#$qcom

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Amgen, Ticker: $AMGN

Amgen, $AMGN, comes into the week approaching resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

BlackRock, Ticker: $BLK

BlackRock, $BLK, comes into the week approaching resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

BP, Ticker: $BP

BP, $BP, comes into the week approaching resistance. It has a RSI rising to the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

General Mills, Ticker: $GIS

General Mills, $GIS, comes into the week at resistance. It has a RSI rising at the midline with the MACD crossed up. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

QUALCOMM, Ticker: $QCOM

QUALCOMM, $QCOM, comes into the week at resistance. The RSI is in the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with the July options expiration in the books, saw equity markets showed some signs of tiring after a promising start to the week.

Elsewhere look for Gold to possibly reverse to the upside out of consolidation while Crude Oil consolidates in the top of a broad range. The US Dollar Index looks to bounce in the downtrend while US Treasuries continue in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the slow drift lower in consolidation while Emerging Markets consolidate in a tightening range.

Here are some of the most noteworthy highs and lows from across the markets for Friday, August 7, 2020.

SPDR Gold Shares $GLD Hitting All-Time Highs

U.S. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Hits All-Time Low

20 Years Later, Qualcomm $QCOM Finally Hits New All-Time High

Corn Testing ~13-Year Lows…Again

Biotech ETF $IBB Testing Breakout Level At Former Highs

If you’d like to see these charts as they come out in real-time, follow us on Twitter and StockTwits. And if you’re interested in the daily “all-access” version of all our charts and research, please check out our site, The Lyons Share. You can follow our risk-managed investment process and posture every day — including insights into what we’re looking to buy and sell and when. Thanks for reading!

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EARNING UPDATE $QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated for quarter ending q_Jun18 – Revenue fell but Margins expanded

[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level0)]Please login to read the earning update on QCOM [lwa][/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level0)]QUALCOMM Incorporated reported earnings (EPS) of 0.82 per share for the quarter ending q_Jun18. This is vis-vis 0.24 per share for the previous quarter ending q_Mar18, a growth of 241.7 %. Compared to last year same quarter (q_Jun17), earnings…

[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level0)] Please login to read the transcript. [lwa] [/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level0)][/s2If]

Elliott wants Qualcomm to pay more than $110 Per Share for NXP. Now, NXP shares are down on speculation the deal could unravel.

By Ronald Orol

Broadcom Ltd.'s (AVGO) proposal Monday to buy chip maker Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) in a $130 billion combination could be bad news for Paul Singer's Elliott Management and its activist campaign at NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI).

Broadcom, which was talking to advisers about making a bid for Qualcomm, has offered $70 a share in cash to buy Qualcomm. The bid comes at a time while Qualcomm is in the midst of completing a $47 billion acquisition of NXP Semiconductors, a deal that was announced in October 2016.

Broadcom said its proposal stands whether Qualcomm's current acquisition of NXP is consummated or if it is terminated.

Nevertheless, there is a serious possibility that Qualcomm's NXP acquisition will collapse in the wake of a Qualcomm-Broadcom deal. The possible unraveling of the Qualcomm-NXP deal could be bad news for Elliott Management's Paul Singer, who in August disclosed a 6% stake in NXP, made up of 4.9% common shares and 1.1% in derivatives. The activist fund, which is one of NXP's largest investors, launched a so-called "bumpitrage" campaign to disrupt the deal and push for a higher price.

At the time of Elliott's disclosure shares of NXP traded well above the $110 per share bid that Qualcomm offered in October 2016, which suggested investors expected the chipmaker to pay more. Qualcomm needs 80% of NXP investors to agree to tender their shares for the deal to go through and shareholders have yet to sign off on the deal, which also still needs regulatory approval. Elliott and some large investors may be working together to block the deal from being fully approved, a move that they hope could drive a higher offer price at a significant profit.

On Thursday, Nov. 2, reports suggested that Elliott had enlisted investment bank UBS Group (UBS) to help it drive Qualcomm to pay more, find another bidder or to identify the proper valuation for the Netherlands-based company. Activist investors on occasion hire investment banks to advise them on their campaigns, but it is unusual for an insurgent manager to hire one in this kind of situation. It's possible that Elliott got wind of the potential Broadcom bid and hired UBS to help find another buyer for NXP.

Elliott suggested in its August securities filing that it will negotiate with "potential acquirers" and financing sources. Reports have indicated that Intel Corp. (INTC), Samsung Electronics Co., or Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) could have had interest, although some analyst notes have suggested that NXP could be worth more than $110 per share as a standalone company if the Qualcomm deal fails.

Elliott has come to specialize in the bumpitrage activist strategy for Europe, a play on the word arbitrage, to describe a situation where an activist fund accumulates a significant enough stake to independently or together with like-minded investors block a deal from gaining shareholder approval or to affect a mandatory squeeze out of minority investors. The goal is to accumulate a big enough blocking stake to drive a higher offer price at a significant profit.

