discretionary - Multiline Retail | Reports November 10, before the open.

The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings per share of $0.43 on $5.66 billion in revenue, above Wall Street by 2 cents on the bottom-line and by $37M on the top. Compared to a year earlier, this reflects a 18% decrease in earnings and a 3% decrease on  sales. Earnings estimates have increased by 8% since the last quarter, while revenues have stayed flat. The stock is up 8% since the beginning of the year.

What to Watch: Macy’s is the first of the department stores to report on Thursday morning, followed by Nordstrom and J.C. Penney later in the week. The company is poised to report its 7th consecutive quarterly decline on both the top and bottom-line. Macy’s management has already indicated that the quarter to be reported could see sluggish growth on weak sales and excess inventory. The company is still recovering from its Q1 report which recorded the largest decline in comparable store sales since the Financial Crisis, of -5.6%. Macy’s cut its full year guidance after the report, setting the bar even lower for the department store in the coming months. SSS improved to -2% in Q2, but was still negative. The slowdown has pushed the retailer to be more aggressive with markdowns despite its impact on margins. Weak international tourism trends and currency headwinds have also added another layer of uncertainty around potential profit growth.

Disney (DIS)

Consumer Discretionary -  Media | Reports November 10, after the close.

The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $1.19, 4 cents above the Wall Street consensus. Meanwhile, revenue expectations of $13.56 billion are $10M below the sell-side consensus. Expectations have fallen 3% since last quarter, putting YoY growth expectations at 0% for EPS and 1% for sales. The stock is down 10% for the year.

What to watch: Disney has been at the forefront of takeover talks for both Netflix and Twitter. It's clear that Disney media networks have struggled due to wider adoption of cord cutting behavior. ESPN has been the biggest of its problems as subscriptions and revenue continue to decline. Twitter and Netflix would provide Disney with a non-traditional platform to display its original content. The company’s movie portfolio didn’t include any huge hits in the quarter about to be reported, and may show a decrease due to a tough comparison from a year ago which featured blockbusters such as Ant-Man. Parks & Resorts is still expected to be a big winner for the media giant, with robust visitors numbers from the summer.

Michael Kors (KORS)

Consumer Discretionary - Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Reports November 10, after the close.

The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings of $0.92 per share on $1.095 billion in revenue, 4 cents higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and $13 million above on the top. Compared to a year earlier, earnings are expected to decrease 8% with revenue falling 3%. EPS estimates have been pushed down by 8% since the last quarterly report, and revenue estimates have come down 1%. Even so, the stock is still up 26% YTD.

What to Watch: After weak revenue results from Kate Spade and Coach already this season, luxury brands appear to be unraveling. This doesn’t bode well for Michael Kors who reports its third quarter results on Thursday. With a large exposure to volatile international markets and currency headwinds, both earnings and revenue could see their first downturn in over a year, after just getting by with flat growth in Q2. Estimates are seeing downward revisions activity ahead of its report, typically a sign of a miss on the horizon.

The main focus for KORS will be comps which in the past were driven by new store openings, expanding existing outlets and building out its omnichannel capabilities. But the retail environment is more challenging these days. Luxury brands and longtime status symbols are simply not resonating with consumers like they have in the past. As a result we have seen a great deal of discounting from key brands including Michael Kors. Discounting may very well drive sales but it also puts pressure on margins.

Be sure to get your estimates in for all of these names here!

TripAdvisor (TRIP): Stronger travel trends are emerging as evidenced by robust results from the airlines, Expedia, Las Vegas Sands and Priceline this earnings season. This should bode well for often beaten down TripAdvisor. Shares are down 25% in 2016 on 2 consecutive weaker than expected quarterly results. TripAdvisor operates in a very competitive online travel agency market that is largely a two horse race between Expedia and Priceline. TRIP is beginning to close the gap though with the acquisition of CityMaps and a new more user friendly website. Expectations have still edged lower in the past 3 months with analysts calling for flat earnings growth and a 6% increase on the top line.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ): Jazz Pharmaceuticals along with the rest of the healthcare industry have suffered a down year heading into this pivotal election. Shares of Jazz are down nearly 25% in the past 12 months on a string of weaker than expected financial results. Its key products should continue to gain traction but that will be offset by near term headwinds such as supply chain disruptions, patent litigations and an overall downturn in the industry. Analysts at Estimize still believe Jazz can deliver a slight improvement from the prior quarter with a 7% increase on the bottom line and 15% on the top.

Priceline.com Incorporated (PCLN) Consumer Discretionary - Internet & Catalog Retail | Reports August 4, Before Market Opens

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings per share of $12.85 on $2.60 billion in revenue, 18 cents higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and right in line on the top

Priceline has the largest exposure to Europe amongst its peers. Any indications of Brexit or currency headwinds could send the stock plummeting

Long term, Priceline’s investment in Ctrip provides it access to the hot travel market in China

What are you expecting for PCLN? Get your estimate in here!

Priceline is scheduled to report second quarter earnings tomorrow, after the market closes. The online travel operator isn’t a name that frequently beats or misses its expectations. This quarter might be different though given its exposure to Europe. Between Brexit and the recent terror attacks, travel to Europe has started to slip. Expedia cited waning demand in the region as a key factor of its undesirable results. These sentiments will likely be echoed in Priceline’s conference call tomorrow.

The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings per share of $12.85 on $2.60 billion in revenue, 18 cents higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and right in line on the top. Compared to a year earlier this represents a 4% increase in earnings coupled with 14% sales growth. That said, profit estimates have been cut by 6% in the last 3 months in light of Brexit and currency concerns. In recent months, Priceline has been in the hot seat. The initial sign came during the company’s first quarter earnings call when management issued weak guidance, cautioning investors of difficulties ahead. However, the bigger concern came in late June when the UK voted to leave the European Union which sent major currencies plunging. Priceline currently generates more than two thirds of its revenue from Europe, so this could be a major blow for earnings in the near future.

Another emerging trend is the alternative accommodations segment, popularly referred to as the sharing economy. Both Priceline and Expedia have been bolstering their presence in this sector to compete with Airbnb. There is still room to grow here, but if Airbnb gets any bigger it could spell trouble.

Long term, Priceline still has considerable upside. The company’s investment in Chinese travel company Ctrip and the handful of acquisitions made in recent years will be an important source of revenue moving forward. Investors will likely need to withstand a few down quarters before reaching potentially better results in the future. Do you think PCLN can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!