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The worst case is that this is still a management stuck in a time warp and in denial over how much the automobile business has changed in the last few decades and that it is only a matter of time before the government is faced again with the question of whether GM is too "big to fail". Security analysts agree with top management in projecting steady growth of 12% in dividends and earnings over the foreseeable future. The benefit of Johnson & Johnson's dividend plus share growth gave investors a 12.25% rate of return last year. The good news is that revenues have gone up, albeit at an anemic rate (3.56% a year between 2010 and 2014) but the bad news is that these increasing revenues have been accompanied by declining profitability. If the objective of the bailout was GM's survival, it worked, as the company was able to reverse a steep drop in revenues (in 2008) and start making profits again. That recovery came at a significant cost to taxpayers, who lost $11.2 billion in the bailout.

In 2008, the problems came to a head during the financial crisis, as GM had trouble making its debt payments, attracted government attention and a bailout. One is to look at quarterly balance sheets, in additional to the year-end balance sheet, with the intent of finding big changes in debt from quarter to quarter. Note that, if anything, the return on capital (which is based on operating income and invested book capital) is biased towards making a company look better than it really is (largely because accountants are quick to write off mistakes), but even on this measure, only one of the ten largest companies (Audi) earned a return on capital that is higher than its cost of capital in 2014. In fact, mass-market auto companies like Volkswagen, Toyota and Ford have abysmal returns on capital, suggesting that the club that GM is trying to rejoin is not an attractive one.

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