However, if the Qualcomm-NXP deal unravels it will mean that Elliott's bumpitrage efforts were unsuccessful. Nevertheless, if the Qualcomm deal collapses and Elliott subsequently can help NXP find another buyer and could still do well with its investment. Alternatively, if Qualcomm wants to fight the Broadcom bid, they will be highly incentivized to get the NXP deal done. If that's true, they could pay a higher price, Elliott is seeking.

According to securities filings, Elliott acquired its stake between June 5 and July 17 at prices ranging from $108.94 a share to $109.65, well below NXP's current trading price. As a result, if it liquidates its position it will likely still be profitable. NXP shares were trading for roughly $115 a share

Elliott has employed the strategy in the midst of some deals in recent years, including a push to have South African Retailer Steinhoff International NV to sweeten its offer for retailer Poundland Group Plc.

-- Chris Nolter contributed to this report.

eBay, Inc. (EBAY) Information Technology - Internet, Software & Services | Reports January 25, After Market Closes

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings per share of 55 cents on $2.43 billion, 1 cent higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and about $20 million on the top

eBay’s transition to an online marketplace includes greater use of “Buy it Now” options, several acquisitions and strategic brand partnerships

eBay currently boasts 165 million active users on 1 billion live listing across 30 countries

What are you expecting for EBAY? Get your estimate in here!

Ebay popularized the concept of online shopping in the late 90s and early 2000s, but now it must reinvent itself to compete with the next wave of online e commerce led by Amazon. eBay’s realigned as an online marketplace come amid a rapidly changing consumer environment. Active buyers now amount to 165 million over 1 billion live listings and across 30 countries. The broad turnaround helped boost comparisons in light of these changing trends and the spinoff of PayPal nearly a year and a half ago. Analysts remain optimistic that the auction site turned online marketplace can report meaningful gains in tomorrow’s fiscal fourth quarter announcement.

The Estimize community forecasts earnings to increase by 10% to 55 cents per share, marking a sharp acceleration from the third quarter. That estimate hasn’t changed in the past 3 months when eBay last reported. Analysts target sales for the period at $2.43 billion, about 4% higher than the same period last year. Historically the stock tends to react well during earnings season, rising about 1% immediately through the print to 3% in the month after. That said if Ebay misses or beats in a dramatic fashion price movement could touch double digits in either direction.Ebay’s transition from an auction site to online marketplace also includes several acquisitions and strategic brand partnerships. The results is a company driven by continually strong performance across its now core marketplace business, eBay classified ads, and Stubhub. Recent acquisitions aim to leverage the immense amount of structured and unstructured data to drive user acquisition and refine search results.

In a similar vein, partnerships with Qualcomm and Mattel will support the other user acquisition efforts to its online properties. The additional rolleout of curated listed on Facebook Messenger provides customers with a better shopping experience.

Apart of eBay, Stubhub continues to gain traction as a popular alternative to Ticketmaster or scalpers for last minute tickets. The company recently rolled out a new product that enables users to reach support through a Skype chatbot. As for MercadoLibre, essentially South American eBay, management recently decided to move on and sell most of its stake in the company, scoring a considerable gain for the quarter. Do you think EBAY can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

QUALCOMM Inc. (QCOM) Information Technology - Communications Equipment | Reports January 25, After Market Closes

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus expects earnings of $1.26 per share on $6.23 billion in revenue, 5 cents higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and about $100 million on the top

Apple’s recent lawsuit along with additional ones in the past puts pressure on key licensing revenue  

Progress in 5G technology, mobile computing, automotive, and IoT bodes well for Qualcomm

What are you expecting for QCOM? Get your estimate in here!

Qualcomm prepares to announce fiscal first quarter results tomorrow after the market closes. More importantly the report and subsequent conference call gives management an opportunity to address the newest round of controversy. Late last week news broke that Apple filed a $1 billion lawsuit against Qualcomm that questions the validity of their royalties agreement. Apple claimed that Qualcomm collected royalties on technologies not associated with the chipmaker. The report followed with a swift sell off and newfound concerns over the outlook of fiscal 2017

For the first quarter, analysts at Estimize expect earnings of $1.26 per share, about 27% higher than the same period last year. That estimate increased by 4% since Qualcomm’s most recent report 3 months ago. Revenue for the period is expected to increase by 7% to $6.23 billion, marking 3 consecutive quarters of positive growth.

Unfortunately investor sentiment turned pessimistic after news of the lawsuit broke, causing shares to plummet 18% in the past 3 months. Historically shares consistently perform poorly immediately through the print and about 5 days following an earnings report. Qualcomm consistently top analyst’s expectations each quarter thanks to the success of its high margin license business. This portion of the company generated about $8 billion in revenue but came under fire following a lawsuit from Apple last week and the FTC in 2015. Its unclear whether Qualcomm is at fault but anytime a company is at the center of multiple lawsuits, it doesn’t bode well for business.

Meanwhile Qualcomm faces multiple threats to the its planned $47 billion takeover of NXP Semiconductors. Trump’s recent rhetoric surrounding mergers and China raise the odds that regulator squash the impending deal. When or if the deal is completed, it should help diversify Qualcomm’s holdings and provide a new layer of support to the top line.

On the bright side, the company’s involvement with Verizon to deploy 5G technologies along with a growing presence in high growth technologies including automotive, networking and mobile computing bodes well. Many new and pre existing products already feature Qualcomm’s flagship Snapdragon processor. As Qualcomm continues to expand and release new products, so has its competitors. Intel and Broadcom, its closest rivals, remain committed to challenging capturing market share through many of the same initiatives. Do you think QCOM can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

Nearly 10 years ago, Steve Jobs took the stage at an Apple (AAPL) keynote event to introduce the first smartphone designed and built by the company. Little did he know that what he unveiled that day would grow to become the most popular consumer electronics product of all time. Its popularity lifted financial performance to new heights for the next decade, making Apple the most profitable company in the world.

But the success of the iPhone doesn’t solely revolve around Apple. In fact, many of its chip suppliers were put on the map as a result of the smartphone. There chipmakers heavily rely on iPhone sales, perhaps to a fault, to carry earnings growth on a quarterly basis. The recent downturn consequently put a damper on sales metrics for Skyworks Solutions, Qorvo and Cirrus Logic while larger suppliers like Broadcom and Qualcomm effectively weathered the storm. With earnings season almost fully underway, Apple phone sales will once again come into focus. More often than not the chip companies provide a fairly clear signal of how phone sales will fair.

Qorvo (QRVO) Information Technology – Semiconductors

Qorvo’s over-reliance on Apple iPhone’s puts investors in a precarious position heading into earnings season. The new iPhone 7 came out of the gates hot, but new reports claim that sales were not as good as previously expected. As demand for the phone continues to fall, don’t expect to see QRVO sales surge in the fourth quarter. Fortunately, like other Apple chipmakers, the company positioned itself into many other high growth markets such as 5G technology and Internet of Things. Revisions activity for the fourth quarter continue to edge down, making the stock’s historical 5% decline during earnings season a realistic possibility.

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) Information Technology – Semiconductors

Skyworks kicks off its fiscal 2017 by looking beyond its two major customers, Apple and Samsung, to drive quarterly results. Moving ahead, the company will be looking to Internet of Things to complement its growing presence in mobile. Its latest IoT application released last week provides additional support to a leg of the company that makes up 25% of total revenue. Whether its autonomous vehicles, smart homes, or routers, Skyworks plays an important role as long as mobile connectivity is involved.  That said, earnings prospects remained relatively muted ahead of earnings season. The Estimize consensus is calling for $1.60 on the bottom line, about compared to the same period last year. Revenue for the period is forecasted to drop by 3% to $905.40 million, reflecting a slight improvement from the previous quarter.

Cirrus Logic (CRUS) Information Technology – Semiconductors

Shares of audio processor specialist, Cirrus Logic, doubled in value in 2016 despite a host of troubles concerning iPhone sales.  Apple is hands down Cirrus’s largest customer and currently accounts for two thirds of the company’s total revenue. This number is down from previous years which is when Apple made up nearly 80% of revenue. Despite the phone’s troubles, Cirrus Logic continues to crush analyst’s estimates, showing the most promise of Apple’s suppliers. Analyst’s at Estimize are calling for earnings per share of $1.64 on $497.71 million in revenue, reflecting an 85% increase on the bottom line and 38% on the top.

Intel Corporation (INTC) Information Technology – Semiconductors

Intel recently won a significant portion of Apple’s modem chip business for the newest iPhone 7 but that didn’t come without controversy. Following the release of the phone many customers complained that Intel’s chip lagged in performance compared to previous provider Qualcomm. The performance tests put the newly founded relationship in question, but recent news out of the Intel camp put those concerns to rest. At the annual Consumer Electronic Show this year Intel unveiled its first modem chip for smartphones that uses 5G technology. The new modem won’t actually reach smartphones users until 2018 at the earliest but many reports suggest that progress has outpaced Qualcomm. Beyond the push in mobile, Intel remains committed to expanding in automobiles, Internet of Things and other higher growth technologies while maintaining its dominance in CPU processors. For the upcoming quarter to be reported analysts at Estimize expect Intel to continue its winning streak, calling for a 4% increase on the bottom line and 6% on the top.

Broadcom Limited (AVGO) Information Technology – Semiconductors

Broadcom’s exposure to Apple dropped considerably after agreeing to merge with Avago Technologies in mid 2015. The merged entity now generates about 15% of total revenue from Apple with exposure to China handsets, data centers, broadband and wireless jumping higher. Greater diversification helped offset any headwinds created by weak iPhone sales over the past year and a half. In fact, Broadcom delivered better than expected earnings and in line revenue for over 2 years and counting. Analyst’s at Estimize believe the company’s growing exposure to new technologies will drive financial performance moving forward. The consensus data is looking for $3.49 per share on the bottom line on $4.09 billion in revenue for the fiscal first quarter. This reflects a 37% increase in earnings with a 125% jump in sales from a year earlier.

How do you think these names will report this season? Be included in the Estimize consensus by contributing your estimates here!